The Five Best Games of the NFL's Week 12

Here's what to watch for when each side has the ball.

Vikings vs. Bears

When Minnesota has the ball:

Though the offense sits 17th in DVOA, it is #2 in explosive rate heading into this week. The Bears are prone to give up big plays, and Minnesota will try to get their two primary receivers, Jefferson and Addison, involved early. If they can hit on a few passes, that will go a long way toward Darnold's overall confidence. Chicago has done a relatively good job against Wide Zone attacks like the ones carried by the Vikings. The defense can be soft in the middle, so look for Kevin O'Connell to attack inside the Tackles with Aaron Jones. As good as the secondary has played in Chicago, the run game is that bad, sitting at 31st in rush DVOA.

When Chicago has the ball:

The game solely relies on Caleb Williams' ability to handle the pressure from the Vikings' defense. Minnesota has the #1 overall Pass Blitz Rate and has accumulated 32 sacks for the year, enough for fifth best. There are mismatches across the board for Chicago. Minnesota also possesses one of the best run defenses in the NFL. DC Brian Flores forces teams into predictable settings and then uses coverage disguises on 3rd Down to confuse quarterbacks. There is a lot on the plate for Williams to handle, which will indicate his overall growth. The Bears need to make this an ugly game and hope their defense can come up with a few turnovers.

49ers vs. Packers

When San Fransisco has the ball:

All eyes will be on the passing game and Brock Purdy's ability to move the chains. When fully healthy, the Packers' secondary can cause some issues. Their young Safety corp is a solid foundation for the organization to build on, but that doesn't answer the issues at CB. Though Jaire Alexander is playing better this year, his counterparts in the CB room have not. San Fransisco is fifth in success rate against zone coverage and has been relatively good versus Cover 1 this year. One of the main issues in the past has been the ability of defenses to play man coverage. The Packers are much better overall when they run split-field coverages, something the 49ers can struggle against.

When Green Bay has the ball:

One of the main themes for this game will be the 49ers defensive struggles versus spread formations and 11 personnel. Those alone should have the Packers offensive unit excited to play this game. Both of those concepts learn right into the strengths of the Packers. Jordan Love must take advantage of open space downfield, especially when spreading the formation. Green Bay has been a 'gun-run' offense under LaFleur, and the 49ers' Nickel defense should allow them to attack it from their base package. One area that the Packers need to take advantage of is running into loaded boxes (8+ defenders). The 49ers are 29th in loaded box success rate, while the Packers sit seventh in that metric. LaFleur needs to lean into the run game and control the line of scrimmage to open up the pass downfield.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks

When Arizona has the ball:

The Cardinals hold first place in the West, but it isn't by much. Underneath them is a log jam of three teams at 5-5. Seattle is coming off a huge win against the 49ers. Arizona has an advantage on offense. The Seahawks have struggled at times to create pressure, mainly when blitzing. Arizona excels against teams that want to attack them aggressively. 12 personnel is another area that Seattle has struggled against this year, and the Cardinals love to put two TEs on the field and mash. Kyler Murray must play a clean game, and Marvin Harrison Jr. will face long and physical CBs.

When Seattle has the ball:

This is a classic Geno game. He will have to pass the ball to win. Arizona plays a unique three-safety structure that primarily uses zone coverage. Geno & Co. feasts on zone coverage, and if the O-line can handle the pressure from Arizona, the Seattle WRs should be able to get open. The Cardinals have the 23rd-best Pass Rush Production (PRP) in the NFL.

Sunday Night Football

Eagles vs. Rams

When Philadelphia has the ball:

A lot has been made by pundits across the league about the rise of the young Rams' defense. The Eagles will pose a unique threat. At every level of their offense, Philly has an elite weapon. AJ Brown is one of the best WRs in the league, and his counterpart, Devonta Smith, can explode at any moment. In the backfield is Saquan Barkley, vying for the top spot at the RB position. The Rams' defense is growing in confidence, and the Eagles will need to take their shots when they see man coverage. The intermediate areas of the field will be there when the Rams play zone, so Hurts needs not to press; just get the ball to the open WR. The Rams' defensive line is talented at pass rush but can be overwhelmed in the run game. If Philly can stay in control, they can win this game.

When LA has the ball:

The Eagles also have an ascending young defense; the only difference is that they are trying to capture elite status. Vic Fangio has had Sean McVay's number and understands better than anyone how to attack it. Fangio likes to compress the field and make the offense work. McVay and Stafford will need to design and execute a mid-level passing game where the Eagles are vulnerable (by design). Nacua and Cupp are two of the best at catching intermediate routes and turning them into explosives. In the run game, the Rams have to stay committed. Overall, they have kept in the black regarding success rate. As long as it doesn't turn into a game where Stafford has to throw 40+ times, the Rams can keep this within striking distance.

Monday Night Football

Ravens vs. Chargers

When Baltimore has the ball:

The Chargers' secondary defense has played relatively well throughout the season. Currently, the unit is 10th in DVOA and sixth against the pass. The run defense has been on a downward slide in recent weeks, but DC Jesse Minter is one of the best coordinators at finding ways to maximize his front. Baltimore should run the ball and continue to do so to help establish control of the game. Light box (<7 defenders) run defense was doing well for LA at the beginning of the year, but has plummeted recently. The Ravens will likely play more 11 personnel or 12 'flex' using Likely as a quasi-WR. Intermediate passing has been an issue for LA because of the zone coverage they are playing. Spread'em out and run the ball should be the mantra heading into Monday.

When LAC has the ball:

The Ravens have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and the Chargers want to run the ball and utilize play-action to take shots down the field. Without a premium outside WR, there have been weeks where the Chargers passing game has looked stagnant. Interestingly, LA is eighth in DVOA, which measures efficiency. The Chargers are efficient in the passing game and need to hit on their shots when called. Baltimore's secondary has struggled all year, and the lack of a CB opposite rookie Andrew Wiggins has forced Hamilton to play from depth more than at the Nickel spot. Marlon Humphrey is the #1 rated CB in Havoc Ratings, so it hasn't been an issue versus lighter personnel. The Chargers want to force the Ravens into playing Base or Big Nickel (three Safeties) to open up the passing game. That will rely on a run game that can gain traction, something every team has struggled to find versus the Ravens.

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