Best bets for Week 1's Sunday slate
Through 2 games of the NFL season, it is delivering, as always. We've had two one possession thrillers to get 2024 kicked off. We knew the games would deliver. They always do. But, What about Field Vision? Well, so far so good. We picked 3 curated Best Bets in each of the first two nights and THEY ALL HIT! We know nobody gets them all right, but 6 for 6 is nice way to get things kicked off. Something we can't say about the new kickoff rule so far.
Our curated Best Bets are a mix of the Field Vision Matchup Index along with keen football analysis to pick what we like best. We would expect those picks to hit at the highest rate, but in addition, the Matchup Index provides analysis on every matchup in every game. Through the first 2 games of the season, we are hit rate is over 60 percent across the entire Matchup Index. That's across over 40 Matchups. In light of our early success, we're giving some of our Curated picks for Sunday free here. If you haven't yet, don't forget to try your two-week free trial in the app and get in on the action.
Josh Reynolds Over 28.5 receiving yards: Reynolds has a strong advantage in the intermediate area of the field against the Seahawks defense and he was 12th in EPA generated in the middle intermediate area of the field last season as a result of being 98th percentile in EPA generated on In Routes. We think the Broncos will use Reynolds as their #2 which will give him plenty of opportunity to catch enough passes to go over 28.5.
Matthew Stafford Over 274.5 passing yards: We have Stafford to have monster game through the air against the Lions largely because of a huge intermediate and deep advantage against the Lions secondary. We also feel the Stafford weapons are much better than their counterparts in the Lions secondary. Every Rams pass catcher of significance has a highly positive matchup index. Our Game projections show the Lions winning by more than the spread meaning the Rams may be playing from behind as well. Add it all up and it should be a big day of passing yards for Matthew Stafford in the dome in Detroit.
Buccaneers Cover -3.5 vs. Commanders: Our model has the Buccaneers as nearly 8 point winners at home against the Commanders. There's admittedly some unpredictability here with the Commanders completely changing over their coaching staff and bring in rookie QB Jayden Daniels. We like this matchup mostly because of the Bucs offense, where we show advantages for the Bucs in Field Area, Scheme and Personnel. We project them 11% over their offensive total. Couple that with the chance Jayden Daniels struggles in his NFL debut, and we think the Bucs will cover here.
Here's to the first full slate of the NFL season. We hope you're as excited as we are. Don't forget to subscribe for your 2-week Free Trial to see the rest of our Picks for Sunday Week 1. Happy Football season!
As always, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.
