NFL Week 17 Christmas Day and Thursday Night Preview

Christmas Day

Chiefs vs. Steelers

A win by Kansas City ensures the Chiefs have home-field advantage through the playoffs. A win for Pittsburgh keeps them ahead of the Ravens in their division. The Steelers have lost two straight, dropping games to the Eagles and the Ravens. They have three losses in their last five games. When George Pickens plays, the Steeler offense can move the ball consistently; without him, teams can load the box and lock up their receivers. Still, Kansas City has a staunch run defense and a secondary gaining confidence each week. McDuffie is back to All-Pro from outside, and Joshua Williams is long, rangy, and coming into his own. That doesn't bode well for Pittsburgh, who is looking for a marquee win before entering the playoffs. Mike Tomlin doesn't want a three-game skid before playing the Bengals in their finale.

Though the Chiefs are not racking up the points, they have one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. They were the first to get the two-high explosion against them and have adjusted nicely. Kansas City is getting healthy, too. Mahomes tweaked his ankle, but it didn't show last week. One curveball the Steelers could throw at the Chiefs is to run more Quarters. Tomlin did this against the Browns several weeks ago with great success. Kansas City struggles with Quarters, and though they are used to not getting many explosives, the coverage has given them fits. Pittsburgh doesn't run it often, but when they do, they are elite at it. Regardless, if the Chiefs can control the ground game and keep TJ Watt off of Mahomes, this should be another victory for the Chiefs.

Ravens vs. Texans

Houston has had an erratic season on offense. At the end of last year, most pundits wanted to peg CJ Stroud as the next elite young quarterback. In '24, that just hasn't happened. First, there were injuries to the receiving corps and a lack of a run game. Though the Texans are a lock to win the AFC South, they aren't going to want to limp into the playoffs. Last week, they lost to the Chiefs. This week, they face the Ravens, finishing with the Titans. Baltimore's secondary has had issues all year, and Nico Collins is back to being healthy. The Ravens hold one of the better run defenses, and if they make the Texans one-dimensional, it will be tough sledding in the points department.

The Texans have been leaning on their elite secondary all year. The Ravens have one of the more explosive offenses, but that hasn't prevented them from having an overwhelming win-loss record. Baltimore cannot allow the Texans to stuff the box by playing man coverage outside. At some point, one of the Ravens' receivers has to get loose, which has been hard to come by for Texans' opponents. The run game will be the key; if they can consistently move the chains on the ground, that will open up areas down the field. It's a simple math problem that the Ravens offense was built to solve.

Thursday Night

Seahawks vs. Bears

Seattle is barely alive in the playoff run and will need some help to make it to the postseason. Chicago hasn't won since beating the Jaguars in London back in mid-October. The Seahawks can't look ahead to their season finale matchup with the Rams.

The ground game in December and January is what wins playoff games, along with defense. The latter has improved in Seattle, but back-to-back weeks against the Packers and Vikings have led to two straight losses. That losing streak has allowed the Rams to get hot and pull ahead of them in the standings. The Seattle run game has had its moments, but against good opponents, it tends to disappear. Against the Vikings, they were able to muster 59 yards on the ground and against the Packers 80. Chicago's run defense has fallen off a cliff, and there's no better time to prep for their battle against LA than to get the run game rolling with some momentum.

Geno Smith has had a good year, but his 15 interceptions are concerning. Chicago has one of the highest pressure rates in the NFL but a league-average sack rate. Seattle consistently has issues with protection, so Smith has to take chances with his passes. The Bears' secondary is dangerous and can play at an elite level. If the ground game can't get going, it could become a trap for the Seahawks.

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