The NFL's Super Wildcard Preview

Saturday Slate

Chargers vs. Houston

Most of the noise coming out of Houston has been centered around the lackluster performance of the offense for much of the season. That has overshadowed the dominance of the Texans' defense, which finished the season third in DVOA and fourth in EPA/play. The team they will face is somewhat similar.

One of the Chargers' major concerns all year has been the talent surrounding their star quarterback, Justin Herbert. The young quarterback has played well all year, and the passing game finished eighth in DVOA. The run game is a concern, and outside of Ladd McConkey, there isn't a star receiver. Quentin Johnston can be a deep threat but has sometimes struggled to catch the ball.

Neither team has an advantage in the passing game. Both secondaries have played well all year, making it difficult for them to gain traction through the air. Houston's offense ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in DVOA, and the Chargers' Jim Harbaugh (along with OC Greg Roman) is not opposed to sitting on the ball. The game has a classic low-scoring brawl feel.

Steelers vs. Ravens

Baltimore is coming into the postseason on a hot streak. The defense is beginning to play at an elite level. There probably has been no other team, save the Eagles, that has shown tremendous growth on the defensive side of the ball. The hope is that a top-ten defense paired with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry can power Baltimore over the hump. To do so, they must beat the Steelers, who have a win versus the Ravens.

If there is a chink in the armor for the Ravens, it is outside CB. George Pickens has been stellar outside his six targets, with zero completion outing against the Bengals to finish the year. He cannot do that against the Ravens. Russel Wilson is a seasoned vet and knows what it takes to win in January. Still, the defense must step it up as it usually does against Lamar and Co. The secondary is a concern in Pittsburgh, but if they can't stop the run or contain Jackson's legs, it won't matter.

Sunday Slate

Broncos vs. Bills

The Buffalo game has a weird vibe. Most pundits and NFL fans will tell you the Bills will beat the Broncos. But there is some hesitancy just to give the game to Allen and Co. Sure, the Bills average 30 points a game at home to the Broncos' 21 away, but Denver's defense matches up well with the Bills'.

Denver has consistently been the most elite defense in the NFL. They run a five-man surface and like to bring pressure and play a lot of man coverage. The Bills are used to this, as they see some of the highest rates of man coverage in the NFL. When looking at efficiency ratings, the Bills have few advantages besides Josh Allen. One way they can attack the Broncos is by running Allen and countering the Broncos' aggressiveness with Allen's legs.

All eyes will be on the Bills defense, which has played decent all year. If they can force Bo Nix to be pass-first and throw the ball 30-40 times, they should win this game. Denver has talent at receiver that can hurt the Bills, but Buffalo has two outside CBs that would start for most teams. The Safeties and the linebackers are going to need to show up. If they can hold the intermediate part of the field in check and help stop the run, it should be 'on to the next' in Buffalo.

Packers vs. Eagles

This is a rematch of the Brazil game from Week 1. We were introduced to Zach Baun, who Vic Fangio unleashed in that game. The Eagles defense took a few weeks to take flight, but once Ni Cooper DeJean settled in, the defense took off. Offensively, the Eagles have stars everywhere but need quarterback Jalen Hurts to stay healthy. Saquon Barkley has had an MVP-esque season, and Philly will look to his legs to keep Hurts from needing to carry the load.

Green Bay has the seventh-best defense, according to DVOA, and has done a tremendous job stopping the run in a division that wants to run the ball. They will need to keep Saquon in check and force Hurts to throw the ball or run it himself if they are to win this game. Look for the Packers to attack the Eagles on the ground, where they hold a slight advantage. One area of concern is the loss of Christian Watson, who was flourishing as a serious threat to quarterback Jordan Love. Love, like Hurts, is battling injuries as well. May the best quarterback win in this very even matchup.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers

Can Todd Bowles get rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels flustered in his first playoff game? That will be the primary question. Tampa has been frenetic all season. Some weeks, they look like world-beaters and, in others, pretenders. What team will show up on Sunday night? Bowles runs an aggressive defense that is anchored by a solid front line. The secondary has been erratic, and the play at linebacker opposite Lavonte David has been inconsistent. Safety Jordan Whitehead was lost for the season because of a car wreck, and Antoine Winfield Jr. may not be at full strength; the same goes for CB Jamel Dean. If the pressure doesn't get to Daniels, who will guard Terry McLaurin?

The Commander's defense has improved as the season has progressed, and they will face a Buccaneers offense with one of the best in the NFL. Like their defense, the Buccaneers' offense can be erratic at times, and Baker Mayfield turns into a gunslinger and makes mistakes. If Baker can play clean, Tampa has a clear path to victory. The Buccaneers are a seasoned group that has been to the playoffs. The Commanders are not. There is a reason this game is the Sunday nightcap: it can go a million different ways.

Monday Night

Vikings vs. Rams

The Vikings' defense has started hot for two straight seasons and trailed off at the end. Statistically, the unit is still one of the best and has proven it has a recipe for success against Shanahan/McVay's style of offenses. Still, it hasn't been able to figure out the Lions. The Rams, who play similarly to Ben Johnson's scheme, already have a 30-20 win over Minnesota. Flores will hopefully have better answers in round two of this game than he had against Detroit. The evolution in the scheme has been to play more man coverage. Still, with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp fully healthy, the Vikings will need to make quarterback Matthew Stafford uncomfortable and throwing off target.

One of the misnomers this year has been Sam Darnold's effectiveness against the blitz. He's been elite this year outside the last several weeks. So, that begs the question, 'Is this a trend heading into the playoffs?' LA holds a top-ten pressure rate, while the Vikings have one of the most porous offensive lines in the NFL. The Rams' D-line is young and active and will look to take advantage. Like Minnesota's game plan, the Rams must disrupt the timing of the Vikings offense to mitigate issues in their secondary. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison have been feasting on opponents all year.

Most have this game as a 50/50 pick'em, and the Rams are +2.5 with the game now moved to Arizona. LA appears to be the ascending team, with Minnesota maybe running out of gas after being unable to beat Detroit. Here's to an excellent game against two evenly matched-opponents.

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