Thursday Night Preview Broncos vs Chargers

Both the Broncos and the Chargers have put together solid seasons in what was supposed to be rebuilding years for each team. Denver isn't supposed to be here. The Bo Nix-led offense was sitting at 29th in total EPA and 30th in EPA per dropback. Pundits around the league were scoffing at Head Coach Sean Payton's first-round pick of the Oregon quarterback. Then, Nix settled in.

Since the season's first month, the Broncos have risen to respectability on offense. Since Week 5, they have been 17th in total EPA and 15th in EPA per dropback. With the cooling off of the Commanders Jayden Daniels, there is a legitimate argument for Nix as the Offensive Rookie of the Year. But the real story in Denver is the defense.

Only a year ago, the Broncos gave up 70 points to the Dolphins and racked up several more abysmal defensive performances in the first half of the season. Post Week 8 of last year, the Broncos have been one of the best defensive units in the league. Their other high-rising counterparts from '23, the Raiders and Bears, have both faltered.

Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph went back to what he knew, his own defense, and leaned into the personnel he had. Entering their game with the Chargers, the Broncos' defense is #1 in EPA/play and EPA per dropback and only behind the Vikings in EPA per rush. Though the game with the Colts last week is worrisome, this unit has an argument for tops in the league overall.

Running more man coverage has star CB Pat Surtain II ascending back to being an elite defender. Joesph has had to run more zone in recent weeks because of the secondary injuries, especially to Riley Moss, but the defense has still soared. Helping the secondary has been a tremendous rush. Denver leads the NFL in sacks (48) and is second in Pass Rush Performance behind Cleveland. All of this with Russell Wilson's dead cap weighing the roster down.

The Chargers will face a rising team in Denver on Thursday. LA is also reeling after an inexplicable 40-17 loss to the Buccaneers. Offensively, the Chargers are stuck in the middle of the NFL. They have good games, but they can also lay a stinker.

Herbert hasn't thrown many interceptions and has played well for most of the year. There is no legit #1 WR outside. Quentin Johnston has drop issues and hasn't been the explosive receiver LA thought they had in the first round. The star has been second-round Slot Ladd McConkey, who is on pace to gain 1,000 yards. The running game has been solid behind the pads of JK Dobbins, but he's now back on the IR.

Defensively, the Chargers have been one of the better units in football. But in the past four games, LA's defense has fallen to 21st in total EPA. Both units' backward slide has resulted in a 1-3 record in the past month. Compare that to Denver's four-game win streak in the same period.

When the Broncos have the ball:

There is nothing sexy about the Denver offense. It grinds out victories utilizing a balanced offense and Nix's ability to strike down the field when needed. Payton feels like he has another Drew Brees, but this time with legs. I'm not saying Nix is Brees, just that his passing heat map is identical.

Denver must be able to run the ball, where their main advantage lies. The Chargers have one of the best secondaries in the NFL statistically and are seventh in success rate against short passes. That doesn't bode well for a Denver team that wants to flood the lower zones and run the ball to get the defense to suck up. That formula allows Nix to throw the ball down the field to Courtland Sutton.

Look for Denver to pound the rock in between the tackles and look to take timely shots outside. Spreading the Chargers' defense will be crucial, too. The Chargers are fourth in success rate against condensed formations. If Nix can stay accurate and move the ball effectively through the air, they can squeeze some points against this typically stingy defense.

When the Chargers have the ball:

Denver's four-game win streak has been fueled by stellar defense. In the past month, the Broncos have solidified their stance at the top of the defensive food chain. The second-place team is the Buccaneers, who helped Baker Mayfield and Co. to a 40-17 drubbing.

There is no mismatch between the Chargers' offense and Denver's. Statistically, Denver should give LA fits when trying to move the ball. Still, there are opportunities.

One area the Chargers need to take advantage of is the intermediate, middle part of the field. With the secondary injuries, Joseph has had to play more zone in recent weeks. Last week, the Colts were able to run the ball. With JK Dobbins, LA doesn't have a premium RB, but the Colts illustrated how to move the ball on Denver.

Herbert is also a much better and definitely more accurate quarterback than Anthony Richardson. Being able to attack downfield will be key to getting the Broncos' front seven to loosen up on the run game. If Denver can make this a passing game, it will tilt in their favor.

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