NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Preview: Vikings vs Rams
With the loss to the Lions this past weekend, the Chiefs are now the sole undefeated team in the NFL. Minnesota will travel west on a short week to play the Rams, who are trudging through the season. LA is a dangerous team and can play well, especially at home.
Detroit's offense is not an offshoot of Sean McVay's but very similar to many critical schemes. The Vikings also have put a lot of tape out on how they plan to defend the Shanahan/McVay system. Outside of the Cardinals' 41-10 drubbing of the Rams, LA has kept games close, even picking off the 49ers.
Minnesota will need to recalibrate after their last-minute loss to the Lions. Johnson and Goff used the Vikings' aggressiveness against them, hitting voided zones and making plays against their pressures. The short week won't necessarily allow Minnesota to self-scout and adjust like a regular week. Still, the Vikings have the best defense in the NFL, and DC Brain Flores has shown the ability to adjust his scheme when needed.
Offensively, the Vikings matched the productivity of Detroit. Both teams had eerily similar box scores, with the main difference being a missed 2-point conversion early in the game making the difference. Sam Darnold has played well so far this season, and though he had good individual stats on Sunday, he probably had his second-worst game of the season.
The Rams will enter the game with Cooper Kupp, who hasn't played since Week 2. Overall, LA has had a rash of injuries along the offensive line, which has stagnated their offense all year. For a team that has consistently been in the top ten in DVOA, they find themselves hovering around the middle class of the NFL and a passing game that ranks 22nd in Pass DVOA (FTN). Still, they will play at home, where they are 2-1 this season.
LA's defense is nothing special, but their young defense can make plays when given the opportunity. Against the Raiders, CB Coby Durant and Safety Jaylen McCollough both finished second in Field Vision's Havoc Ratings for their position groupings. The talent on the defense, though, lies up front.
The Rams' high draft picks, Jared Verse and Braden Fiske have been tremendous this season. Verse is currently ranked the 24th-best DE in Havoc Ratings, and Fiske is ranked the 17th-best DT. Both rookies have shown flashes all year. Overall, the defense ranks 28th in DVOA, but they have shown they can be dangerous at home.
When the Rams have the ball:
The LA offense is one of the worst at running the ball. Its 4.1 yards per carry is ranked 28th in the league. Minnesota's defense thrives on stopping the run and winning early downs through pressure. The Rams' O-line has struggled this year; it sits 22nd in ESPN's Pass Rush Win Rate (but eighth in Run Block Win Rate, go figure). If the Rams are going to win this game, it will be through the air, but that lends itself to what the Vikings want to do, which is make the offense predictable.
When the Rams pass, they should have a slight advantage. Even though the Vikings' passing defense is solid, they have been prone to give up some big plays. LA has the fifth-best success rate when running 11 personnel, and Sean McVay loves that grouping (plus, Kupp is back). Minnesota ranks 12th against the package. The Rams might be able to utilize some of the Lions' tape when using Bunches or three receivers close together. McVay is a master at Bunch routes, and the Rams rank fourth in success rate using that formation. The Vikings' defense relies on five-man pressures and blitzes, which don't do well versus Bunch formations. Minnesota ranks 22nd in success rate against that formation (Telemetry).
When the Vikings have the ball:
Like the Rams, the Vikings will have mismatches in the passing game. Minnesota is the number one team in explosive passing; the Rams rank 29th in the inverse metric. Justin Jefferson should have a big day, and Darnold should be able to get back on track. If there is any 'storm cloud,' it is at a pressure rate. Minnesota is 28th in pressure rate allowed, while the Rams are 13th in pressure generated. As mentioned earlier, the D-line for the Rams can be formidable when they are all playing well. Verse, Fiske, Byron Young, and Kobie Tuner are a foundational group for the future.
Minnesota's run game is the engine of the offense. The Rams struggled with the run, and Head Coach Kevin O'Connell should be able to take pressure off his quarterback by consistently running the ball at LA. We talk a lot about game control at Field Vision, and running the ball is a great way to establish yourself as an offense and limit a young corp of aggressive D-linemen. If the Vikings can consistently win the early downs by running the ball, it will open up the play-action passing game that can be deadly.
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