NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Preview: Bengals vs Ravens

The Week 5 matchup between these two teams had plenty of fireworks. Joe Burrow threw for five TDs and almost 400 yards through the air. Lamar answered with a four-TD game of his own, throwing for 348 yards. Ja'Marr Chase had nearly 200 yards receiving, while Derek Henry almost eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground. It was an offensive explosion, and this rematch looks similar.

Typically, the Bengals are slowly climbing out of their early-season hole. Cincinnati is coming into their second matchup with the Ravens having won four of their last six after an abysmal 0-3 start. Two of those early season losses were to the Chiefs (undefeated) and the Commanders (who might win their division). Still, the Bengals feel like they are ascending at the right time and can catch the Ravens and Steelers at the top of the division.

Baltimore is a conundrum. At times, they appear as though they are the best team in the NFL, with an offense that looks unstoppable. Then, they will drop a game to the Browns in inexplicable fashion. Similar to the Bengals, Baltimore got off to a slow start, losing to the Chiefs and Raiders in back-to-back weeks. Lamar & Co. reeled off five wins in a row, then dropped a game to the Browns. At 6-3, they sit a half-game behind their rival Steelers.

In the previous matchup, neither team was able to stop the other. Two Justin Tucker FGs, one with 1:35 left to send the game to overtime and the final one to win it, pushed Baltimore into the win column. The thorn in the side for both teams has been the defense.

The Bengals struggled early with injuries and have yet to find a run game, but they look to be humming, at least offensively, heading into the middle part of the schedule. Similarly, the Ravens' defense has faltered, primarily in the backend, where they had some attrition. Offensively, Baltimore leads the NFL in DVOA but is ranked 19th on defense. Cincinnati is in a similar boat, with a top-ten offense anchored by a defense in the lower third of the league. ---

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When Cincinnati has the ball:

One of the Bengals' main issues is that they cannot consistently run the ball. Zach Moss's injury hasn't helped, and it appears he won't be back until January. A trade for the Bears' Khalil Herbert only gives them depth; this isn't an instant boost. Chase Browns will carry much of the load but has struggled in the passing game. Still, the Bengals are finding ways to stay ahead of the chains, as they are fifth in 3rd Down average yards to go (6.3).

Cincinnati is in the top ten in almost every passing advanced metric. Inversely, passing defense is something the Baltimore defense has struggled with all year. The Bengals are fourth in passing success rate, while Baltimore is 26th and struggles with outside throws (29th). Defensive coordinator Zach Orr will most likely stay away from man coverage as the Bengals feast on it (5th in success), and the Ravens struggle in it (30th). Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should have big days outside, but if the Bengals get too one-sided, the Ravens front line can pin their ears back.

When the Bengals try to run the ball, they will do so with one of the best-run defenses in the NFL. To this point in the season, the Ravens are #1 in explosive run rate. The Bengals will need to establish some semblance of a run game to keep the Ravens from flooding the backend with coverage defenders. Regardless, this has been the model for success in Cincinnati, and Joe Burrow, when kept clean, can deliver.

Image: Ulysses Muñoz/The Baltimore Banner

When Baltimore has the ball:

The Ravens' offense is a total mismatch for most teams, which will be the case on Thursday against the Bengals. Baltimore is #1 in yards/game, rushing/game, and first Downs/game. The Bengals struggle to stop most teams defensively.

The addition of Derek Henry has amplified the entire offense. Teams that want to stack the box must contend with Lamar's legs and are now isolated outside with Zay Flowers, who has over 600 yards to start the season. The Ravens' offense constantly pulls in all directions, whether run or pass.

The Bengals brought in help in the secondary this offseason, but it has not panned out. Even with DE Trey Hendrickson leading the league in sacks (11), Cincy is 25th in pressure rate productivity (PRP). There are some signs of life, though, in the Bengals camp. Cincinnati has climbed up to ninth in dropback success rate. Lamar will need to play a clean game and score TDs. The Bengals are most likely to make this a high-scoring affair. For the most part, the Ravens don't turn the ball over.

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