The Power of Evaluating Players using Play-by-Play Data

Why it’s so important (and powerful) to understand what happens on every single play

Last week at Field Vision we introduced Havoc Ratings to the world with a bold statement: We believe Havoc Ratings will set the standard for how we evaluate defensive player performance. Why? Because our Havoc Ratings are based on outcomes that players have ACTUALLY produced on a play-by-play basis, and the math behind how much those outcomes truly matter to winning. Our Havoc Ratings don’t care about your name, your college, your pedigree, where you were drafted – just about what you do on the field.

We also introduced the nuance of what makes Havoc Ratings so powerful. Because we’re evaluating play-by-play outcomes, we can delineate what happened on specific plays, and how players fared in different situations. For defensive backs, we looked at performance when playing zone vs. man coverage. Not many people expected Charvarius Ward to be atop our cornerback rankings – but the reasoning? He’s elite in zone coverage, playing for a team that plays predominantly zone defense, in a league that is getting more zone heavy by the day.

The same can be said for our Top Safety in Havoc Ratings – Antoine Winfield. The fact of the matter is, he’s the most versatile safety in league when it comes to being elite at EVERYTHING. He ranks 2nd in Zone coverage amongst safeties (5th in overall coverage), 8th in run defense, and 2nd in rushing the passer. Juxtapose this with Kyle Hamilton (3rd overall in our safety Havoc Ratings): Hamilton is elite in pass coverage and rushing the passer, but ranks 64th against the run.

You can read more about our Top Corners HERE and our Top Safeties HERE.

Why Understanding Situation Matters - Particularly with Linebackers

Versatility matters. But perhaps more importantly when evaluating players, being able to understand specific situations, and what players are really good (or not good at) is extremely powerful.

Never has this statement been more true than when evaluating the position of off-ball Linebacker. Linebackers, more than any other defensive position, are asked to operate at all three levels. They run fit (obviously), they rush the passer, are responsible for contain, and, of course, find themselves in both man and zone coverage. What this leads us to are several different Linebacker ‘archetypes, if you will:

• The Run Stopper: Some linebackers (we’re looking at you Bobby Wagner) are extremely good at stopping the run, but somewhat of a liability if they find themselves in coverage

• The Coverage Backer: Other linebackers, like Matt Milano of the Buffalo Bills, are elite in coverage, but less strong against the run or as a pass rusher

• The Pass Rusher: An increasingly more common breed, many linebackers in today’s pass-happy NFL are mostly asked to be a elite at rushing the passer (Exhibit A: Frankie Luvu)

• The All-Around Backer: Finally, the All-Around backer…which should be self-explanatory. Without spoiling too much of Coach A’s late-week thunder, think Fred Warner here

So this week with Havoc Ratings we attempt to understand Linebackers across the league a little bit better. Our plan is to look at Havoc Ratings split-out based on our Linebacker 'archetypes.' First we’ll look at the elite ‘Run-stoppers’ in the league, before understanding who the best Coverage backers are, and finishing of the week with our point-of-view of the best linebackers overall.

As we continue to roll-out our Havoc Ratings to the world, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback as always. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.

Here’s the good news: It's only 44 days til football season…