Thursday Night Football Best Bets Week 11

Thursday Night Football is on fire this year with great matchups, especially of the divisional variety. After a classic last week in the AFC North, we get an NFC East showdown this week. The Commanders go to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in a matchup that will put the winner in the driver's seat in the East with the Cowboys and Giants all but dead. Let's take a look at some of the picks we like in the classic battle.

1. Eagles vs. Commander Over 48.5 total points: In our adjusted EPA/play rankings, Washington ranks 2nd in offense and Philadelphia 10th. Contrast that with Washington's 20th ranked defense in the same metric and you can see an opportunity for points in this one. Our model projects this game for over 51 points, a strong signal towards the over with these two high flying offenses.

   

2. Saquon Barkley Over 93 rush yards: The Commanders rank 31st in Adjusted rush EPA/play on defense leaving the door open for a big day for Barkley. He is averaging 110 rush yards per game this season and shows big advantages against the Commanders defense in point of attack, Light Box and personnel. The Eagles have tried to control the game on the ground all year and we see no reason for that to change in week 11. We like Barkley to go over in this one.

   

3. Jayden Daniels Under 226.5 Pass Yards: We think if the Commanders are going to have a chance in this game, they'll have to do it on the ground. The Eagles are only 16th in our adjusted rush EPA/ play defensively. However, they are ranked 2nd defensively in adjusted drop back EPA/play meaning if Jayden Daniels is forced to attack through the air, he'll be throwing into a buzz saw in the Eagles secondary. We see a major disadvantage in the deep part of the field for Daniels, where he's done a lot of his damage this year. We'll take Daniels to go under his passing total in this one.

As always, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.