NFL Week 9 Weekend Slate Preview

Broncos vs. Ravens

Image: AP/David Richard

Denver could do better on offense, but there are a few things that the Broncos can do to keep them in the game against the Ravens. First, Denver has given up the second-lowest amount of sacks in the season so far. Half of that has to do with rookie quarterback Bo Nix's legs, but the other is the O-line, which ranks #1 in ESPN's Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR). Denver also excels at running the ball against light boxes (six or fewer defenders), especially in 11 personnel, something the Ravens struggle against. There are no real threats at TE, and the emergence of both rookie receivers, namely Devaughn Vele, has fed into the Broncos' ability to play more snaps in that grouping. Offensively for the Broncos, this is a pretty even match where they can take advantage of 12 personnel passing to isolate Courtland Sutton and Vele.

When the Ravens have the ball, all eyes will be on Lamar Jackson and his ability to lead the offense. This week, the All-Pro quarterback was held out of practices for knee and back issues. Baltimore's ability to run the ball with Lamar is critical to the offense's success. Denver runs a five-man front defense that leans heavily into Cover 1. Against QB runs, the defender in charge of the QB is now also playing the deep post. That constant push and pull of that defender is why the Ravens have been so successful. Ironically, in man coverage, Denver is not ranked as high as you'd think. Jackson & Co. have a clear advantage against teams that want to run man against them. Cleveland switched it up a bit last week and played more zone. I'd suspect Denver's DC, Vance Joesph, does the same. This will also be a big game for Derek Henry, as well as his ability to keep the offense ahead of the chains if Lamar is too hurt to run the ball. Baltimore does have an advantage between the tackles; they just don't want to run at Bronco's defensive lineman, Zach Allen.

Lions vs. Packers

Detroit seems to be on a tear in the past couple of weeks, scoring over 30 points in their last four games. Still, that is being generous. Outside of their 31-29 win against the Vikings, the offense has hummed to an average score of 47-17. The Packers will be a step up in competition from the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Titans. The Packers' defense has been playing better recently as first-year DC Jeff Hafley settles into his job. The loss of rookie Safety Evan Williams to a hamstring injury has forced the Packers to reshuffle their secondary. Rookie Nickel Javon Bullard now has to play deep, where he has struggled sometimes. Former Nickel Keisian Nixon has to return to his original position. That move puts the rotation of Eric Stokes and Carrington Valentine into the game. The new mix exposes the Packers in the passing game, even with Safety Xavier McKinney having an All-Pro year. Detroit has a clear advantage in the passing game, and the Packers will attempt to make the Lions one-dimensional or die trying.

Green Bay's offense struggles against man coverage. The Lions run Cover 1 at the third highest rate. They are also fourth in Cover 1 in average EPA and second in success rate. There has been a lot of talk around the young Packers receiving corp, which doesn't have one defined superstar. Still, the group is more than adequate and can be dangerous. QB Jordan Love needs to take advantage of his deep shot chances, which Green Bay has excelled in this year. The Lions rank 21st in success rate against long-yardage throws. Turnovers have also been an issue. Green Bay ranks 24th in giveaways, while Detroit is #2 in takeaways. The Packers must establish game control on the ground and avoid long-yardage situations. On the ground, the Packers must attack the outside of the box and be willing to run when Detroit loads it. Those are apparent mismatches in favor of the Packers. They have a chance if LaFluer can keep the Packers ahead of the chains and the Detroit offense off the field.

Rams vs. Seahawks

Image: Harry How/Getty Images

There is a three-way tie at first place in the NFC West, though the Cardinals have the tiebreaker, having gone 2-0 thus far in the division. The Rams got healthy and eviscerated a Vikings defense that was first in most advanced metrics. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp playing together looks like a cheat code. Adding a healthy run game behind a healthy O-line and Kyren Williams amplifies the passing game even more. At 3-4, the Rams need a win against the Seahawks to pull one step closer to striking distance in the division. There are clear advantages in the passing game, and the scheme itself deflects many teams from using man coverage, something the Seahawks can excel at with Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon. The issue is that Seattle doesn't have a Nickel or 3rd CB to create packages. Stopping the run has also been an issue for the Seahawks this year. Head Coach Mike Macdonald is trying to implement a few new additions to help up front, relieving pressure on the backend.

QB Geno Smith has been an unsung hero in the Seattle offense for several years. The passing numbers are excellent this year, but the offense has struggled to run the ball and keep a clean pocket for Geno. The Rams' defense isn't great at stopping the run, but their front line is young and a rising group within the NFL. Rookie Edge Jared Verse is arguably in line for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and inside rookie Braden Fiske has also been seen as a rising star. Edge Byron Young and Kobie Turner are also seen as potential stars. The secondary in LA may be lacking talent, but the front makes their life much easier creating pressure. Seattle has a receiving corp that can compete and generate plenty of explosives. If Seattle can keep Geno upright, they can keep pace with the LA offense.

Sunday Night

Colts vs. Vikings

Image: Minnesota Vikings

Joe Flacco is the official starting quarterback for the Colts from here on out, or until owner Jim Irsay decides to return to their young QB. On paper, this is a mismatch for the Indy offense. Though the Vikings have lost two games in a row, both matchups with the Lions and Rams were situations where the offense could take advantage of the deficiencies found in Minnesota's scheme. Minnesota will bring in an aggressive zone style of offense that will attempt to pressure Joe Flacco, who has never been very mobile. The O-line in Indianapolis is not an issue, but the Vikings DC, Brian Flores, can cook up pressures. Look for the Colts to utilize more Empty formations, something Minnesota statistically struggles against, to spread the secondary out and make it easy for Flacco to see the spaces he can take advantage of. Running the ball has been the backbone of the Colts' offense, but Minnesota is elite at stopping it. There is no clear advantage on the ground.

Minnesota's offense hasn't necessarily gone dark in their two-game losing streak. Against Indianapolis, there are clear advantages in the passing game, but the secondary, for the Colts, has shown an ability to create turnovers. Gus Bradley, the Colts' DC, doesn't deviate much from his four-down Cvoer 3 base, but his secondary can play man very well when they want to. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should be able to feast on intermediate throws against the Colts' Cover 3. On the ground, it may be a little more challenging. Still, the Vikings are coming out of a stretch of six games where they played five of the better offensive schemes in football. Look for them to get back on track Sunday Night.

Monday Night

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs

Kansas City will take on an offense without any of its outside weapons. TE Cade Otten is fantastic but can't support the whole unit alone. Baker Mayfield will be without his primary targets, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, in the foreseeable future. That means rookie Jalen McMillian, Sterling Shepard, and last year's sixth-round pick Trey Palmer must step up. The main advantage the Bucs have on offense is in the passing game. The issue is whether they can get open. KC has built a monster up front and is one of the best run defenses in football. Tampa Bay may have three RBs and a much better run game, but their only advantages are to in 12 and 21 personnel versus the Chiefs. Game control will be critical for Tampa Bay. If they can run the ball effectively enough to keep Baker from throwing 50 times, they might be able to stay in striking distance of the Chiefs.

Offensively, the Chiefs have been a shell of themselves. Still, the addition of Deandre Hopkins should help. Kansas City will face a defense that likes to blitz and play zone coverage, which are all things Mahomes likes to destroy. Travis Kelce should also have a big night in the intermediate. There are no real disadvantages when the Chiefs want to pass the ball. The Bucs are much better on the ground, ranking 10th in run DVOA. The Chiefs, statistically, still have advantages.

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