NFL Week 10 Weekend Slate Preview

Wake up to football in Munich, Germany!

Giants vs. Panthers

This game isn't exciting, but it's football, and you can drink your coffee while watching. Ironically, to expand the brand in Europe, the NFL brought two of the worst teams into the heart of the continent. New York has some talent, and their defense can produce fireworks. The Giants are tied for first in total sacks, with the Broncos at 31. But that is where the positivity ends. New York is probably the better team, and look for them to pound the rock against the worst defense in football and attempt to feed rookie Malik Nabers, who appears to be a bonafide star (he is an LSU receiver). If you are looking for a mismatch, it's in the ground game. If Carolina can get consistent quarterback play, anything is possible; the problem is that it hasn't been great all year.

Broncos vs. Chiefs

When Denver has the ball:

The Chiefs have quickly become a defensive football team. DC Steve Spagnuolo perfectly fits Head Coach Andy Reid's culture and brings a unique defensive style each week. The Chiefs are fourth in Defensive DVOA and second in that metric against the run. Denver's Sean Payton wants to run the ball to help his rookie quarterback, but that looks difficult this week. There have been some injuries in the KC secondary, and Bo Nix will need to target Courtland Sutton. One thing the Broncos have going for them is Pressure Rate, where their O-line ranks first in the NFL. Look for Denver to go 'big with multiple TE formations and a FB, attempting to shorten the game and help their young quarterback.

When Kansas City has the ball:

Denver struggled to get stops last week against a Ravens offense that is tops in the league. Adding Deandre Hopkins should help expand the offense, which has been stagnant for most of the year yet still ranks in the top ten in DVOA. Denver wants to play man coverage, but injuries at Safety and a rookie CB have sometimes been an issue. The Chiefs feast on man and are #1 in Success Rate against the Cover 1. Pressure will be critical for the Broncos, and their D-line is tops in the league at creating it. That being said, Mahomes is at the top of the league against the blitz. If Denver can handle the run game and put the Chiefs in predictable passing situations, they may be able to keep this one within striking distance.

49ers vs. Buccaneers

When San Francisco has the ball:

The Buccaneers defense has regressed this season in part due to injuries. For Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan, there is a blueprint for attacking this defense. Inversely, the Tampa scheme is similar to the Vikings, who were able to beat the 49ers earlier in the game. The major flaw in the Tampa defense is in coverage. For the most part, Todd Bowles wants to play a mix two-high coverages and fire zones behind his pressures. Only the Vikings and Denver, featuring a five-man front on most downs, blitz more than Tampa Bay. Bowles must pressure the 49ers, who hold the #2 success rate on non-blitzed downs. The real advantage is in the passing game, so look for Purdy to hit the over in passing. Kittle should also have a big day. Still, as we saw against the Chiefs last week, Tampa can do enough damage to keep things close.

When Tampa Bay has the ball:

The one element the Buccaneers have added to their offense this year is a running game. Last week, against the Chiefs, who hold one of the best run defenses in the league, Baker Mayfield had to throw to keep the Bucs in the game. His TEs, especially Cade Otten, were huge targets. San Fransisco is a much better matchup. Though the 49ers defense is ranked fourth in DVOA, it can give up yards on the ground. The secondary has played well all year, and the Buccaneers are still sorting out their receiving corp with Evans and Godwin out. It could be a long night if Tampa can't establish a run game. The RBs and TEs will need big days again to pull off the upset as home dogs.

Steelers vs. Commanders

When Pittsburgh has the ball:

Mike Tomlin stood by his decision to play Russell Wilson over Justin Fields, and so far, it appears to be the right one. Wilson is one of the best deep-shot passers in the NFL, and with the addition of the Jets' Mike Williams, the Steelers now have two Go-ball receivers. George Pickens and Williams can help transition the Steeler's offense into a full-fledged Wilson unit, a powerful run game fueled by deep shots outside. Washington made a move to get the Saints Marshon Lattimore. The move puts Mike Sainristil back inside to his natural position as Nickel and makes the secondary more conducive to man coverage, a favorite of Quinn's. Lattimore is questionable with a hamstring injury, but if he plays, he will give a huge boost to the secondary. Still, the Steelers must prove the system works against a foe ascending in the middle part of the season.

When Washington has the ball:

The Commanders' offense had been humming all year, but the unit has slowed down a bit in the past two weeks against the Bears and Giants. Pittsburgh has a top-ten defense and added beef up front. Jayden Daniels can use his legs to get out of trouble, but he will have to contend against one of the best fronts in the league. One way to attack the Steelers is out of Empty, which the Commanders are #3 in success rate when utilizing that formation. The Steelers, on the other hand, are 31st in success rate against Empty formations. With Daniels' legs and his ability to evade pressure, there should be room for him to hit receivers. Look for the Commanders to spread the Pittsburgh defense out and attack the space within their zone-heavy scheme.

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Sunday Night Football

Lions vs. Texans

When Detroit has the ball:

The battle in Houston will be strength on strength. The Lions' offense is arguably the best in the NFL and is humming right now. On the other side is Houston, which has one of the best defensive units in the league. Head Coach DeMeco Ryans has the front feasting on opponent O-lines and currently sits #1 in pressure rate. The Lions must establish their run game early to ensure the Texans' D-line isn't pinning its ears back. Goff has been magnificent all year but is not immune to pressure.

When Houston has the ball:

The jury is still out on CJ Stroud, but it is hard to get a true evaluation when the O-line is 29th in pressure rate. The Lions aren't consistent at getting pressure, so they made a move for the Browns' Za-Darius Smith. He will be tasked with Aidan Hutchinson's role as a pressure cooker for quarterbacks. One element that is missing entirely from Houston's scheme is a run game. The Lions are one of the best at stopping the run, and if the Texans can't establish a ground game, it will be hard for Stroud to breathe as the Lions play man coverage and blitz him. Nico Collins makes it go in this offense because it loosens the box. Without him in the lineup, the Texans have struggled all year.

Monday Night Football

Dolphins vs. Rams

When Miami has the ball:

Tua is back with a bit more consistency from the offense. The Dolphins will have to contend with a young and hungry Rams defense that is growing in confidence as the season progresses. LA sometimes struggles against the run, and if you've noticed, a common theme this year has been offenses leaning into their run games. Miami has sometimes struggled with pressure through Mike McDaniels tenure, and the Rams can produce plenty of it when they know it is a passing down. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle should be a mismatch against the Rams' secondary, and Tua should be able to push the ball downfield as long as Miami stays ahead of the chains. 3rd Downs will most likely decide this game. The Dolphins are 29th in success rate when the distance is 6-9 yards; the Rams are ranked #3.

When LA has the ball:

Like in most of their matchups, the Rams will have an advantage in the passing game. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup, the Rams look like a completely different team. Slowly, the Rams are rising up the DVOA rankings and can be a top-ten offense. Many, including myself, felt the Dolphins' defense would play much better than their current 27th DVOA ranking. There is star power on the roster, and the secondary has the ability to hold up against the Rams. There isn't much in the ground game for the Rams that would allow them to gain stability on early downs. If the Dolphins consistently get the Rams into long-yardage situations, they will pressure Stafford. These are two evenly matched offenses, with concerns within their defensive units. This game should be fun to watch and one that will be close (the line is -1).

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As we dive in, we look forward to the conversation, debate, and your feedback. Hit us up at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.