Week 14 Thursday Night Preview: Packers vs Lions

The Lions, tied for the best record in the NFL, are limping toward the finish line. They've still been lucky not to have catastrophic injuries to their staple players, especially on offense, but there are some concerns as the Detriot makes their final push. Every win counts with the Packers at 9-3 and the Vikings at 10-2.

Detroit wants to lock up home-field advantage. That means their high-flying offense can play indoors throughout the playoffs and, more importantly, at home. The offense is built for a playoff run. It relies on a two-headed monster in the run game, and Jared Goff has been fantastic since his brief struggles at the beginning of the year.

The Packers are coming to Detroit to play the second of their two matches. In the first game in Lambeau, the Lions won 24-14. Offensively, both teams are evenly matched, sitting #3 and #4 in offensive DVOA. Defensively, the Lions get the nod. They have the second-best defense behind the Vikings heading into Week 13. Green Bay sits twelfth.

When the Packers have the ball:

One glaring issue the Packers' offense has entered this game is its lack of success against man coverage. Green Bay ranks 29th in success rate against man coverages. Jordan Love and Co. will face a Lions team that wants to run most of its coverages from a man-free look. Detroit runs the highest percentage of Cover 1 in the NFL at ~37%, is second in success rate, and is fifth in EPA. In short, they are built to run man coverage.

Oddly enough, the Packers feast on zone, where they are sixth in success rate. Given Lions DC Aaron Glenn's affinity for running man coverage, I don't see that trend changing. For Green Bay to win, their receivers will have to step up. When the Packers catch the Lions zone, that doesn't necessarily mean they will be hitting home runs. Detroit runs some of the lowest rates of Cover 3, which is what Green Bay destroys.

With the likelihood of the passing game being tough sledding, the Packers will need to control the game on the ground. If there is an even matchup, it's on the ground. Detroit has played excellent run defense all year but has seen injuries in recent weeks dwindle their numbers in the box. If the Packers can force Detroit to load the box and stop the run, it might get them into more zone coverage (eyes on the ball) and open up space for their play-action passing game. That is the pathway to success for Green Bay.

When the Lions have the ball:

Green Bays secondary is young and has a star in Xavier McKinney at Safety. Jarie Alexander is also playing at a more competitive level than last year. The lack of a second CB and rookie Safety Evan Williams' injuries have made the secondary unit a rollercoaster all year. Rookie Safety Javon Bullard has had to bounce around from Nickel to Deep Safety and back again. Nickel Keisean Nixon has had to move full-time outside and has held his own.

Still, the unit will face one of football's most efficient passing attacks. The Lions are #1 in completion percentage, success rate against man coverage, and when teams opt not to blitz. On the ground, Detroit is #1 in explosive rate and the best 11-personnel running team in the league. They also carry the league's lowest third-down distance at 6.3 yards.

Detroit has a clear advantage in the passing game and should be able to move the ball effectively through the air. Where Green Bay could cause issues is in the ground game. The Packers have the 12th-best run DVOA in the NFL, but they know the Detroit run game and should have some answers from their previous meeting. If they can make the Lions offense predictable and cause issues for a beat-up Lions O-line, they can keep this game within striking distance.

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