Week 13 Takeaway - Running the ball has never been more important in the NFL
Week 13 is always one of the most fun weeks of the NFL season because of when it falls in the calendar – over Thanksgiving week/weekend. We get an elongated schedule, three games on Thanksgiving and another on black Friday, which is fun for all of us that like to ignore family-time in lieu of watching football. It's glorious.
But the other thing it tactically means is that it gets cold outside. And its only going to get colder. Which has very real consequences on football. We start to hear announcers say things like, ‘This team is built for January,’ or in the case of Mike McDaniel, we see coaches throwing ice cubes at his players. (Side note: he might want to start taking the weather thing a little bit more seriously)
We’ve talked about the value of running the ball all year. But never has the importance of running the ball shown up more than this past weekend, as the weather has officially started to turn. I have two games seared into my memory: 1) Eagles vs. Ravens – the two best running teams in the league. And 2) Bills vs. 49ers – where one team dominated with the run in a snowstorm, and the other lost its two best running backs to injury, effectively ending their season.
We also had the two ‘best’ teams in the league – the Lions and the Chiefs – almost lose games because they went away from the run in the second half, and it nearly cost them their position as 1-seeds in their respective conferences.
Never has running the ball been more important to success in the NFL. Never.
Here are the top 5 teams by rushing DVOA in the league after Week 13:
Baltimore
Detroit
Philadelphia
Buffalo
Green Bay
For this week’s takeaways, we want to focus on Three games that continued to tell us just how important running the ball is to winning the modern NFL, especially as the calendar turns to December and beyond.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. the Baltimore Ravens
The Eagles went into Baltimore and DOMINATED the Ravens, particularly in the second half. And make no mistake about it – don’t let final score fool you, this game was not as close as the 24-19 score indicated. If I had told you before the game that Jalen Hurts would be 11 of 19 for 118 yards and A.J. Brown would only have 66 yards, who do you think would have won the game? Well, the Eagles did by winning the game the way they’ve been winning games all season – they wore the Ravens down in the run game, and dominated with Saquon Barkley in the second half. Barkley went 23 for 107 against one of the top 3 run defenses in the NFL, and what was most important (and impressive) is that the Ravens couldn’t stop the Eagles run game when it mattered most and both teams knew it was coming.
On the other side of the ball? Jackson threw it 36 times for 237 yards. He ran for another 79, but 50 of those were on the last drive of the game, when the outcome was already decided. In this game, Lamar’s desire to be a pocket passer actually hurt him. He fell exactly into the trap Vic Fangio and the Eagles wanted him to – trying to beat them in the passing game, when (like his mom had suggested) if he had decided to pull it down and run in some key situations, the outcome of the game could have looked different.
In a matchup of the two best running teams in the NFL, the Eagles won the battle in the trenches. Consequently, they also won the game and are in a strong position to challenge the Lions for the 1-seed in the NFC.
Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers
Fast forward to Sunday night, in a snowstorm in Buffalo. This game was less of a surprise – most of us expected the Buffalo Bills to beat the 49ers. But count me as one of the people that expected the 49ers to put up more of a fight. After all, this is a team that has been to 4 out of the last 5 NFC championship games, 2 out of the last 5 Super Bowls, went to Green Bay in late January and out-toughed Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay packers in 2022, and have become known for their physicality, toughness, and ability to run the football better than almost anyone else.
THAT 49ers team – the one with Fred Warner and George Kittle and CMC – wasn’t going to get completely out-toughed, beat and bludgeoned with their season on the line, right? Well, they did. It wasn’t close. And it wasn’t close because Buffalo has become the big, bad running bully of the AFC. They won 35-10, and Josh Allen threw 17 times for 148 yards. They rushed for 220 yards, or 6 yards per carry. Watching it, it felt like 10. This is how Buffalo WANTS to play, and has built itself to play in the post-Stefon Diggs era, and it’s working. The Bills are 4th in the league in rushing DVOA, and are best when Josh Allen doesn’t have to throw the ball that much, but can put on his Superman cape (to run, throw, or apparently catch it) when his team needs him to. This Buffalo team, powered by its running game, looks like a freight train that is the favorite right now to come out the AFC.
San Francisco, on the other hand, is in trouble. Real trouble. Not only did they lose McCaffrey for the season in this game, but he hasn’t looked the same since he came back this season. And never has it been more clear that this version of the 49ers is an aging roster that isn’t the avengers of old. And while it’s a small sample size – we might be getting our answer to the question of whether or not “Brock Purdy” can carry a non-Pro Bowl roster? It doesn’t look like he can. The 49ers are essentially done for 2024, and if their not careful this current Super Bowl window might be closed.
One More Game that told us something about the running the football
Chiefs vs. the Raiders
We’re not going to talk about how the league is rigged, the officials gave this game to the Chiefs, or the Chiefs are just downright lucky, and the worst 11-1 team in the history of the league. Enough people are giving you all of those talking points. But what I will hit on is how the Chiefs abandoning the running game on Black Friday put them in the position to (almost) lose this game against the Raiders.
Andy Reid does this from time to time, but he completely forgot about the run on Friday against the Raiders. Reid threw the ball on 75% of the Chiefs plays, even when the Chiefs were very clearly struggling to block Maxx Crosby or anyone else with their left tackle position. Even with Isiah Pacheco back, Reid only gave him the ball 7 times (which he turned into 44 yards). The Chiefs only ran the ball 6 times after halftime as they watched their 13-3 lead slowly dwindle.
The only good news for the Chiefs? With Pacheco back, they may be able to get back to a more efficient running game, and lean on that a little bit more as the calendar turns to December/January.
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In a year that has been dominated by a resurgence of the run-game, and a resurgence of the running back, never has running the ball been more important than at this very moment. The calendar has officially turned to December. It’s cold, and going to get colder. The teams that can run the ball (and stop the run) are the teams that will be the toughest outs come January.
That's all for now. Until Next week, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.