Thursday Night Game Preview: Bills vs. Dolphins

The Bills have won the last four meetings against the Dolphins since September 2022. Last year, the Buffalo matchup with a Miami team came off a 70-point drubbing of the Broncos, only to lead 31-14 at the half. In January, the Bills were able to eke out a 21-14 victory and made Tua Tangoviola look pedestrian.

The 2024 iteration of this rivalry will look a lot different. On offense, Josh Allen will be without Stephon Diggs, who moved to Houston this offseason. Gabe Davis is now with Jacksonville. For Allen, Buffalo did draft Keon Coleman in the second round and had a decent outing against the Cardinals in Week 1 (4-51).

Buffalo looked stale early in the game against the Cardinals, then roared back after halftime, only to give up 11 points in the fourth Quarter. Still, Allen had a vintage game, with four total touchdowns, two on the ground. More importantly, there were no interceptions.

The Bills' offense is not their concern heading into the Miami game. Offensively, the core unit has proved it can score with anyone, and a shift to 12 personnel with TEs Knox and Kincade is attempting to alleviate some of the lost production from the receiving corps. Plus, Allen is still a featured part of the run game.

Defensively, the Bills have reshuffled a unit that finished 12th last year in total DVOA, 9th in passing DVOA, and 17th in against the run (FTN). Both starting Safeties, Jordan Pouer (Dolphins) and Micah Hyde (Free Agent), are gone. So is back-up LB Tyrel Dodson, who played so well for oft injured Matt Milano that Seattle picked him up to be their starting Mike.

The key cog of the defense, ILB Matt Milano, was lost for the season before Week 1. Seven plays into the game, Taron Johnson, arguably the best slot defender in the league, went out of the game. Back-up Edge Dawuane Smoot is also likely out. On a short week, that leaves the Bills in a lurch.

The loss of Johnson creates significant issues. Cam Lewis replaced him, and CB Jamarcus Ingram had to play Safety in the Bills' Dime personnel. Buffalo's defense is one of the most singular-based in the NFL and typically runs Nickel (4-2-5) on ~90% of its snaps. Losing their Ni heading into Miami is a big deal.

Keeping guys fresh is critical when playing a team like the Dolphins, who utilize speed to dissect defenses. Buffalo will only have three viable Edges (Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, and Vonn Miller) and likely have to rush rookie Safety Cole Bishop back into the lineup. He was projected to be the starter, but because of an injury, he hasn't practiced much this fall.

Greg Rousseau finished in Field Vision's top-5 in Havoc this past weekend, and the D-line was ranked second in ESPN's Run Stop Win Rate (RSWR). That bodes well for the Bills, who must contend with a Miami team looking to bounce back after a close win versus the Jaguars.

Related Content: Defeating the Dolphins - Bills Edition ('23)

Image: Jim Rassol, Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Like Buffalo, the Dolphins started stale in the first half and were down 17-7. The defense put together a second-half shutout, and the offense scored 13 points to win the game 20-17.

A lot was also happening before the game, with Tyreek Hill being put into handcuffs and released. He still went over 100 yards. In Week 2, at home again, the Dolphins can focus more before kickoff.

Miami and Buffalo will look to come out strong early in the game. Each team can score points; if this becomes a classic shootout, scoring early helps. Outside of the scheme, these two organizations share many similarities.

The Dolphins have also attempted to reshuffle a secondary that struggled at times last year. Jordan Poyer was poached from the Bills, and Kendall Fuller was brought over from the Commanders. Miami has arguably the two best zone CBs in the NFL, which is why they were most likely in the bottom third in man coverage last week.

With no real threat at the #3 WR position, the Dolphins will most likely stick to the plan of Jalen Ramsey and Fuller locking down the outside while using Poyer (who knows this offesne) and Javon Holland to cap the TEs and assisting in run support.

Bradley Chubb is still out, but Jaelan Phillips looked fast and healthy in Week 1. Emmanual Ogbah will hold it down for Chubb until his return. Inside Calais Campbell, age has not weakened the long-tenured veteran. Their ability to stop the run will be crucial against the Bills' rushing attack.

The Dolphins' questions are all centered on the offense. Defensively, the unit played relatively well. Tua, Waddle, and Hill had a decent outing versus the Jaguars, but it took a little while to get going. Waddle and Hill had over 100 yards, and Tua passed for over 300 yards.

Still, the engine that makes this team churn is the run game. Miami has designed a 21-person unit with tremendous speed at every spot. If the run game is not humming, and Tua has to drop back to pass, the weak spot of the offense can rear its head.

The offensive line has been an issue for several seasons, and when forced to execute pass protection on obvious downs, it has spelled disaster for the Dolphins. Last year, the Bills were able to control the line of scrimmage with their four-down linemen. Buffalo's depth may not be there like last year, but the matchup in the trenches will decide this game.

The Jaguars' secondary was exposed and chose to play a majority Cover 1 (not a great idea against Miami), but their run defense limited the Dolphins to 81 yards total. The speedy Devon Achane was restricted to 10 carries and 24 total yards. That will have to change if the Dolphins want to win this matchup.

There will be plenty of opportunities to find open receivers in the passing game, but the Bills also have two very good zone CBs, Christian Benford and Rasual Douglas. The matchups at Safety and in the intermediate to deep middle zones will be the critical battlefield in this matchup.

Prediction: This evenly matched game features two potential AFC East champions. The Dolphins haven't won in four straight games, but I see that changing Thursday night in Miami—there are too many injuries on defense for the Bills.

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