Week 15 Thursday Night Preview: Rams vs 49ers

If you look at the top of the NFC West standings, you won't find the Rams or the 49ers sitting on top. The Seattle Seahawks own sole possession of the West and only have the Rams left to play in the division. That doesn't spell disaster for either one of the teams playing on Sunday.

The Seahawks have yet to beat the Rams this year and have split their games with the 49ers (they won both versus the Cardinals). Seattle will have to play the Packers and the Vikings in consecutive weeks at home, followed by a road game against the Bears. All three of those teams could be a roadblock to the playoffs for the Seahawks.

That makes this Thursday Night game so much more meaningful. For both the Rams and the 49ers, this is a mini-playoff game settled at the beginning of the final playoff push. The Rams are coming off a tremendous win against the Bills, which saw the offense light up the scoreboard. LA is currently 7-6, healthy, and 6-2 in their last eight contests.

Sean McVay and crew look to be snowballing towards the end of the season. Three of their last four games will be against divisional rivals. The first of those will be this Thursday against San Fransisco, a team they beat back in September at home.

The 49ers, on the other hand, have not had any luck in the injury department. Their laundry list of injured main characters has made them a shell of their once elite starting roster. Still, San Fransisco is within striking distance of the divisional title.

Seattle is 8-5, with the Rams at 7-6. With a win on Thursday, the 49ers can tie the Rams. The remaining schedule doesn't bode well, though, for Kyle Shanahan and Co. After the Rams, the 49ers will travel to the pesky Dolphins, play the best team in the league in Detroit, and finish in Arizona to face a Cardinals team that has already beat them at home.

If they make the playoffs, it has to start with this game. Win, and you have a chance. Lose, and your dreams of the post-season are pretty much over.

When the Rams have the ball:

The 49ers' defense has one strength: the secondary, which ranks eighth in EPA versus Dropbacks. Overall, the defense is #8 in DVOA, so even with all the injuries, there is plenty of talent to do damage against the opposition.

Interestingly, the Rams are seeing the fourth most man coverage in the NFL and are 17th in success rate against it. The 49ers don't play much man and run zone on ~75% of their snaps, where they are eighth in EPA.

These teams know each other intimately, and there won't be many surprises. San Fransisco doesn't blitz but lets the front four do the work. If Bosa is out, that hinders the 49ers' ability to get to Stafford. Right now, the veteran quarterback is destroying all secondaries. The key to this game offensively for the Rams will be on the ground. San Fransisco ranks 20th in run DVOA.

Still, they are in the top ten in explosive runs and can force the Rams into running outside. If the ground game can get going and the offense stays balanced, there isn't much the 49ers can do to stop the Rams.

When the 49ers have the ball:

A lot has been made about the Rams' youthful and aggressive front. LA sits 11th in Pass Rush Production (PRP) and can manufacture pressure through blitzing (16th) or letting the young line attack the quarterback on their own. Sometimes the pressure can clean up the deficiencies in the secondary.

Overall, the Rams are 28th in EPA and 22nd in DVOA. Under DC Chris Shula, the Rams are diverse and run Dime (six DBs) the third most in the NFL. Similar to the 49ers, they are fifth in zone coverage usage, but unlike San Fransisco, they are 29th in zone coverage EPA.

The game on Thursday has all the hallmarks of an old-fashioned Western shootout. Though the 49ers have more bullets in their chamber defensively, the matchup still favors Stafford and Co. San Fransisco quarterback Brock Purdy, who will be tasked with keeping pace. LT Trent Williams will not be playing, and the 49ers' offense tends to struggle when he is out.

Like the Rams, the 49ers must take advantage through the air. Jauan Jennings is having a tremendous year and has gone over 90 yards in three of his last six games. Jennings has taken over the role left by the injured Brandon Ayuik. Deebo Samuel and Ricky Pearsall are the other two receivers. George Kittle continues to be a matchup nightmare.

The ground game must get going for the Rams' defensive line to stay honest. Even without Williams, the 49ers should be able to get a push in between the tackles. Staying committed to the run will allow San Fransisco to control the ball and limit the time Stafford has the ball.

These teams are mirrors of each other, but the 49ers have a much better defensive roster. So far this year, that hasn't meant much.

Follow Cody Alexander at MatchQuarters.com, Twitter/X, Instagram, or TikTok.

As we dive in, we look forward to the conversation, debate, and your feedback. Hit us up at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.