Welcome to the 'New Normal'
After Week 5, we are starting to know what is real and not in the NFL
If Week 4 in the NFL was about getting back to normal, let’s call Week 5 the 'New Normal' as we officially settle in to the NFL season. Why 'NEW' normal? Because some things are what we all expected – The Chiefs are still the Chiefs (albeit with guys that are 2-3 years past their prime), Lamar Jackson is still Lamar Jackson (but maybe even better with Derrick Henry as Robin to his Batman), at this point we get it – the Vikings are real contenders.
But there are other things that we expected to regress back to the mean. EVERYONE thought the rattiest of rat lines in the NFL this week was the Commanders -3 against the Browns. Myles Garrett, Jimmy Ward and the rest of the Browns defense were going to finally bring Jayden Daniels back down to earth, right? Wrong. Definitely wrong. The Commanders walloped the Browns 34-13, putting Cleveland in absolute disarray heading into Week 6. And the 49ers, after the shellacking the Patriots last week, we’re finally back to being the dominant, best roster in the league 49ers we all thought...right? Wrong again. Even we expected San Francisco to put the screws on Arizona, they blew a 13-point halftime lead to lose to a middling Arizona team.
The new normal. Now we have to start trusting things we see with our eyes more than what our (presumably) smart brains thought we knew heading into the season. So without further ado, here are our biggest takeaways coming out of Week 5 of the NFL season.
The rookies are legit: Last week we spent several paragraphs gushing over Jayden Daniels, and we could have done the same here to be honest. Except the story is broader this time. Yes, Daniels dominated again – he made a good (although definitely worse than last year) defense look silly, ran past all-pro defenders like they were high schoolers and continues his MVP-worthy run. But something else happened too – his rookie counterparts also performed like they were veterans. Caleb Williams, who looked lost through the first couple weeks, scrambling for his life behind an offensive line that couldn’t stop a nose bleed from getting to the quarterback, finally seems to be settling into a rhythm. Now...he played a BAD Panthers team who must have been lamenting what continues to look like the worst trade in the history of the NFL, but Williams had his first 300-yard day – 20 of 29 for 304 yards, with a pair of Touchdowns to D.J. Moore. He scrambled for another 34 yards on the ground. He finally looked comfortable in the pocket, and looks like he’s officially found his favorite receiver and security blanket in Moore. We want to see it against better defenses, but this is the Caleb Williams we all expected. And Bo Nix continues to look like he has the makings of a solid NFL quarterback 5 weeks into his rookie campaign. That may not sound like high praise for the rookie – but let’s face it, we were all skeptical of Bo Nix coming into the season. And his 60 yard output against the Jets last week didn’t do anything to help his 'check-down Charlie' narrative. But he found his footing against the Raiders this past weekend, throwing for over 200 yards on just 29 attempts (a huge step up from Week 1 where he threw for 138 yards on 42 attempts), and seems like he has the poise required to continue to improve as an NFL quarterback. We even like the fact that he got into a spat with coach Sean Payton on the sideline on Sunday. Being able to respectfully hold his own against a legendary coach bodes well for the future. Throw in the performance of Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, Marvin Harrison Jr., and this has the makings of a legendary rookie class early on in the season. Is this an outlier, or a trend we’ll continue to see in the NIL-era of players staying longer in college? Something to keep an eye on…
The Texans are the contender we all thought they were: Let’s talk about another team led by another young QB who was the only rookie who dazzled last year. We were all worried about the Texans after an uninspired start. But maybe it should have told us something that we were already judging this team by the magnitude and quality of their wins vs. just winning. We do that to the Chiefs, the Bills and the Niners. But are we already doing that to the Texans? Well, yes…we are. And it’s because they are legit contenders that are here to stay. They secured a gutsy win over the Bills that displayed all the things we want to see in a Super Bowl contender – an elite QB, explosiveness, a well-coached defense that flys around and was able to hold one of the league’s best QBs mostly in check, and elite clock-management/decision-making at the end of the game (well done DeMeco Ryans). The Texans held Josh Allen to 130 yards on nine completions. Allen was 9-30. Let me repeat that…9 of 30! That’s a 30% completion percentage for anyone that is counting. For a quarterback that has basically been a cyborg for the last 6 years. And I know the game was close – very close – but before Nico Collins went out with a hamstring injury late in the first quarter (something to monitor here), the Texans looked like they were in control of the game. We shouldn’t worry about the Texans as legit contenders. They can clearly beat the cream of the crop in the NFL, and are obviously going to win their division (which doesn’t take much when the other three teams are the Titans, Colts and Jaguars). They are here to stay, and may have just unseated the Bills as the number one challenger to the Champs.
The best, most frustrating 1-4 team ever? Speaking of challengers to the champs – that was supposed to the Cincinnati Bengals, right? After a year marred by injuries last year, this was the year that Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and team came storming back to claim their rightful place at the top of the AFC. Yes, they started 0-2, but a) they should have beat the Chiefs in Week 2, and b) we’ve come to expect these slow starts by the Bengals. By Week 5 though, the good teams need to be rolling. We expect the Bengals to be rolling. And they were. They put 38 points up against the Ravens, had a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter, and walked out of their home locker room feeling good about beating up on a division rival and being back in the hunt in the AFC North. Oh wait. That’s not what happened? Actually, they blew that 10 point lead, and then when they should have done what they’d been doing all game – moving the ball on the Ravens – to get to a more manageable field goal to win the game, this is what happened instead: 3 runs for essentially no gain, a botched field goal where their rookie punter mishandled the snap, a 50+ yard Derrick Henry run on the next play, Justin Tucker 23-yard field goal. Ball game. They gave away a game they HAD to have, and are now 1-4. Their offense is rolling, but their defense is atrocious. And perhaps more concerning: Zac Taylor is giving off Nick Sirianni vibes right now. Which means he seems like a coach that rode early momentum and an elite roster to a super bowl, but doesn’t have the program or chops in place to repeat it year after year, and keep the locker room together when things go sideways. As Joe Burrow said after the game, this is “not a championship team right now.” Far from it. And if Taylor doesn’t get ahold of things quickly, this could go from bad to worse in a hurry.
The 49ers might be in trouble for real this time: The 49ers had an extremely discouraging loss to the Cardinals on Sunday, as they blew a 13-point halftime lead, 10-point 4th quarter lead, and we’re outscored 14-0 in the second half. At home. On one hand, we’ve come to expect this from Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, and they deserve the benefit of the doubt. It’s well documented that Shanahan and the Niners are known to get off to a slow start or two, but they always seem to find their footing in time to be there at the end. Except this time feels different. And the reason it feels different is because they look (and feel) like an aging roster. This has always been a delicate build, with a top heavy roster that needed to stay healthy. But an interesting thing happened on Sunday. Even when healthy, that top end is starting to look a little less “top-end.” Deebo Samuel looks legit old. He couldn’t even come close to separating against a Cardinals secondary that has not been good. And we always knew that the offensive line was a weak point, and the place where they were saving money to spend it on their stars elsewhere. It came back to haunt them in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs, and it did so again in the second half against the Cardinals. The last two weeks Purdy ran around like a magician to give himself time to make throws. But this week he couldn’t make it happen, and didn’t have enough time to throw in the second half. It finally came back to haunt him on the last play of the game, when pressure turned into a deflection, which turned into a pick. Game over. Sure, it will help if (when?) McCaffrey comes back. But let’s be real – Jordan Mason is putting up McCaffrey numbers. He rushed for 89 yards on Sunday, and has rushed for 536 yards (6.4 yards per attempt) through 5 games this season. You’re not getting much more out of CMC. The bigger issue is that the rest of the pieces are getting older, the offensive line is not good, and the defense has been declining for a couple years now. It might finally be time to worry in Santa Clara.
The Cowboys might have saved their season on Sunday Night (or Monday morning): Let me start by saying this – I’m not sure the Cowboys performance on Sunday was deserving of making our top 5 takeaways. In fact, we very easily could have gone the other way, and used this as a moment to talk about how the Steelers offense looked, and how Mike Tomlin is somehow attempting to go 9-8 AGAIN for the 30th season in a row despite us thinking the Steelers might actually be good. But we chose to talk about the Cowboys because they gutted out a win which they ABSOLUTELY had to have. Why? Their next six games: vs. Lions, at the Niners, at Atlanta, vs. the Eagles, vs. the Texans and at Washington for the new NFC East favorite Commanders. Every single one of those game is loseable, and if they went into that stretch at 2-3, I’m not sure they make it out alive. Now at least they have some momentum, coming off a game where despite not playing their best, their ‘highest-paid QB in the league’ did what the highest paid QB in the league is supposed to do – led a game winning drive on the road to secure a victory. It was a gutty performance by Dak, doing it mostly throwing to everyone EXCEPT his all-world receiver CeeDee Lamb. I’m not going to pretend the Cowboys aren’t dysfunctional. They absolutely are, and that starts with a clearly strained relationship between Dak and Lamb, for whatever reason. But managing to fight through the dysfunction to win the last two games is not nothing. It’s something. This team at least knows they can win tough games. They might have found something in Rico Dowdle, and once they get their key defenders back into the lineup, at least they have a punchers chance.
That’s it for Week 5. If you’ve made it this far, you are a loyal reader, an educated fan, and are starting to adjust your point-of-view on what normal is for the 2024 NFL season. Now we move onward to test these theories in Week 6. As always, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.
