NFL Week 7 Thursday Night Preview: Broncos vs Saints

Denver is coming off a four-game stretch that saw them go 3-1, with the most recent loss coming at the hands of division rival the LA Chargers. During that three-game win streak, the Broncos have leaned heavily on their defense, and each loss has been by a touchdown or less.

Most importantly, the loss of Patrick Surtain II against LA forced the Broncos to abandon their main game plan, which involves playing man coverage and pressuring the quarterback at volume. Outside of Minnesota and Tampa Bay, no other team utilizes pressure than Vance Joseph.

With PS2 out, Denver had to shift to zone coverage, which allowed Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to have one of his best days so far. LA had been a run-dominant team, and Herbert had not eclipsed the 200-yard mark all year. He went 21/34 for 237 yards and one touchdown.

The Broncos were able to get three sacks on the day and keep JK Dobbins to 3.8 yards a carry, but 3rd Downs were a killer, with the Chargers going 11/18 on the day. Denver has a top-10 defense, but without Surtain, the secondary looked a bit lost.

Image: Ron Chenoy/USA Today

Bo Nix has played better offensively, but it has not necessarily led to an offensive explosion. Denver is 26th in offensive DVOA. When looking at the unit statistically, they could do better. Most advanced metrics have them in the bottom third of the league. The one saving grace is that they have only allowed nine sacks, which is enough for fourth in the NFL, and are second in pressure rate. The offensive line is holding up.

The Saints offense looked to be on a tear early in the season, going 2-0 against the Panthers and the Cowboys, but since then, the production has dried up. Four straight losses have many fans and pundits scratching their heads. All four of those losses have come to potential playoff teams.

The embattled quarterback Derek Carr appears to be out for another week. Both Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave are banged up, with the latter likely not to play on a short week. Hybrid TE Taysom Hill and RB Alvin Kamara are also on the injured list.

The offense has leveled out as an above-average run unit, and the passing numbers have dropped to the lower third of the league in passing DVOA. Carr has been replaced by another rookie quarterback, Spencer Rattler. In his first appearance against the Buccaneers last week, he went 22-40 for 243 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He'll need those numbers to be better against the Broncos.

On the ground, Kamara averaged over five yards a carry in the Saints' two wins. Since then, he's only gone over four yards in a carry against the Falcons. Defenses have been able to bottle up the run and force the offense to be predictable. With Olave out and Shaheed banged up, that might be an issue on Thursday, even with Surtain out.

Defensively, the unit has been stellar against the pass. On the ground, New Orleans is 26th in run DVOA. Game control in the NFL is real, and teams that can run the ball and stay ahead of the sticks make it difficult for defenses to adjust. The Saints will contend with the number twelve run DVOA defense on Thursday and need to establish a run game to keep the heat off of Rattler.

When the Broncos have the ball:

1. Spread to run. Look for Denver to utilize wider sets to get the Saints' defense spaced out. New Orleans is 31st in success rate when they are forced to play with a seven-man box.

2. Denver needs to find a way to keep Nix out of trouble when passing the ball. Look for Sean Payton to keep the passing game close to the line of scrimmage and in front of the quarterback. The Saints are second in the NFL in interceptions.

3. Denver needs to find an identity. They aren't good at anything other than protecting their quarterback, which means Nix needs to start stepping up.

When the Saints have the ball:

1. The Denver defense struggles against 21 pers. and two-back offenses. Kubiak needs to slow this game down and utilize his bigger formations to create mismatches on offense.

2. The Saints must at least attempt to push the ball down the field. With PS2 out, Chargers' QB Justin Herbert was able to find space and take advantage of the Broncos' switch to zone coverage last week. New Orleans should be able to do something similar on Thursday.

3. Look for Kamara to have a significant role in the passing game. The Saints cannot afford to keep him in the box for protection, even knowing that Denver likes to blitz. The screen game will be big for New Orleans as it gets Kamara the ball in space and is a quick and easy throw for their rookie quarterback.

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