NFL Week 9 Thursday Night Preview: Texans vs Jets

If an award could have been given to the offseason winner, it might have gone to the Jets. Aaron Rodgers was finally healthy. The defense was primed for success with the addition of Haason Reddick at Edge to complement an already staunch defense. Of course, there were questions about the offense, but most believed Rodgers would send the franchise to great heights.

Eight weeks into the season, that dream has become a nightmare in New York. Head Coach Robert Saleh was fired, and since then, the defense has taken a nose dive statistically. Rodgers is currently leading the 21st-ranked DVOA offense. One that also ranks 29th in rushing DVOA, even though the two most talented players on offense might be their RBs.

Though they traded for disgruntled Raiders WR Davante Adams to create a reunion with his former quarterback, the run game is the real issue at hand. Adams addition should help the overall play of the offense, shifting focus from Garrett Wilson, who had 113 yards against the Patriots.

After Saleh's firing, the demotion of offensive coordinator Nat Hackett led to what appears to be a re-emphasis in the run game. Still, everyone knows Rodgers is in total control of the offense. For the most part, the static alignments and spread-out formations haven't led to many points. After a 2-1 start, there was confidence that this team might be able to push for a Wildcard spot in the playoffs.

Five straight losses later, the Jets front office might wonder why they used draft capital just to appease their starting quarterback. There are even rumors that New York might trade Adams again after a few weeks on the roster. 'Tank watch' is in full effect.

At 2-6, the Jets are going in the complete opposite direction of the Houston Texans, who currently sit 6-2. It hasn't been all pretty. Major questions surround the Texans' offense, which has O-line issues and injuries to its receiving corps. Still, Joe Mixon has been a great asset when healthy.

CJ Stroud is not lighting the world on fire, either. Many felt he would have transcendent growth in year two, but that just hasn't been the case. The sophomore quarterback is playing well, though, with only four interceptions on the year. Heading into the Jets game on a shortened week, he will be without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs.

At 20th in overall offensive DVOA, most pundits and fans feel a lot has been left on the table. Though 6-2, the way some talk about this team, you'd think they have the same record as the Jets. That isn't the case.

Defensively, this is likely the best unit in football and will surpass the Vikings statistically in the next few weeks. The secondary is a monster, and the front is playing as well as any unit in the NFL. Defense travels, even though the Texans' offense might not.

Image: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

When New York has the ball:

The problem with the Jets' offense is that it doesn't match up well with Houston's nickel-based defense. Rookie Kamari Lassiter has become a perfect partner to Derek Stingley Jr. Both CBs are prototypical outside physical CBs and fit perfectly into DeMeco Ryan's defense. Houston runs a mix of Cover 1, Cover 3, and Quarters. In each coverage, the Texans rank in the top 10 in EPA.

Rodgers will have to contend not only with one of the best secondaries in the league but also with a defensive front that is third in sacks with 26 total. Houston's Pressure Rate Production (PRP) is 15th, so the unit is a little boom-or-bust. New York's O-line has been struggling all year with pressure. There is a way to counter the aggression from the Texans' front and lockdown mentality in the backend: short passes. The Jets Breece Hall is one of the best receiving RBs out of the backfield, and Houston is 26th in success rate in the short area of the field.

The Jets must run the ball to keep the Texans off Aaron Rodgers. The Houston defense has struggled against 12 personnel runs and is 24th in success rate when the ball is run between the tackles. The Jets have two competent RBs in Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen. A surefire way to slow down a D-line is to run the ball right at them.

When Houston has the ball:

The main concern will be who will catch the ball for CJ Stroud. The Jets' secondary can be dangerous when playing up to par. DJ Reed is quickly becoming a superstar alongside the noteworthy All-Pro Sauce Gardner. The latter has taken a dip in play, but Branden Echols has also emerged as a trade candidate and a viable option alongside Reed or Sauce if one is injured.

Houston's offense has struggled to find consistency in the O-line all year. The unit ranks in the bottom ten in Pass Block and Run Block Win Rates (ESPN). Still, the talent is there to overcome those obstacles. The Jets are a top-10 defense regarding pressure creation, putting the Houston offense in a similar situation.

The Jets have the #1 overall success rate when blitzing in the NFL, and though they don't do it often, they might heat up the Texans' O-line, especially with a completely different receiving corps. But Houston also struggles on non-blitz plays. Look for New York to turn the dial up against the Texans' passing game.

Similar to the Jets, the Texans will need to establish the run. An area in which they can do that is 21 personnel. The Jets are 24th in success rate against that package, and the Texans can easily turn this into a grind-it-out ugly game (it is a Thursday!). Mixon being healthy also allows OC Bobby Slowik to lean into the run game. The play-action passing, especially with WR Tank Dell as a deep threat, could be enough to keep the Jets defenders at bay. In both cases, this game comes down to who can best protect their quarterback.

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