NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Preview: Buccaneers vs Falcons

The NFC South is wide open, and the first round of the top two contenders takes place this Thursday. Initially, the Saints looked to be world beaters, railing off two consecutive victories over the Panthers and Cowboys that saw them score over 40 points in both matchups. Then reality set in as New Orleans lost to the Eagles and Falcons in consecutive weeks. The Falcons will enter the game with the Buccaneers holding a 1-0 record in the division and home-field advantage.

Since the signing of Kirk Cousins, the Falcons have been the favorite team to win the NFL South. The veteran QB has all the pieces to make a great offense around him: an elite RB, an athletic TE, and a trio of decent WRs. The Falcons are stuck dead in the middle of DVOA through the first quarter of the league's schedule. The unit is a top-ten rushing team, but the passing game hasn't gotten off the ground.

Cousins will have to face a defense that loves to send pressure. Head Coach Todd Bowles has typically been at the top of the NFL's list in Blitz Rate, and with a hobbled Cousins, expect that not to change. The Falcons' offensive line is eleventh in Pressure Rate but has only given up six sacks this year.

The run game will be vital for Atlanta. Tampa is averaging over five yards per rush so far this year. Atlanta has yet to get Bijan going outside their game with the Eagles. He needs to have a big game to keep the rush at bay.

When the Falcons pass, they must contend with the rush and a secondary that has played relatively well. When the pass rush is hitting, it can be difficult for an offense to move the ball against them. There have been significant injuries within Tampa's starting line-up this year. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and iDL Calijah Kancey have missed time. The former is part of a duo with Jordan Whitehead, making up one of the best Safety duos in the league.

Cousins will have his hands full, but the Falcons have the tools to handle the Bucs' pressures. Look for Bijan to have a big piece of the target share in this one. Five-man pressures struggle against RBs in the pass concept. The counter to this is that the Falcons have to protect Cousins. ESPN has the Atlanta O-line ranked 14th in Pass Block Win Rate through four weeks.

Image: AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

At 3-1, the Buccaneers sit in control of their destiny through four weeks. Outside of the Broncos game in Week 3, Tampa has looked impressive. Analytically, similar to Atlanta, they are middle-of-the-road in most metrics. The offense is 19th in DVOA, and the defense is 13th. Nothing special.

QB Baker Mayfield has had a decent start to the year, and WR Chris Godwin has been averaging 80 yards per game. Against the Broncos, a glaring issue popped up, though. The Buccaneers' O-line currently sits 28th in Pass Block Win Rate. Against Denver and the Lions, Tampa gave up 12 total sacks, seven of which were to the Broncos. They were able to clean up some of their protection issues against the Eagles, only allowing two sacks.

One of the main culprits is the run game or lack thereof. Tampa Bay is 24th in run DVOA and has only two total explosive runs. Their 38.1% success rate (positive EPA run) is near the bottom of the league.

Atlanta's defense is below average against the run, and the Buccaneers must establish it to keep Mayfield upright. The Falcons' rush is one of the worst in the NFL and has been for some time. The addition of Matthew Judon has helped, but the Falcons are still 29th in Pass Rush Win Rate. Running the ball will slow it down even further.

Baker Mayfield is having a resurgence of sorts in Tampa. The Buccaneers offense is tenth in average yards per pass and second in passing TDs. Still, there needs to be more balance in the offense. Atlanta plays soft zone, and the underneath to intermediate should be there. This season, the Falcons lead the league in explosive passes (+20), only giving up four. The Buccaneers offense isn't opposed to using Rachaad White out of the backfield; he's the third-leading receiver on the team.

Both of these teams are essentially looking in the mirror. Each has its own strengths and weaknesses, but overall, both teams are in the middle class of the NFL. Both need to establish ground games and stay away from a classic shootout. Tampa has more punch in the pass rush element, but Atlanta's secondary is better. The Falcons have the edge at home, but it is slight. Win, and Atlanta is even with the Bucs; lose, and Tampa starts to pull away from the rest of the South.

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