Week 11 Thursday Night Preview: Commanders vs Eagles

The Washington Commanders—yes, that team—are a half-game back from the NFC East divisional lead. They will travel to rival Philadelphia to take on the Eagles for the lead in the division. Dallas is Dak-less for the year and more worried about stadium aesthetics than playing football on the field that Jerry built (they are now 0-5, dating back to last year). The Giants are also in a free fall, having lost five straight.

Ironically, for New York, the man they gave up (for free!) to their rivals in Philly is having a tremendous year. Instead of paying Saquon Barkley, opting to pay defunct quarterback Daniel Jones, they let him walk to the Eagles. Barkley has been electric, rushing for almost 1,000 yards this season.

The Eagles are on a five-game win streak, and the cries for Head Coach Nick Siriani's head have paused for the moment. Jalen Hurts appears to be back on track and growing in confidence. AJ Brown is healthy and looks like one of the best receivers in the NFL. Defensively, the young secondary players are gelling, and Vic Fangio's defense seems to be coming together as the meat of the schedule is about to commence.

Washington's rookie quarterback, Jaden Daniels, looks to be the part and has ascended the organization from its quagmire for years. All eyes were on Chicago's Caleb Williams, but his recent struggles have only solidified Daniels as QB1 in his draft class so far. The offense has cooled off a bit in recent weeks.

There are concerns as the Commanders have not beaten a quality team this year. Still, they have feasted on the NFL's last-place schedule. Notably, the defense has slowly gotten battered all year, and the move to trade for the Saints' Marshon Lattimore should give the defense a much-needed boost.

For Washington, this week marks their true march to the playoffs, with four games remaining against the Eagles and Cowboys. The latter appears to be dead on arrival, and the Commanders can rack up some wins to give them a buffer against the Eagles if they lose this game. Win, and they most likely control their destiny.

The Eagles' path to success is much more straightforward with Dallas out of the way. The Commanders are the upstart here and have not beaten a high-quality opponent. Their best win right now is an early victory against the Cardinals, who sit 6-4 atop the NFC West. Still, Washington is dangerous if their offense is humming and puts up some points. Let's take a look at this classic NFC East battle.

When Washington has the ball:

The game on Thursday night will be strength on strength. Jayden Daniels, with the help of Kliff Kingsbury, has transformed the offense in Washington. Daniels is the front runner for OROY, has thrown for over 2,100 yards, and is the leading rusher on the team.

All eyes are on Kingsbury, but Head Coach Dan Quinn's underrated hire was to pair Kingsbury with long-time NFL coach Anthony Lynn, who brings along an NFL run game. So far, the pair has worked out tremendously. The Commanders are #2 in DVOA through ten weeks, and though the scoring has cooled off a bit, the offense is still finding ways to score and win games.

The Commanders are second in pressure rate, which keeps their rookie quarterback clean in the pocket. Washington will face the #2 team in zone coverage efficiency, which is ranked fifth. Daniels and Kingsbury have feasted on zone coverage all year and will go up against one of the best zone defenses in the NFL.

If there is a mismatch, it is in the ground game. For a while now, the Eagles have struggled against the run. DC Vic Fangio has a lax approach to the run game, but the defense is still 11th in run DVOA. They have a high success rate against 12 pers., but not much else. The Commanders are fifth in rushing efficiency between the tackles, but that is where the Eagles' dominant inside D-lineman sits.

Washington can move the ball on the Eagles. Designing a healthy run game will keep Fangio's ability to manipulate the secondary at bay, forcing the defense into predictable looks. If Washington can't get the ground game going, it will be throwing into one of the better secondaries in the NFL.

When Philadelphia has the ball:

The run game has been the engine for the Eagles the entire season. Barkley has been a star in Kellen Moore's offense, and the only knock so far is that Moore doesn't utilize him more in the passing game. Outside of the 49ers, Christian McCaffery is probably no better hybrid RB.

With AJ Brown back in the lineup, the offense can now push the ball vertically again. In his absence, teams were able to stack the box and shade DeVonta Smith, who is not a true #1 WR. The offensive line has also been an issue in the passing game, with the Eagles sitting 23rd in sacks.

Dan Quinn wants to play his 4-3 base with man coverage behind it. He just hasn't been able to do that so far this season. There are real deficiencies in the secondary. The addition of Lattimore helps, but only if he plays. When healthy, he is one of the best man coverage CBs in the NFL and will most likely travel with Brown.

The Commanders rank 24th in explosive pass rate and will face an Eagles team that ranks 7th. Washington also sits 30th in success rate in man coverage. Even with Lattimore, the secondary will be the critical piece in whether Washington can pull out a victory.

Washington hasn't been much better in its run defense, either. Even though it has two very good ILBs in Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu, Jonathan Allen's injury has limited the rotation inside. Still, the defense is improving, and second-round pick Jer'Zhan Newton is improving each week.

I still think this is Philadelphia's game to lose, but the Commanders are not that far off. Vic Fangio has a defensive unit that can play defense the way he has wanted to since leaving Denver. Zach Baun, a hybrid ILB, has been one of the best players in the league under Fangio's tutelage. The mix of young and old in the secondary is also coming together nicely.

The game on Thursday is almost like a glimpse into the future, with Hurts likely to battle Daniels for the next decade. Washington is a team on the rise, and no one knows their ceiling. Adding Lattimore will help the secondary, but will it be enough for Washington to beat the Eagles? We will find out this Thursday.

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