Threat and Havoc Ratings that Might Surprise You
Threat and Havoc measure more in depth than generic stats possibly could by linking production and proven value. Some players with gaudier numbers don't serve as effective a purpose as a seemingly innocuous cog in the machine. The nature of Havoc and Threat is the ability to ignore the narratives of how good a player is or isn't and look strictly at production. Here, we take a look at either end of the spectrum at players who produced better or worse than you may have thought.
Quarterback HIGHER
Justin Herbert (90.1, 3rd QB)
(KTLA)
The wonder boy in Southern California finally got the coach he deserved in Jim Harbaugh who is able to squeeze the best season from whomever takes snaps for his teams. We all know Justin is capable of ridiculous highlights and matching Patrick Mahomes in divisional matchups. The rushing attack’s return to the forefront has more beneficiaries than Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry; JK Dobbins returning to his form from 2015 in the early parts of the season helped Herbie and the Chargers build an actual contender. As the war chest is expected to grow alongside Ladd McConkey and the fleeting flashes of Quentin Johnston, the potentialities may turn into realities in Hollywood.
Running back LOWER
Jonathan Taylor (78.4, 15th RB)
For years, the Indianapolis Colts have dodged the quarterback train in the oddest ways possible. Andrew Luck’s retirement seemed to drill a black hole for Indy’s hopes of a consistent future. The only constants have been Chris Ballard, Quentin Nelson, and the greatest Wisconsin Badger back in the long line of legends. With the wild discrepancies in Anthony Richardson’s yardage and completions, Taylor’s 1,431 yards on the ground failed to crack the top 10 backs. This may be due to the dramatic resurgence of handing the ball off in 2024, but the Colts are leaving something to be desired offensively.
Wide receiver HIGHER
Mike Evans (85.6, 2nd WR)
The elongated golden blazer signifying the historically relevant career of Mike Evans has surely been measured already. The Super Bowl ring fits nicely just like he did next to Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield, and even Jameis Winston. The concrete has mostly dried for the former Aggie, but I’m not sure if he has ever been thought of as a Top 3 wideout in the NFL. I have been known to have a deep affection for taller receivers who high point the football and embarrass other grown athletes (similar to Jenny MacArthur in The League), but Mike has been securely in the Top 5 to 8 pass catchers. Liam Coen and Dave Canales have both been hired off as head coaches after stints as Tampa’s OC with Evans as the primary weapon even into his 30s.
Tight end LOWER
Sam LaPorta (78.0, 6th TE)
(St. Louis Post-Dispatch)
Alright, this is more about expectations being burned in a sophomore slump, but the collective football world expected LaPorta to launch into the stratosphere. The five tight ends ahead of him (Kittle, McBride, Bowers, Kelce & Andrews) all make logical sense but the Lions’ carousel of exotic plays and commitment to the run game lost the second-year man in the highly productive shuffle. He only eclipsed the 100-yard mark once this year and has lost Ben Johnson as his coordinator. The young career of Mr. LaPorta certainly has room to grow with a crowded field at the position.
Cornerback HIGHER
Christian Benford (95.0, 1st CB)
The Bills defense was a point of contention down the stretch. In a matter of a few weeks, Buffalo beat Detroit and Kansas City and suffered at the hands of an energized Sean McVay with oodles of points weighing the board down. The September and October performances from Benford and his team buoy some of their high ratings, but there is a dense profile of solid defenders. Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich entered their names into some interesting defensive coaching conversations through that stretch, Babich the newest comer.
Safety LOWER
CJ Gardener Johnson (80.0, 27th S)
The reigning Super Bowl champions' rose like phoenixes with Vic Fangio overturning the unit. The top passing defense was not aided by one of the elite safeties. This shouldn't be damning for CJGJ, but a testament to the depth of good safeties. The Lions employ two of the Top 3 while 20 safeties rate above 82.0. The rushing attack lends itself to the play action pass becoming more and more effective, so when a safety is good, their value spikes in comparison to the traditional, shut-down corners and some rush defense specialists.
Linebacker HIGHER
Eric Kendricks (95.8, 2nd LB)
The Cowboys defense seemed to be overtly terrible when the season started. Their rush defense poured halfbacks like water and allowed leaks before Micah Parsons injury worsened an already bad spot. Dak Prescott's fall left room for veteran leadership that Eric Kendricks filled in. During the first month of the year, Mike Zimmer called the same defense that got him fired in Minnesota a number of years ago, but through the middle part, who better to run the Zimmer defense than someone raised in it? The 32-year-old won't play for his old coach ever again, but this year definitely added value.
Defensive end LOWER
Josh Sweat (75.9, 30th ED)
Sweat got active during LIX and his performance was an impressive one on the largest stage. The Defensive End position is skewed by Aidan Hutchinson's brief, potent performance, but Sweat falls into the meaty middle of the market. Those role players seem to be a Fangio specialty while the Birds executed the game plan from LVII in victory. Soon, his finger will sparkle with more than just the perspiration he's known for. The secret to a saturated pass rush was burst wide open and Josh Sweat was the prime defensive beneficiary.
(247 Sports)
Defensive tackle HIGHER
Zach Allen (88.8, 5th DT)
The Broncos have bits of talent sprinkled all over their team with Pat Surtain headlining the defense and Bo Nix at the glamor position. Zach Allen certainly falls into the second tier of recognizable names on the roster, but his elite company amongst the best interior defensive lineman ought to make him a household name as he enters his prime. His pressure rate bolstered as the season pressed on, assisting Denver's return to the playoffs for the first time in a decade. As Sean Payton loads his team to his liking, Allen should be joined by more faster horses.
