Thursday Night Football Best Bets Week 15

A divisional matchup on Thursday Night can always lead to fireworks, but we're in for a special treat with Kyle Shanahan's 49ers up against Sean McVay's Rams this week. Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives trailing Seattle who sits atop the NFC West. Here are the picks we like in tonight matchup:

49ers vs Rams Over 48.5 total points: Both these offenses looked great in wins last week. On a short week, it may be hard for the defenses to dissect everything and come up with new looks that could slow them down. Both teams are in the top 12 for the year in Adjust EPA/play rankings on offense. We expect the ball to be moved on Thursday night and this game to go over.
George Kittle Over 56.5 receiving yards: Kittle is 2nd among tight ends in Threat Rating this season wit ha 90.2 mark and he's getting an 18.5 percent target share in the 49ers offense averaging over 72 yards per game. With the running back situation in total flux, it should be a game for Kittle to get out and run routes instead of doing as much run blocking. We like Kittle 9.7 percent over expected in this contest.
Brock Purdy Over 244.5 Pass yards: Purdy is 5th in our season Threat Ratings with an 89.2 rating for the campaign. He's averaging 252.7 passing yards per game this season. LA is 26th in Adjusted Dropback EPA/play so far this season and the 49ers are running out of backs to hand it to in the backfield. We expect Purdy to go over tonight.

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