What's old is new again after Week 7 in the NFL

The 2018 Chiefs might have broken football for a couple of years. The spread offense and RPOs finally came to the NFL. And when that got put into the hands of one of the most creative play-callers of all-time with what we now know to be a generational quarterback, you got one of the greatest offensive seasons of all-time. 5,100 yards and 50 TDs from Mahomes (in a 16-game season, mind you). 1,500 yards and 12 Touchdowns from Tyreek Hill. Another 1,400 yards and 10 TDs from a young, pre-Taylor Swift Travis Kelce.

But defenses caught up (they always do). The fun lasted for a couple years, and defensive coordinators started to play 2-high shells, put more DBs on the field, and take away the big play. Starting in 2022, we began to see Mahomes and all of the other pass-heavy, spread offenses struggle.

That brings us to today. Week 7 of the 2024 season, where we have officially come full circle. There are three teams – the Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions, and Baltimore Ravens – that stand above the rest of the league. And they all lead with the run first. Yes, that’s right. The run. Those same Chiefs that broke the NFL in 2018 are 6-0 because they can run the ball and play defense in 2024. Same with Lions. Same with the Ravens. To be honest with you, Same with Bills, Steelers, and on and on and on. We’ve had a couple years of madness in the NFL, but we’re finally back to normal. All is right with the world. And that’s where we start our Week 7 takeaways.

1. The Chiefs have fully morphed into a Running + Defensive powerhouse: We start with the Chiefs, because the are 6-0, the only undefeated team left in the league, and still the best team in the NFL. They went on the road as underdogs (come on, Vegas) to the San Francisco 49ers, and bludgeoned them into submission with a 28-18 victory, capped off by Patrick Mahomes running over a 49ers defender in the end zone. They did so with Mahomes passing for 154 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INTs - and people continue to be surprised that these Chiefs keep winning this way. They shouldn’t be. In the last 5 games the Chiefs have rushed for 184, 139, 101, 128, and 149 yards respectively. And that's WITHOUT their starting running back Isaiah Pacheco. They’re using a potent rushing attack to complement a dominant defense that is 5th in the league in rushing DVOA, 4th overall, and built to put you in 3rd and long and blitz the hell out of you, with one of the most dominant inside rushers the NFL has ever seen. The Chiefs have FULLY morphed into a ball control team who is able to run the ball, control the clock and win with defense. Pair that with an all-world quarterback who knows he just has to make enough plays late to win tight games, and they are basically unbeatable. They’ve now done it for 12 straight games. And it’s still surprising people. It shouldn’t. This is now the new normal for the Chiefs, and quite frankly for the rest of the best teams in the NFL.

   

2. Despite a valiant Vikings effort, the Lions are the best team in the NFC: The only team that might be better than the Chiefs right now? Look no further than the Detroit Lions, who shook off a game effort at home from a previously undefeated Minnesota Vikings team to move to 5-1. And despite what you think of the Chiefs run game, nobody understands the importance of the run game and does it better than the Detroit Lions. They got down 10-0 very quickly on the road on Sunday. So they abandoned the run, right? Wrong. They promptly got back into the game by….running the ball. Jamyr Gibbs ran for 114 yards, David Montgomery for another 31, and Ben Johnson and Jared Goff have perfected the art of play-action off of that run game as he threw for another ruthlessly efficient 22 of 25 for 280 yards and 2 TDs. The Lions have more playmakers at receiver than the Chiefs (and it shows). The Chiefs have more defense. Regardless, the two best teams in the league are built the same and sit atop their respective conferences.

3. The Ravens are the best offensive team in football: The Ravens are the best offensive team in football BY A MILE. In terms of DVOA, the gap between the Ravens and the 2nd best offensive team (the Bills) is as wide as the gap between the Bills and the Eagles, all the way down at #12. And how do the Ravens do it? You guessed it – a generational rushing attack. Are you sensing a theme here? It took a couple games, but it turns out pairing Derrick Henry with Lamar Jackson is absolutely lethal. Borderline unstoppable. The Ravens are rushing for over 200 yards per game, and nearly 6.2 yards per carry. Derrick Henry alone has rushed for 873 total yards through 7 games, and if he keeps this pace up, he's on pace to hit 2,119 yards by the end of the season – that’d be 14 yards more than the most yards ever in a season (2,105 by Eric Dickerson in 1984…albeit in a 16-game season). At this point, it seems like Henry is good for at least one 80-yard run per game, and Lamar Jackson seemingly runs for 9 yards every time he carries the ball without getting touched. Yes, the Ravens have some work to do on defense. But with Roquan Smith, Justin Madubuike, Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey, I’m guessing they will figure out. The Ravens are now steam-rolling people, and there’s a chance this team is even scarier than last year's squad.

4. Mike Tomlin was right: Let’s all say it together. Mike Tomlin was right. In the unanimous pick for the 2024 “Drama Bowl,” we saw the Steelers embarrass the Jets. All we heard all week was that Mike Tomlin was making a mistake by starting Russell Wilson over Justin Fields. Why upset the apple cart on a 4-2 team that was doing what it was supposed to do – win with defense. Add me to the list of people that were skeptical. But it turns out Mike Tomlin knew something we didn’t. The Steelers greatest offensive weapon is a deep threat, jump-ball receiver. Period. That’s his game, that’s what he does. And who better to throw George Pickens jump balls than the ultimate check-down or sling-it deep QB, Russell Wilson. The Steelers offense found something on Sunday primarily because they got George Pickens going. Pair that with an effective run game and a ruthless defense, and you’ve got a winning formula. It won’t go perfect for Wilson. Other teams will figure out the formula. But he gives them a higher ceiling than Justin Fields. And for a team that has gone 9-8 and lost in the first round of the playoffs for the better part of the last decade, upside is what matters the most this season.

   

5. Despair in Cleveland: I could talk about the Jets here (as that franchise is in a world of hurt after another quick fix move went wrong on Sunday night), but there is no one waking up after Week 7 in a worse spot than the Cleveland Browns. Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending achilles injury on Sunday in another loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. In some ways, you could argue this was a relief to Browns fans (they let you know as much by their reaction on Sunday), but make no mistake – despite his time on the field in Cleveland likely being over, the Deshaun Watson debacle will haunt the Browns for years to come. Let’s ignore the off the field stuff – Watson was an objectively bad quarterback over the last 2+ seasons for the Browns. Their quarterback play is likely to get better with him on the sidelines. Either way, they don’t have a promising, future franchise QB on their roster, and Deshaun Watson’s cap hit is $72.9M each of the next two years. Those are franchise crippling numbers for a team that has already squeezed every bit of juice out of their roster with a hamstrung cap. We’re in full rebuild mode here, and the absolute only hope for Cleveland is to tear it down, get the #1 pick, and find your franchise QB through the draft. This version of the Browns is officially over, which might be a good thing.

That’s all for now. Rushing has officially taken over the league in 2024. Here’s to guessing that’s a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future. Defenses always adjust, but it takes a trend a year or two to fully set in. You can’t rebuild rosters overnight, and these offenses are already taking advantage of defenses that we’re built to stop the pass.

Until Next week, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.