NFL Week 7 Weekend Slate Preview

Texans vs. Packers

Though this is an out-of-conference game, it will significantly affect how we view these teams. The Texans are 5-1 with their sole loss to the undefeated (for now) Vikings, solid victories over the 4-2 Bears, and the Bills, who haven't beaten a team with a winning record.

Green Bay is 4-2, also with a loss to the Vikings, and has not beaten a team with a winning record. Something will have to give this weekend.

At this point in the year, a team typically reflects its record, but as we march to the halfway point, the contenders and pretenders begin to separate. The NFL playoffs don't start for several months, but this feels like a de facto playoff game.

The Texans look to be frontrunners in the AFC South, but a loss to the Packers only proves they can't play with the big boys. If the Packers lose, they will start losing traction with a loaded NFL North that has everyone sitting with 4+ wins.

When the Texans have the ball:

Look for Houston to make an aggressive effort to pass the ball. Even if Mixon is back and at full strength, the mismatch here is through the air. The Packers' Safety, Xavier McKinney, does a great job keeping a cap on offenses, but there are opportunities underneath, and CJ Stroud's accuracy can fit the ball into those windows.

When the Packers have the ball:

Green Bay must establish a run game early to keep the Houston defense honest. The Texans have the #2 defensive DVOA in the NFL, and the Packers will need to keep their opponent honest and play-action viable; they are susceptible to explosive passes. Houston's secondary is one of the best, so if they can't establish the run game, it could be a long night for Love & Co.

Lions vs. Vikings

These are two extremely even teams and know each other very well. The winner of Round 1 positions themselves nicely in their division. If Minnesota can stay undefeated, they will continue to pull away from the rest of the NFC. Everyone is waiting for Sam Darnold to lay an egg, but until he does, we have to assume he will continue with this level of play. The Vikings also have talent, with Aaron Jones returning from injury and Justin Jefferson continuing to be the best WR in the NFL.

The Lions' offense struggled through the early part of the schedule, dropping a loss to the Buccaneers, which Todd Bowles always seems to have Goff's number. Defensively, the reshuffling of the secondary and the additions to the front seven are getting the job done. Though Edge Aidan Hutchinson, who was having an All-Pro caliber year, is gone for the season, there is enough talent up front to mitigate his loss. The primary concern will be getting pressure on the QB now that their main weapon is gone.

When the Lions have the ball:

The Vikings have dominated the ground game, while the Lions are hitting their stride in this category. When Detroit runs the ball, it will be strength on strength. Most likely, the Lions will have to pass to win the game, and Goff will have to prove he won't melt under the pressure. Last year, he was solid against the blitz, but he has struggled (Tampa!) this year against pressure.

When the Vikings have the ball:

Minnesota should be able to pass the ball. Though the Lions are fifth in passing DVOA, there are issues that the Vikings and Darnold can take advantage of. Jefferson is always a mismatch, regardless of the defense. On the ground, look for Minnesota to utilize their Wide Zone schemes, attacking the edges of the box. Detroit also struggles versus 21 personnel, so look for the Vikings to use their fullback in the run game this week.

Chiefs vs. 49ers

A rematch of last year's Super Bowl will have a different feel this time. The Kansas City defense will be different from what it was last year. DC Steve Spagnuolo used man coverage and pressure to stagnate the San Fransisco offense last year. Brock Purdy and Shanahan will have to find answers, as many teams have started to use that recipe to attack the offense, especially with Christian McCaffery out of the lineup. Mahomes is still playing at a high level, though he doesn't have much help. The game has a low-scoring defensive feel to it.

When the Chiefs have the ball:

The 49ers don't pressure or disguise their coverages very often, so Mahomes will have to use his pre-snap brain power to find weaknesses in the defense. Andy Reid loves stacks and bunches, but the 49ers have struggled with them this year. Look for Mahomes to get into these looks with shifts and motions pre-snap to confuse the San Fransisco defense. Still, the 49ers have one of the best passing defenses in the NFL, so Kansas City can't abandon the run game. If it becomes a pass-first game, look for the Chiefs to struggle.

When the 49ers have the ball:

The Chiefs have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and the engine to the Kyle Shanahan offense lies on the ground. If the 49ers can't establish a run game, the Kansas City defense can pin its ears back and attack Purdy. One knock on Shanahan has been his lack of dropback passing game success. Like Kansas City, this game can't get one-dimensional. The 49ers should be able to feast on the Chiefs zone coverage, which is what they primarily run. Still, a balance must be established.

Sunday Night Football

Jets vs. Steelers

Sunday night features a low-scoring affair between two teams trying to establish themselves. Surprisingly, the Steelers are 4-2. The defense has been lights-out all year and should be able to contain Aaron Rodgers, even with Davante Adams added to the lineup.

Mike Tomlin has been tightlipped about whether embattled QB Russel Wilson will get the start against the Jets. Justin Fields has done a decent job, and the team has been winning. Though Robert Saleh was fired, the defense has stayed the same and is one of the better units in football. There is a total mismatch when both sides are on offense. Regardless of who plays QB, this will be a defensive slog to finish the NFL's Sunday slate.

Monday Night Football

Ravens vs. Buccaneers

Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level. Baltimore will face an opponent with a proven record against running quarterbacks and does not shy away from pressure. Though Tampa has a good defense, the Ravens' offense has been playing at an extremely high level. Baltimore sits first in offensive DVOA, and the distance between them and the #2 Commanders is the same as Washington to the Eagles at #12. They are in a class of their own.

Tampa has been playing at a high level on offense as well. The unit sits in the top 10 in both passing and running DVOA. Though prone to turnovers at times, Baker Mayfield has been playing very well all year. Baltimore brings a tough run defense but can be susceptible to the pass. The running element to the Buccanneers' offense has been a pleasant surprise so far this year, and they will need to show up on Monday to keep the offense balanced. If this turns into a gun-slinging game for Baker, it could get difficult for Tampa at home and fast.

When the Ravens have the ball:

Advanced metrics say this will be a tough matchup for the Buccaneers. Lamar and Derrick Henry make this offense difficult to pin down on early downs. Because of the run game, the passing game is seeing a significant boost, as defenses are prone to giving one-on-ones outside. The Buccaneers' CBs are serviceable, but their Safety duo is truly elite. Look for Lamar to attempt to find Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman early to open up the run game. Todd Bowles & Co. will undoubtedly try to pressure Lamar and get him to make mistakes early.

When the Buccaneers have the ball:

I have a feeling this will become a vintage Baker gun-slinging game. If that happens, he needs to keep the ball in Tampa's receivers' hands and not the opposing team's. Baltimore is built to stop the run, and though the Bucs have found some consistency on the ground, it could get one-dimensional fast. The Ravens struggle in almost every advanced passing metric, so Tampa needs to take advantage but don't throw the game into a tailspin by abandoning the run.

Bonus - Chargers vs. Cardinals

Los Angeles is still trying to find an identity on offense. Justin Herbert is playing well, but he has limited weapons. Defensively, Jesse Minter has carried over his success from Michigan and has the Chargers defense playing at an elite level, something many around the team have been waiting for.

Arizona has an average offense and a below-average defense. The Chargers want to physically outmatch you on both fronts. There is talent on the Cardinals roster, and though the defense is playing poorly, it can surprise teams. The Chargers' offense is still struggling to score points, and Arizona can take advantage if they can get the ball moving. Defensively, they need their three-headed monster in the Safety group to rear its head and create havoc in the intermediate zones. With limited weapons, the Chargers have relied on play-action and an intermediate passing game, which is something the Cardinals can match up with.

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