The dust settles on a weird Week 2
Week Two is always the most interesting Week in the NFL. After week 1, all the pundits (like us) have a million takes about what they think they saw and knew. And then Week 2 happens, and it all changes. Why? Well – small samples sizes (coming from a data company). When we have one data point on a team, or a player, or a coach, it can be heavily skewed by the team they played or the situation they faced in Week 1. A couple examples:
No one was THAT excited about the Saints after they beat-up on the Panthers. Now, they are.
Same for the Vikings. Beating up on Daniel Jones didn’t do much for us. But beating the 49ers? Now we’re paying attention.
We were all worried about Buffalo after a lackluster performance at home vs. Arizona. It turns out, both of those teams might be really good.
We thought the Ravens were still title contenders after a narrow loss the Chiefs on opening night. Now? We’re not so sure.
And maybe, just maybe, we shouldn’t leave Deshaun Watson for dead (I’m not sold on this one quite yet).
Or take us here at Field Vision. Last week we went 18-2 in our Best Bet recommendations, and 63% for the Matchup Index overall. This week? Well, let’s just say we didn’t do as well. Yes, we had some bad beats and injuries that hurt (the over on Cooper Kupp and the Dolphins-Bills game to name a few), but nevertheless, we’re sitting at 5-10-2 so far in Week 2. That puts us at 23-12-2 overall. Still very, very good – but from a data perspective, we’d call this a reversion to the mean. We’ll be back crushing it next week.
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Alright, enough about us. Let’s get to some of our biggest takeaways from the Weekend’s action.
Is the NFC South the best Division in Football? I’m kind of joking, but also not really. The Saints, who I certainly expected to ‘regress to the mean’ after a 47 point outburst against the lowly Panthers, did the opposite. They SHREDDED the vaunted Cowboys defense, at one point scoring touchdowns on six consecutive drives. SIX! That’s insanity. Offensive Coordinator Klink Kubiak has the the Saints offense looking balanced, explosive and FAST. It is quite the transformation from what we saw in the first year of Derek Carr as Saints QB, and its safe to say the mumurs about Spencer Rattler being the second coming of Mahomes have died down, and the Saints may be here to stay. And what about the Bucs? They were in a similar boat. No one really wanted to take them seriously after winning the division last year, beating the Eagles in a playoff game, and then taking Detroit to the brink in round 2 of last year's playoffs. And then, no one wanted to take them seriously after throttling Washington in Week 1. It’s just the Commanders with a rookie QB, right? Well, now it’s hard for anyone to ignore. This time they went into Ford field and handled the Lions, with a combination of sturdy defense and a flexible offense. Baker Mayfield might finally be growing into his own as both a quarterback and leader, and we might have all forgotten just how good Todd Bowles is as a defensive coordinator. These two teams are both 2-0, and there is no reason to think that we shouldn’t take both of them VERY seriously.
Sam Darnold for MVP? Or Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores for coaches of the year. Either way – just like the Saints and Bucs mentioned previously, after week 1 we were suspect of the Sam Darnold-led Vikings. And why wouldn’t we be? They beat up on Danny Dimes and the Giants, who might be the only team in the league that can challenge the Panthers for worst squad to this point in the season. But this week they played the Niners. The Kyle Shanahan-led, beat the socks off of Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 Niners. And all Darnold did was go 17/26 for 268 and two TDs, including a 97-yarder to all-world receiver Justin Jefferson. Add on what Brian Flores did - No, he didn't hold the 49ers vaunted offense in check, but certainly handled them much better than Robert Saleh and the Jets top-tier defense did last week, and the Vikings look like a complete, well-rounded team with two key characters – Sam Darnold and Brian Flores – as full-fledged reclamation projects that might be finding their footing under the guidance of Head Coach Kevin O’Connell.
Challengers to the Chiefs in the AFC. Since Tom Brady defected for the NFC and passed the torch on to Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, we will always talk about the AFC in relation to the Chiefs. They’ve earned it, and showed again on Sunday why they are the champs, winning another tough game even when they didn’t play their best (and yes, it was absolutely a pass interference call, and how quickly people forget that the Chiefs had an EVEN LONGER gain wiped out on the play before by a hands-to-the-face penalty). And as long as we talk about the Chiefs, their greatest challengers have been framed through the lens of the other elite, young QBs in the AFC – Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Two of those teams – the Bengals and Ravens – are 0-2. Both lost to the Chiefs. And I’m not convinced that the Bengals, despite another game effort against the Chiefs, have solved all of their problems. Baltimore lost to the Raiders at home – which can’t happen if you claim to be a serious contender. That leaves the Bills. The Bills we’re supposed to be down this year. It turns out they're not. Why? Because they have Josh Allen – and we’ve talked ad nauseam about him and Mahomes being in a tier of their own. They shellacked the Dolphins on Thursday (and to be clear, it was a shellacking before Tua got hurt), and are here to stay in the AFC. The other team who wants into the party? The Texans. They are 2-0, which is two wins better than either the Ravens or Bengals. I’m not entirely sure either team they’ve played yet is good. So it’s a bit of a wait and see – but they are on the doorstep and look hungry. And CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Will Anderson and Dereck Stingley Jr. are all beasts.
The….Steelers…are in control of the AFC North. Just like we thought, right? This is always one of the toughest divisions in football, and this year will be no different. But when we at Field Vision, like most others, discussed who we liked to win the AFC North this year I don’t even think we mentioned the Steelers. Not once. It didn’t seem to make sense. We knew the Ravens would be back, and probably better with Derrick Henry. The Bengals would be healthy and hungry to prove that last season was a blip. And the Browns – well they don’t have any good quarterbacks, but they have the best defense in the league, right? And of course, 2 weeks in the division in total has 3 wins, and 2 of them belong to the 2-0 Steelers. What we know is that Mike Tomlin is a good coach. Is it possible that their defense is legitimately elite? And that Justin Fields is a good fit to what Arthur Smith wants to do on offense to compliment an elite defense? It sure looks like it two weeks in. Yes, the teams they’ve played so far haven’t been great. The competition will get tougher. But here’s to guessing this version of the Steelers might be more formidable than what they’ve put on the field with Kenny Pickett the last couple years.
Tua. It was a strange week in the NFL, and it started off on a somber note Thursday night, as Tua Tagovailoa went out of the game against the Bills with yet another concussion. Let me start by saying this: I agree 100% with Mike McDaniels point of view that this is HIS career, and HIS life. Which means Tua and Tua alone should own how he wants to deal with this latest setback (and thank goodness it seems like he is okay, and was able to walk off the field under his own power). When it comes to concussions, one thing is clear: different players are different, different bodies are different, and there is no doubt that repeated concussions make it much more likely that you will sustain one moving forward. What seems clear to me is Tua’s body at this point is unable to sustain contact the way that most other NFL players are. In an ironic twist, Damar Hamlin is the one that made the tackle on the latest play that gave Tagovailoa a concussion. It wasn’t a vicious tackle, it wasn’t a violent collision – it was just a tackle. Which might tell Tua everything he needs to know about whether or not playing football moving forward is a good idea. As McDaniels said, it is 100% Tua’s decision. I hope he listens to what his body is telling him.
I think that covers it for this week. It was a weird week of football for sure, but as always – the NFL delivers in one way or another. We took it on the chin – so did a lot of others. We’ll be back at it for Week 3, stronger than ever.
As always, we look forward to the conversation, debate, and your feedback. Hit us up at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.
