Week 13 Thanksgiving and Black Friday Preview

The traditional names are here, and we even get two extra games: one on Thanksgiving night and the Prime Black Friday matchup. With everyone gathered around family and games spread across the weekend, here's a primer on what to watch this Thanksgiving.

Bears vs. Lions:

Detroit has been tearing through their schedule since they sputtered at the start of the season. Jared Goff looks back to his old self, and the offense once again is roaring with a two-headed monster in the backfield, one of the best offensive line units, and one of the best intermediate receivers in the league. OC Ben Johnson has created the perfect balance of power and finesse. Most pundits focus on the offense, but the front office's moves to solidify the defense have been the catalyst to this season's success. Adding Carlont Davis (Buccaneers) and drafting Terrion Arnold locked down the two cornerback spots, freeing up the Safeties, Brian Branch and Kirby Joesph, to excel.

What looked to be a promising season for Chicago has quickly fallen to the wayside. The NFC North currently has two of the best teams in the Lions and Vikings, with the Packers also sitting at 8-3 and in the driver's seat for a wildcard spot. Rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams' play, has been chaotic, and the run defense has completely vanished. That doesn't bode well for a Lions team looking to pummel their opponents. The Bears have a solid secondary, which can cause issues for Goff and his receiving corps if they can get pressure; that is one thing they have been able to do this year. The key for the Bears will be to stop the run without selling out. If they can force Goff into being a dropback passer, that opens up the opportunity to let the Eberflus' zone defense lose. And that's a big 'if.'

Giants vs. Cowboys:

The Giants looked abysmal against the Buccaneers and have now dropped six straight. They can only hang their hat on their run game, which isn't even top-ten in most advanced metrics. Dallas has struggled to stop the run at times this year but has gotten better. Though the Commanders' quarterback ran for over 70 yards on designed runs, the rest of the backfield struggled to find traction against an improved Cowboys defense. That doesn't bode well for the Giants, who have little to offer in the passing game. They can't even get targets for their star rookie receiver, Malik Nabors.

Cooper Rush understands his role. When Dak is hurt, he comes in, distributes the ball, and, for the most part, wins games. Dallas has struggled at home all year and is currently on a five-game losing streak in the house that Jerry built. There are a ton of issues inside and outside of the locker room, but the Cowboys put on a vintage performance against the Commanders in Washington. Dallas is also getting healthy and will not want to drop six in a row, especially on Thanksgiving in front of a national audience. There is blood in the water, especially with the comments coming out of the locker room in New York. If the Giants are going to win, it will stem from their defense's ability to pressure the quarterback, which they weren't able to do against the Bucs.

Dolphins vs. Packers:

It will be dipping below freezing when Miami plays the Packers on Thanksgiving night. The stats don't lie about the southern most NFL team. The Dolphins struggle when they travel north, and the temperature dips below 32 degrees. Tua made sure to comment on that post-game this past week. Regarding matchups, the Dolphins are looking to be getting back on track. If one team can make a late push for playoff contention in the AFC, it's them. Right now, they sit 5-6 but are getting healthy, and Tua looks to be as accurate throwing the ball as ever. The Packers' defense is healthy, too, and ascending. Miami will try to keep things in the intermediate and lean toward the speed of their receivers. As for the run game, that will be key in the cold. The run game is one of the most explosive in the NFL but has the highest stuff rate (zero or negative yardage run). The feast or famine concepts on the ground aren't what a playoff team makes.

Green Bay's only three losses are to the top three teams in the NFC: Lions, Vikings, and the Eagles. Though this is an out-of-conference game, it proves the Packers can win in a playoff-like scenario. Miami is in a must-win situation every week now, and with everyone seemingly healthy, they will want to establish a win on the road and in the cold. Recently, the Dolphins' defense has been putting together some good games, but their rushing defense is sometimes lacking. Matt LaFleur loves to run from the shotgun and Trips (3x1) formations. That is something Miami tends to struggle with. The spread concept of the Packers forces most teams from playing a lot of man coverage. By all advanced metrics, Miami's defense is in the middle of the pack and will face one of the top offenses in the NFL. Though the weather will be cold, this game has the makings of a shoot-out.

Friday Night on Prime

Raiders vs. Chiefs:

When Kansas City and Las Vegas play, you never know what will happen. Last year, the Raiders stole a victory in Arrowhead. Las Vegas will be without starting quarterback Gardner Menshew, but Aidan O'Connell is rumored to be ready to practice. Offensively, the Raiders are at a major disadvantage on paper. The Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the NFL and can make the game one-dimensional. If the Broncos game reflects what this matchup could be, the Raiders will have to pass to win. There will be opportunities. If there is an area of concern in Kansas City, it is the secondary. The Panthers were able to take some shots, even against Kansas City's pressures. These divisional games are always closer than they appear.

The Chiefs are near the bottom of the league in explosive plays, but they are one of the most efficient units in the league. Though they are not scoring 30+ points like the Lions, they are moving the ball and scoring. Kansas City still sits in the top ten in DVOA. Coincidentally, one area of strength for the Raiders is deep. They are one of the best defenses in the NFL when teams throw over 20 yards, but not much else. Last year, the Raiders, along with the Broncos and Bears, had a surge on defense to finish '23. The Broncos have established themselves as one of the top units, but the Bears (run game fell off a cliff) and the Raiders have struggled to recapture their momentum. Mahomes and Co. should be able to move the ball through the air, as the ground game is a wash. The Chiefs should win if the offensive line can handle Maxx Crosby and limit his ability to pressure Mahomes.

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As we dive in, we look forward to the conversation, debate, and your feedback. Hit us up at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.