Super Bowl Certainties
Now that there are just eight teams remaining, I believe there are clear and distinct reasons as to why each team can win the Super Bow.l. They've made it this far, so what specifically are they some of the best in the world at?
Also, knowing the matchups and having a knowledge of history, distant and recent, we can point out exactly what will send each team to Cancun sooner than everyone else.
Detroit Lions (+290)
(A to Z Sports)
Why they absolutely will: Culture
Much has been said about Dan Campbell’s leadership abilities even through Detroit’s injury struggles. They held onto the #1 seed and are expected to take advantage of the time off with a phenomenal home playoff performance, something the city has recently embraced. Jahmyr Gibbs might be the league’s most explosive player and Jared Goff deserves to be mentioned in every Top 10 conversation under the sun. With Ben Johnson and Aaron Glen likely on their ways out, a Super Bowl win for the vibes is more than Motown could ask for.
Why they absolutely will not: Dan Campbell’s late game decisions
For as much as Dan has given the Lions through his head coaching tenure, he leaves something to be desired in the clutch coaching category. Aggressiveness on fourth down grows fond in the hearts of football’s Internet nerds until Dan’s scarlet nose glares at Goff on his trot back to the sideline. Detroit’s defense has no room for error, leaving their head coach stuck in the gap of playoff choices.
Kansas City Chiefs (+350)
Why they absolutely will: Do we need to have this conversation?
The Chiefs have won back-to-back championships while their core contributors have had nearly a month off for rest with the #1 seed secured. The Chiefs were worse off heading into last year’s edition of the postseason and still came out on top while withstanding various obstacles. Employing Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and Andy Reid all at the same time has made things that much easier while the young defense has reclaimed some of the territory they lost through parts of the season.
Why they absolutely will not: it’s just time
For good reason, we have never seen any team win three straight titles: it’s really damn hard. Since 2018, the Chiefs’ season has ended in the championship round or later every season, tacking on extra games with each bite of success. With the depth of quarterback talent in the conference, the Chiefs falling to the likes of CJ Stroud, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson would shock very few.
Philadelphia Eagles (+420)
Why they absolutely will: they have the best players
If Brett Veach didn’t hop-scotch cap troubles as much as he did, the undisputed best general manager in the National Football League would be one Howie Roseman. From the offensive weapons to the Philadelphia Bulldog defense, the Eagles probably have the best pound-for-pound roster in the league which can win them the conference if they were to host throughout with a Detroit downfall. Saquon Barkley’s addition to the corral has only made them even more fearsome especially when they can play ball control
Why they absolutely will not: Nick Sirianni
In my opinion, there is a case to be made that Nick Sirianni is the worst coach left in these playoffs. With Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio being another wise call by Roseman and owner Jeffrey Lurie, Sirianni’s responsibilities have been reduced to in-game shot calling, which has become a lingering issue in tighter contests. Jalen Hurts’ fallibility only highlights how much they need a steady hand at the wheel and they have the shakiest one left.
Baltimore Ravens (+470)
Why they absolutely will: Nobody can do what they can do
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry reading defensive ends felt like a Madden simulation prior to this season. Ravens fans’ dreams came true when the combination proved to be as dangerous as advertised. Lamar won’t break precedence with a third MVP and no Super Bowl appearance, but the numbers would suggest that he’s had one of history’s greatest passing seasons. Though that doesn’t pass the eye test, the Ravens passing game is improved with Zay Flowers taking a leap.
Why they absolutely will not: old habits die hard
Lamar’s playoff woes have been broadcast very often, but I believe there is room for improvement. He’s still very young and has matched Peyton Manning’s trajectory in the same category: multiple bouts with disappointment with obvious potential for greater. Manning has the benefit of a full, Hall of Fame career while Lamar will be judged harshly on what he does this coming weekend and, potentially, beyond.
Buffalo Bills (+550)
(The New York Times)
Why they absolutely will: Josh Allen’s MVP case
Josh Allen will win the MVP partially because of what the Baltimore QB has yet to do, but his heroics bring credibility to those saying that the trophy belongs in Buffalo. The entire NFL won just two games against the Chiefs and Lions; Josh matched that. Though Stefon Diggs’ departure was more about the drama of the situation and its end, Allen was able to assimilate rookie Keon Coleman and newcomer Amari Cooper to the elevated duties of Khalil Shakir and James Cook. When the defense came apart, the Allen Express has kept them moving.
Why they absolutely will not: facing a QB of Josh’s stature
In the singular occurrence in the last few seasons where the Bills haven’t had to face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs, they were blown out by the Bengals at home. They will face the Ravens at home this coming week after their devastating loss to them 35-10 earlier this year. If the defense hasn’t rectified its issues and the McDermott-Babich trust don’t work it out soon, they will return to western New York.
Los Angeles Rams (+1600)
(Sporting News)
Why they absolutely will: Super Bowl prestige combined with youthful hunger
Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp (Kupp especially) feel like a different duo from when they won the Super Bowl just a few seasons ago. The influx of Puka Nacua and their novelty defense (a la the Chiefs when it comes to nailing defensive contributors in the draft) have added a new flavor to what the Rams already do well: McVay is generally smarter than your coach and he will exhaust all options by the end of the game. Sean is the best coach left in the NFC and that may drag them to a championship game.
Why they absolutely will not: they play the Lions next week
Detroit has been taking their much-needed rest over the last week to ready themselves for a revolutionary run for the franchise. The first name that needs to be crossed off is the Rams’. The Lions have been able to beat teams even when the opponents try their hardest. If McVay can muddy the game versus his former QB, the Rams may be able to withstand the offensive onslaught like they have against this team before.
Washington Commanders (+2600)
Why they absolutely will: Jayden will continue making history
Doink wins count just as much as blowouts, so the Commanders on their carpet ride is pretty entertaining to those with zero skin in the fight. So far in his young career, Jayden Daniels has five game-winning drives. Yes, five. The Commanders had the second overall pick and because of who they used that pick on, they won 12 football games in 2024. Jayden has proven that he is a franchise quarterback, so what if he continues these phenomenal feats?
Why they absolutely will not: Jayden won’t continue making history
No rookie has ever won the Super Bowl because the football gods just will not let it happen. Hopefully at some point, the Commanders will be fully prepared for such a time as this, but barring unforseen circumstances, their trip to Detroit will be their last of the year.
Houston Texans (+4400)
Why they absolutely will: CJ Stroud actually is that elite QB
CJ Stroud has had a sophomore slump, but in the AFC South, who cares? Get in the playoffs, kid! From what CJ showed against the Browns last year and the Chargers this year, his limited playoff resume can stand up to NFL veterans like Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert (and stand taller occasionally). The Texans’ defense has been a huge reason why they stayed afloat all year long, but their quarterback is going to have to replicate what he’s already done (and more) if the team wants to break through this year.
Why they absolutely will not: they play the rested, pissed off Chiefs
The Texans and Chiefs played shortly before Christmas and the Chiefs dominated while looking close to their best all season. If we expect a Chiefs team, who is undefeated in the divisional round with Mahomes, to fall on their faces, then Houston will have a real shot at the title, but that’s a simple impossibility.
