The NFL's Divisional Round Previews

Saturday Slate

Texans vs. Chiefs

Houston's defense played as well as possible against the Chargers, but this week, in Arrowhead, will be a different story. Kansas City has had almost a month of rest and will be healthy heading into this pivotal matchup. The Chiefs saw the Texans a month ago and beat Houston 27-19. RB Joe Mixon only had 54 yards, and Stroud threw for two interceptions. WR Tank Dell, who exploded for 98 yards and one TD, won't be on the field Saturday.

The return of CB Jaylen Watson will bolster the Chiefs' defense, but with only Nico Collins to worry about, Steve Spagnuolo will have a plan to ensure he is doubled on crucial downs. CB Trent McDuffie does travel and should match up with Collins quite a bit. If the Texans become one-dimensional again, it would spell disaster for Houston, who would have to contend with Spags' numerous zone pressures.

The Texans' path to victory must be through its front line. Though the secondary was the star of the show, forcing four picks, the D-line could consistently pressure Justin Herbert. In their first matchup, Mahomes was able to scramble for 33 yards on the ground, including one TD. Houston must keep the Chiefs out of the Red Zone and in control of the game by being a disruptive force at the line of scrimmage. We still don't know who the Chiefs LT will be on Saturday, but we know the Texans will present a formidable challenge. Houston pressured the Chargers, sending a blitz on 42% of their snaps, well above their season average of 22.4%. They most likely won't do that against Mahomes.

Commanders vs. Lions

Washington defensively has shown positive growth in the back half of the year. Both ILBs Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu garnered second-team All-Pro honors. His hamstring injury has muted the addition of Marshawn Lattimore. He also didn't look great when facing his arch-nemesis, Mike Evans. The Buccaneers offense, outside Evans, was held in check by the Commanders defense. One of the main concerns for Washington was their run defense, which finished 26th in FTN's DVOA but held Tampa (who was eighth in rush DVOA) to just over 100 yards. Detroit's offense will be a completely different beast. Much like the Texans, the Commanders' Wildcard Weekend opponent will be a shell of the #1 seed in the division.

Detroit has also had issues on defense, but in Week 16, DC Aaron Glenn decided to move Safety Brian Branch back to Nickel full-time. The move placed Amik Robertson back outside, where he has done nothing but excel. He's been the top CB in Field Vision Havoc Ratings since the move. LB Alex Anzalone is also back and healthy. The result against Minnesota, which Detroit played as a defacto playoff game, illustrated the growth on defense by just moving a couple of pieces. The Lions have mostly played from their Base personnel, where they had the highest usage in the NFL (44.3%).

The key in this game will be the Commanders' ability to score points against Detroit's retooled Nickel defense. If Jaden Daniels can make some plays with his legs and get the ball to his receivers for chunk plays, they might be able to keep up with Detroit. There is a lot of pressure on the rookie quarterback, but he hasn't cracked so far. Some think the game in Detroit might be a classic shootout, but that depends on how you feel the Lions will play defensively.

Sunday Slate

Rams vs. Eagles

LA sacked the Vikings in Phoenix last Monday and will now travel to Philadelphia to take on one of the hottest teams in the NFL. No defense has grown more over the season than the Eagles under the direction of Vic Fangio. The defense took off once Ni Cooper DeJean was inserted into the lineup. Fangio has tools at every level. Up front, the two interior D-linemen are some of the best in the NFL. Zack Baun is an All-Pro and is a Swiss Army knife in Fangio's system. He plays everywhere, from off the ball to Edge, and is a menace in coverage. The offense in Philly needs Hurts to play a clean game and get the ball to its stars. Saquon Barkley has been a cheat code behind one of the best O-lines in the league.

For the Rams, Stafford, Puka, and Cupp are all healthy, and fireworks are created anytime those three are together. The run game has quietly been excellent behind the legs of Kyren Williams. One of the knocks on Fangio's defense has been its inability to stop the run in critical games. That isn't the case this year. The Eagles finished second in run DVOA and #1 in EPA/rush. The zone-centric style of play for the Eagles was built to defend offenses like Sean McVay's, which is why McVay has opted to run that playbook in his program.

In their first meeting, the Rams couldn't stop the run. Now, they will be tasked with doing so. The game plan against Minnesota was to be aggressive up front and attack the long-developing passing plays the Vikings like to feature. Philly's offense might be the exact opposite. The Eagles want to get the ball into their speedy receivers' hands fast, helping Hurts do this with a stout run game. The Eagles rushed for over 300 yards in their first meeting, with AJ Brown getting over 100 through the air. The Eagles will attempt to isolate their top WR outside, mitigating some of the man coverage tools the Rams were able to use against Minnesota. Still, LA was able to move the ball, and if they can gain traction on the ground and play ball control, it could slow the game down enough for them to keep it close. If the D-line shows up like it did Monday and pressures Hurts into making mistakes, all bets are off!

Ravens vs. Bills

Both juggernauts faced off in Week 4, with Baltimore walking away from a 35-10 victory. Since then, Keon Coleman has grown into a decent outside threat, while Amari Cooper has had flashes of his old self. The star of the receiving corp is Khalil Shakir, who has over 800 yards receiving. Coleman was still a rookie when the Ravens played Buffalo early in the season, and Cooper hadn't stepped foot in the facility. Allen has more tools to work with this time, but if the run game can't get going (Cook only had 39 yards against Baltimore), it could be tough sledding against one of the better defenses in the NFL.

The Ravens' secondary has been a looming question mark all season but has improved throughout the year. At the end of the season, the Ravens were seventh in EPA/pass and eighth in passing DVOA. So, the addition and growth of the Bills' receiving corps may not have much effect on the game. Allen's ability to run and make plays when the pocket breaks down will be critical to success, as the Bills will likely have to play point-for-point with Baltimore's vaunted offense.

There are concerns, though, in Baltimore. The loss of Zay Flowers, who will likely not play, cannot be overstated. Though he was kept in check in their first meeting, the Ravens must successfully pass the ball to beat the Bills. In their early season matchup, Derrick Henry had 199 yards rushing combined with Lamar's 54. Justice Hill was the leading receiver with 78 yards. The run game will again be a feature against the Bill's Nickel defense, which can struggle against good running teams. Buffalo is lightest in the middle, where Henry likes to run, and the Ravens have built their offensive line.

For Buffalo to win, they will need to stop the run, whether it is the legs of Henry or Lamar. That is easier said than done, but with no threat of Flowers, another receiver will most likely need to step up. In the last go-round, it was an RB. Both of these teams desperately want to make it to the next round to attempt to rid themselves of the Mahomes/Reid curse; to do that, each quarterback will most likely have to carry their team to victory. May the best quarterback win (unless Henry rushes for 200 yards again).

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