NFL Week 17 Weekend Slate Preview

Saturday Slate

Broncos vs. Bengals

Denver is a defensive team in '24 and is ahead of schedule. Few thought the Broncos would be in playoff contention at the beginning of the year, but Sean Payton has done a masterful job developing rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

The secondary has slipped a little without second-year Corner Riley Moss, who has been struggling with a knee injury. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph could lean into man coverage when he was paired up with All-Pro Pat Surtain II. With Moss out and some injuries at other positions, the coverage has shifted to more soft zones. Last year, that got the Bronco's defense into trouble. Against the Bengals, who must win out and hope Denver loses every game, the Broncos should be healthy.

If it weren't for an abysmal defense, we would likely consider Joe Burrow an MVP candidate. Instead, the defense fell off a cliff. Cincinnati is currently ranked 29th in DVOA and 20th in EPA/play. Offensively, the Bengals are fifth in overall DVOA but 21st when running the ball. The Broncos have the best run defense in the league and will look to make the Bengals one-dimensional.

Look for Denver to pound the rock and take timely shots to keep the ball out of Burrow's hands. The Bengals will need to establish some kind of a run game, or Denver will be able to pin their ears back and rush Burrow. The Broncos are also one of the best pressure teams in the league. For both teams, this is a de facto playoff game. If Denver wins, they are in; if the Bengals win, they stay alive for one more week.

Sunday Slate

Cowboys vs. Eagles

Philly is a lock for at least the number two spot in the playoffs. With a Lions loss, there is a chance that the Eagles could move up to the number one spot. But that means they have to win out. Jalen Hurts is banged up, and the Cowboys would love nothing more than to get a win in Philly to spoil any hope for the Eagles. A loss to Dallas, and there is no way to catch the Lions.

With Dak out, the offense has recommitted to running the ball. Cooper Rush isn't flashy, but he is consistent and finds ways to win. Dallas will again lean into the run game, but that is exactly what Fangio wants. His defense forces offenses to drive the ball while he compresses the passing game with his top-down philosophy in coverage. The Cowboys will have to play mistake-free football if they are to pull off the upset.

Packers vs. Vikings

For all the success the Packers have had this year, their 1-3 record in the division has to sting. This game doesn't affect seeding, as Minnesota is up two games, but both teams will want to treat it as a warm-up for the playoffs.

The Packers' defense has slowly been creeping up the rankings, even with a revolving door in the secondary due to injury. They will face a Minnesota offense that, though dangerous, has had issues moving the ball at times. The Vikings should be able to take advantage of the Packers in the passing game, but if they can't establish a consistent run game, it will allow the Packers to allocate more numbers in the back end.

The run game for Green Bay has been a breath of fresh air. Jordan Love has been able to unload a lot of the pressure to make plays with his arm. His interceptions were a concern at one point, but he hasn't thrown one in five weeks. Against the Vikings, Love, and Co. will face one of the best fronts in football. The ability to create pressure and negative plays on early downs has allowed Brian Flores to mask a secondary that can struggle if the quarterback has time.

Sunday Night

Falcons vs. Commanders

The Commanders want to lock up a playoff spot while the Falcons hold on for dear life. Washington has cooled off recently, but the offense (and defense) looks to improve as the playoffs near. Atlanta is now in its Penix era, and he had a decent first outing. Look for the Falcons to run the ball and keep Penix from needing to be a hero. The Commanders' run defense isn't great, so there will be room to run. For the Commanders, Jayden Daniels will have time to throw. It will be hard for Atlanta to keep pace if he performs well.

Monday Night

Lions vs. 49ers

Most would have had this penciled into their schedule at the beginning of the year. Fast-forward to today, and both teams are on different ends of the spectrum. For most of the year, the Lions have looked like the best team in football. Recently, the defense has been regressing due to injuries, but the offense has stayed consistently elite.

San Fransisco still has an excellent defense and an elite secondary. The major blemish on the defensive side is the run game, which sits 23rd in EPA/play. That doesn't bode well against a Detroit team that doesn't mind running the ball. The 49ers have had issues on offense, too, with some pundits asking if Purdy is worth the $60 million price tag that is the going rate for quarterbacks. The 49ers have been eliminated from the playoffs, and Detroit needs to win one more to lock them in the top spot. Overall, this should still be a good game; it just doesn't carry the weight it did back in August.

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