NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Preview: 49ers vs Seahawks
The 49ers have won five straight against the Seahawks, dating back to September 2022. However, both teams have been inconsistent and struggling with injury issues. Both teams have inexplicable losses and wins versus teams they should beat.
Seattle was riding high in its first three games but has lost two consecutive contests to the Lions and Giants. In the latter, quarterback Daniel Jones went off for 257 yards passing and two TDs. On the ground, rookie RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. had 129 yards. WR Darius Slayton had over 100 yards receiving, something he has only done once since 2020.
Injuries up front have hurt the Seahawks' ability to rush the passer and stop the run consistently. For three weeks, this looked like another masterful job by Macdonald, building around his roster and amplifying the front seven. Entering the NFL's Week 6, the Seahawks defense sits 13th in DVOA.
Offensively, the Seahawks didn't struggle to gain yards; they didn't score enough to win. 3rd Down was a nightmare agains the Giants, going 3/11 and 0-2 on 4th Downs. Geno rushed for 72 yards to lead the team, but those came mostly from scrambles. Though he can run, Seattle isn't about to start designing QB runs for their franchise QB.
The lack of a run game the past two weeks has been alarming. Though Kenneth Walker was back in the lineup, he could only muster 19 yards on five carries. To date, backup RB Zach Charbonnet hasn't been much better. He's currently averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
Seattle is still fifth in run DVOA, but alarm bells are ringing after the team has quickly abandoned the run game in the past several weeks. OC Ryan Grubbs stated after the loss to New York, "[I've] Got to get the ball to Ken more. And I think we had plenty of run game in the plan, didn't have anything to do with not having enough calls for that, just didn't get called." Right now, the Seahawks are too predictable.
In San Fransisco, injuries have also been an issue. The loss of Christian McCaffery has been a considerable blow. His presence makes the offense go. The 49ers have consistently been in the top five of DVOA, but heading into Week 6, they sit 10th overall and an abysmal 20th in run DVOA. The whole premise of the Shanahan style of offense is to let the run game open up the passing game. Without it, the offense gets stale.
Defensively, the loss of talent up front is starting to catch up with San Fransisco. One of the major concerns heading into 2024 was the fact that the 49ers would only have Joey Bosa to rush the passer. Under Shanahan, the defense was built to utilize the front four to gain pressure, which allowed the linebackers and defensive backs to focus on the pass. Without an elite rush, the defense has had to open up the blitz package, which can change the math in the backend.
The 49ers' kicking game will be interesting, too, with K Jake Moody out. All-Pro Safety Talanoa Hufanga will also miss the game. The defense functions much better with him in the game. Still, Fred Warner and Bosa are both available.
When Seattle has the ball:
The Seahawks are 23rd in explosive rate but will need to produce some deep shots to beat the 49ers, who are susceptible in that area.
Grubbs said he wants to run the ball and will need to control the game. Look for Seattle to use more 12 pers. formations to get the ground game going.
Geno needs to target man coverage. San Fransisco ranks 25th in success rate when running man, while Seattle ranks fourth in that metric.
One area of concern is the run game. The 49ers are good against inside runs, an area where the Seahawks tend to struggle.
3rd Downs have been an issue all year. Seattle's 8.9 yards to go on 3rd is the worst in the league. That also means they need to win more on early downs, something the 49ers thrive on.
Pressure should be a concern for Seattle. The 49ers' D-line can be a mismatch against a struggling O-line—the Seahawks rank 30th in both Pass Block and Run Block Win Rates, per ESPN.
When the 49ers have the ball:
Kyle Shanahan is elite on first Downs, which sets his offense up on third Downs. The 49ers are second in the NFL in third-down average, with the Seahawks defense sitting 30th. Early downs are a mismatch in this game.
Seattle has 16 sacks on the year, good enough for sixth in the NFL. The 49ers have struggled this year with pressure. Though the sack total is high, the Seahawks are only 18th in Pressure Rate. Macdonald must cook up some looks to get Prudy off his spot.
One aspect this offense has struggled with in recent games is man coverage, which dates back to last year. The Seahawks have two elite outside CBs who are big and physical. Macdonald has been running a high volume of closed-post coverage, leaving Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon on islands. With Woolen out, it appears the plan for Seattle to play more man, might not be in the cards.
The 49ers feast on Cover 3, and the Seahawks run the coverage at the fifth highest rate. If Macdonald wants to play zone over man coverage, this could positively impact the 49ers.
Look for Shanahan to 'spread it out' a bit more formationally. The 49ers have struggled with loaded boxes, and the Seahawks play Cover 3 at volume, placing eight defenders near the box. Seattle is 25th when defending the box with six, something the 49ers are elite at (#5).
Conclusion: Both teams want to right the ship in a short week and seize control in the NFC West. Overall, these are two evenly matched teams. Each team will be looking to establish the run early. The first team to blink and abandon it will probably lose.
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