NFL Week 14 Weekend Slate Preview

Falcons vs. Vikings

Atlanta has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL regarding yards. At 258 yards a game, Cousins is leading the third-best attack in that metric. One area where the passing game is strong is on early downs, with Atlanta at #8 in success rate. Early downs, in particular, are going to be critical to the success of the Falcons against the Vikings. Minnesota is 29th in success rate against 1st Down passing. Brian Flores wants to suffocate the run game and get the offense into predictable passing situations. That is when Minnesota runs its simulated pressures and disguises its coverages. A key element of this matchup will be whether Atlanta can stay ahead of the chains. So far this year, they have struggled, ranking 26th in average 3rd Down yardage to gain. If Minnesota consistently forces long yardage situations, it will be a long game for Cousins and Co.

Minnesota's run game has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks. Heading into Week 14, the Vikings are 21st in DVOA. The heavier personnel sets allow teams to double Justin Jefferson when their offense can't run the ball. Though the All-Pro receiver may be inevitable, and Addison's rise has helped, teams can make it difficult for Darnold to pass the ball. Minnesota has a clear advantage in the passing game, but they can't abandon the run or consistently get off-schedule. Look for 12 and 21-personnel formations with a heavy dose of inside runs and play-action passing versus Atlanta's non-existent pass rush and limited secondary.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

The Seahawks won the first matchup two weeks ago and took first place in the division. Both teams desperately want to make it to the postseason and are relatively evenly matched. With the 49ers limping through the season and the Rams with inconsistent play, there's light at the end of the tunnel for both teams. Seattle's main advantage will be through the air. The issues with the Seahawks sometimes stem from their abandonment of the run game. In some outings, Geno has to 'win' the game through the air, even though the offensive line is porous. Against the Cardinals, Seattle will face a defense that is slowly getting better and playing with more confidence. Arizona doesn't have many premium players, but they have one of the best Safety duos in football and two adequate CBs that can hold their own outside.

Though it may come as a surprise to many, Arizona has a top-ten offense in DVOA. They sit 7th overall and hold the 6th-best passing attack in the metric. Seattle has struggled at times on defense, and when they last played the Cardinals, they made a concerted effort to eliminate the run game. The game plan will be much the same in Phoenix if the Seahawks can stagnate the run game and force Kyler Murray into a pure dropback passing attack, which favors Seattle. Arizona needs to stay on schedule and commit to running the ball. After going four-for-four in their games leading up to the bye, they've dropped two to the Vikings and Seahawks. The rest of the schedule is favorable, and a win at home against their divisional rival gets them that much closer to the postseason.

Sunday Night Football

Chargers vs. Chiefs

The Chargers passing offense is average outside of Deep Passing success rate (#3). DVOA has LA at 12th. The question in this game will be, 'Can the Chargers take advantage of the Chiefs' secondary?' Moving away from L'Jarius Sneed was warranted, but Kansas City didn't replace him. So far, the move to place McDuffie outside has hindered the overall performance of the secondary. Kansas City holds one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and the Chargers rely heavily on the ground game. Still, Harbaugh has Justin Herbert playing very well. One deficiency in the Chiefs' run defense is against 12 pers. and heavier packages. That is something the Chargers don't mind getting into. They will need to make the game 'ugly,' but will they be able to score enough points in doing so?

Early in the season, pundits were raving about the Chargers' ability to stop the run using a light box. As the season has passed, the run defense in LA has slipped and now sits 15th in run DVOA. Even with injuries, the secondary has played very well. Overall, the Chargers rely heavily on takeaways to change the course of games. With Pacheco back, look for the Chiefs to lean into the run game, something they have gotten away from in his absence. There is a clear advantage on the ground, which should loosen up the secondary enough for Mahomes to throw the ball against LA's heavy zone defense.

Monday Night Football

Bengals vs. Cowboys

Joe Burrow is having a historic year, and so is his defense, one of the worst in the NFL. Though the Bengals score points in droves, they also give them up in return. The Cowboys have committed more effort to the run game, with Dak Prescott gone. Cooper Rush has done a tremendous job when he is in at QB and even has Dallas buzzing about a playoff run. First, they must beat a Bengals team that is heading in the wrong direction. This game could be a total shootout or an ugly slugfest. Depends on if the Cincy defense (finally) shows up and how productive the Cowboys offense can be.

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