NFL Week 11 Weekend Preview

Ravens vs. Steelers

When Baltimore has the ball:

Both teams have defensive cultures within the organization. Though the Ravens' defense has struggled against the pass this year, both teams are top-ten against the run. Baltimore's 'engine' is the run game behind Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. This year, the Ravens don't have to lean on Jackson for a boost in the run game; they can just give it to their resident battering ram in Henry.

Henry's signing has been a boon for the passing game. Lamar can now sit in the pocket and focus on passing the ball downfield, amplifying the play-action passing game. It is a spinning cycle of death for an NFL defense. The gap between the Ravens, who are #1 in DVOA, and the #2 Commanders is the same as Washington to Seattle at #15. What we are seeing from the Ravens is truly historic.

The Steelers have a top-ten defense and will give the Ravens a real test. Pittsburgh is now a 3-4 Base but has played more four-down this year because of personnel. The defensive front is the main engine for their defense, featuring TJ Watt. The ability to stop the run allows the defense to allocate more numbers in the back end. Pittsburgh has one of the lower Blitz Rates in the league and uses its D-line to control the line of scrimmage. The Ravens tend to lay eggs at times, and against the Steelers, they must be on point to secure first place in the division.

When the Steelers have the ball:

The apparent mismatch in this game will be the Ravens' secondary against the outside passing of the Steelers. One of the issues this year under new DC Zach Orr has been the lack of production from the secondary, primarily at CB. Marlon Humphrey has been excellent at Nickel, but last year, Kyle Hamilton was able to play more snaps in the Slot. The loss of Geno Stone and the lack of production from Marcus Williams (and the disappearance of Eddie Jackson) has forced Baltimore to keep Hamilton away from the box.

The run defense is still there. Pittsburgh is built to run the ball and throw the ball down the 'red line' (outside and deep). George Pickens is having a breakout year because he finally has a quarterback built for his skill set. Adding the Jets' Mike Williams only amplifies Wilson's ability to throw outside. OC Arthur Smith won't abandon the run game, but they will need to prove they can move the ball to get the Ravens out of split-field looks where they can 'cap' the outside.

Falcons vs. Broncos

When Atlanta has the ball:

Kirk Cousins, at times, looks like a statue in the pocket, which won't bode well against the #1 pressure team in the NFL. Not only does Denver wreak havoc on opposing QBs, but they also have one of the best-run defenses in the league. One area that the Falcons can take advantage of is the Broncos' use of man coverage. Atlanta is seventh in success rate vs. man, while the Broncos have struggled in the coverage. Ironically, Cover 1 is Denver's primary coverage. With the Broncos back healthy in the secondary, the man coverage metrics should begin to tick back up. If Atlanta is going to win, they will need to keep Cousins from throwing 50 times at Mile High.

When Denver has the ball:

Bo Nix should have ample time to throw the ball this week. Denver is #1 in the NFL in pressure rate allowed, while Atlanta is 32nd. Atlanta's coverage has been spotty, but there is enough talent to care for the Broncos receivers. Nix will most likely need to run the ball or use his legs to create space down the field.

Running the ball will be crucial for Denver's success. If they can establish the run and force Atlanta into shortened 3rd Downs, they can score some points. The Broncos' success rate running the ball in 11 pers. is seventh in the NFL to Atlanta's 30th when stopping the run against these formations. I see Sean Payton going 'collegiate,' speeding up the tempo, and letting Nix do what he does best, which is being accurate underneath zone coverage.

Chiefs vs. Bills

When Kansas City has the ball:

The game in Buffalo is by far the biggest matchup this week. Both of these teams fully expect to be fighting for the top spot in the AFC at year's end, and this game will go a long way toward deciding homefield advantage. A lot has been said about the lack of production by Mahomes & Co. on offense, but they have been able to win games in all sorts of ways, which is a mark of a championship team. Around Buffalo, there have been concerns about the Safety play even though Rapp and Hamlin are ranked in Field Visions Top-30 in Havoc Ratings for their position. Losing Taron Johnson earlier in the year didn't help. Now that the defense is getting healthy, the secondary should start playing better. I say all this, and they are still 11th in passing DVOA.

The game with Buffalo should put the weight on Mahomes to produce in the passing game. The Bills have played more Cover 3 this year but are still zone-dominant. Kansas City is #1 in success rate against man coverage, but that won't carry over this week. There is no clear advantage in the run game, and with Pacheco banged up, the ground game hasn't been consistent all year.

When Buffalo has the ball:

I see the Bills getting into 12 pers. and grinding it out against the Chiefs. Buffalo is #8 in success rate passing from 12 pers. and #1 when in 21 pers. Both of those packages seem to give the Chiefs passing defense fits. The Chiefs will likely place McDuffie on Cooper and attempt to play man coverage. Kansas City is 25th in success rate when running zone. Overall, the defense is fourth in DVOA and ninth in passing DVOA, but when you splice it, a clear picture forms of what Kansas City is good at and what they struggle with. I see Spags playing more man and trying to compress the Bills receivers, forcing Allen to beat them with his legs.

Running the ball is where the Chiefs excel; they are built to be multiple up front. Coverage can be an issue, but Kansas City attempts to cover some of those deficiencies with pressure. The Bills will have to run Allen, even though they probably don't want to get into 'playoff mode' this year. This game has a classic grind-it-out feel—condensed formations, heavy packages, and running the ball to open up the passing game.

Sunday Night Football

Bengals vs. Chargers

LA's Jesse Minter has done exceptionally well in his first season in the NFL. The Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL and match the physicality that Jim Harbaugh wants on his team. Though their light box run game has fallen off the past few weeks, LA is willing to give up yards in the run game to slow the pace of the offense and shift their focus to the passing game.

The Bengals lack a legitimate run game, where they sit 29th in run DVOA. That plays into precisely what Minter wants to do defensively. He can play more coverage if the Chargers can control the box with six or seven. LA is second in split-field shell usage and is #1 in EPA per play when running them. The Bengals have two of the best receivers in the NFL but can be 'doubled' when teams can run split-field concepts. I see the Bengals trying to spread things out, running more Empty and forcing the Chargers to cover the entire field.

The Chargers' offense has slowly warmed up all year. With no true #1 receiver, the offense can struggle to create explosive plays in the passing game. Cincinnati's defense has fallen off a cliff this year, even while bringing in help in the secondary. The Chargers' physical brand will challenge the Bengals, who hope the offense can score some points. If this is a slog of a game, it favors the Chargers, who don't mind fighting in a phone booth.

Monday Night Football

Texans vs. Cowboys

Houston is the only NFL team with a winning record but a negative point differential. The offense has been sluggish since Nico Collins was injured and appears to be a shell of its former self. Defensively, the Texans are one of the best units in the NFL and match up well with Dallas. Head Coach DeMeco Ryans wants to play Nickel most of the game, but the Cowboys lack any punch in the run game. Dak Prescott is out, too, which should allow the Texans to get after the Dallas O-line.

Dallas overall has struggled on both sides of the ball. Rico Dowdle is now the featured back, and there seems to be a concerted effort to rebuild the run game and establish some kind of stability for the Cooper Rush (or Trey Lance if he ever gets to play). There is an apparent mismatch for the Cowboys when the pass and the run game must carry the team this week. If Dallas' defense can play well and limit the Texans, there is a chance to keep this close and have the potential to win late in the game. So far, Dallas is 0-4 at home with a five-game losing streak dating back to last year.

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