The NFL Schedule and how Net Rest Advantage Matters

As the offseason drones on in the NFL, players are no doubt enjoying their time away from the game and the rest their bodies are receiving. Another byproduct of the off season is the opportunity to reflect on strategy and performance and start the next season better than ever.

Some players focus on the physical side of the game- resting their bodies, putting on or taking off weight, and trying to increase strength or quickness. Others are more apt to spend time buried in film trying to find the edges they missed the season before, but they all have one thing in common, once the season starts the action will come fast and furious and it will be hard to catch their breath.

That is why even a little bit of rest advantage on a week-to-week basis can make all the difference in the outcome of a game. Earlier this offseason, we took a look at the teams with the most and least net rest advantage throughout the NFL season.

Why does this matter?

Let’s start with a recap of how the NFL opponents are determined:

- Division Opponents all play each other twice

- Everyone in a given division plays everyone in another division from their own Conference. (Example: the AFC West plays everyone in the AFC North this season.)

- Everyone in a given division plays everyone in another division from the opposing conference. (Example: AFC West plays everyone in the NFC South this season)

- Every team plays the teams from the 2 other divisions in their conference that finished in the same place as them and 1 other team from the other conference that finished in the same place as them. (Example: The 2nd place team in the AFC West plays the second plays team in the AFC South, AFC East and the NFC West this season.)

With that understanding, it is easy to see that the NFL has no ability to increase or decrease schedule difficulty based on the opponents of the team. That’s what makes Net Rest Advantage so important. It is one of the very few, if not only, schedule variances that occur when the dates of the games are released.

In 2023, teams with a rest advantage were 55-51. A 52 percent win percentage does matter in the razor thin margins of the NFL. The reality is over the grueling course of a 17 game NFL season, even 1 day of extra time to prepare can make all the difference in the outcome of the game.

The Baltimore Ravens lead the league in Net Rest advantage this season with a +18, meaning over the course of the season, they’ll have 18 additional days of preparation as compared to their weekly opponents. Over the last 5 seasons, the Ravens are 11-5 with a rest advantage over their opponent.

On the other end of the spectrum, the San Francisco 49ers will have a grueling slug with a -21 Net Rest advantage over the course of the season. The 49ers have been able to overcome the rest disadvantage in the past, winning 78 percent of their games in that situation over the last 5 year, but teams that are closer to league average will have a tougher time making up for that discrepancy.

The Chargers, for example, have won just 37.5 percent of their games over the last 5 seasons with a rest disadvantage and at -10 this season that could play a big factor in Jim Harbaugh’s first season in Los Angeles.

The variance can be small, but over the grueling slug of a 17 game NFL season every edge matters and there’s no doubt that the Ravens, Eagles, Patriots and Vikings are in a better spot that the 49ers, Broncos, Colts and Seahawks with the scheduling of NFL games this year- in particular the rest allotted each team heading into those games.