NFL Week 1 Takes
Week One of the NFL season is officially in the books, and, well…we can barely breath here at Field Vision. Why? We recommended 20 bets to our loyal following. We hit 18 of them. Yes, you heard that correctly. 18! 90%. That’s basically statistically impossible. Let us quickly recap:
Hit 18 of 20 Best Bets, good for 90%
If you bet all of those best bets from Thursday-Monday, your return was 513%
Matchup Index was correct 63% of the time on “non-neutral” Matchups across the entire NFL.
Correctly predicted the Over/Under on 63% of the game (10 of 16)
18 out of 20 in the first week of the NFL season just does not happen. Let me repeat. It. Does. Not. Happen. As we’ve already said, either we are on the heater of a lifetime, or the model works. We’re pretty sure it’s the latter. Some proof? Just a few of the props the model (and us) recommended:
Lamar Jackson OVER 49.5 rushing yards (16 Carries for 122 yards)
Mark Andrews UNDER 49.5 receiving yards (2 targets for 14 yards)
Joe Burrow UNDER 247.5 passing yards (164 yards)
Josh Reynolds OVER 29 receiving yards (5 catches for 45 yards)
Cooper Kupp OVER 67.5 receiving yards (14 catches for 110 yards)
Matthew Stafford OVER 271.5 passing yards (317 yards)
Brandon Aiyuk UNDER 52 receiving yards (2 catches for 28 yards)
To get 18 out of 20 right you have to win some close ones. Many of them we’re not close, however, and the hypothesis was correct from kick-off. The model works. And this is a good time to remind people that it works (and our bets are hitting) because they are based on a massive amount of rich football data (about players, teams, tendencies, schemes) and combined with extremely deep football context and strategy.
Either we are on the heater of a lifetime, or the model works.
Okay, that's enough of tooting our own horn. What happened on the football field was awesome, per usual. The NFL always delivers – although, we could have stood to end on the Lions/Rams overtime thriller vs. the 49ers/Jets stinker – but we’re not here to complain. Here are our key takeaways from the Week 1 action:
The best are still the best: Sure, we have some darlings (Hi Texans) and some who shredded bad teams (Bucs, Saints, Chargers, Vikings), but the best teams in the NFL still appear to be the best teams. The Chiefs, Niners, Lions, Ravens we’re the last four teams we saw on the field last year, and they all looked the part in Week 1. The Chiefs offense is better, which should be scary to the rest of the NFL. The Ravens struggled slightly, if you can consider losing to the two-time defending champion by a toe at home struggling – but it’s clear that Lamar still very much owns his cape, and intends to use it as long as he stays healthy this year. The Niners dismantled an imposter Jets team, and the Lions outdueled a game Rams squad in Overtime by getting back to what they do best – running the ball down the throat of the defense in overtime. Also, the emergence of Jameson Williams is important, and will only make this offense more electric. Sure, there will be contenders. But I’m betting these 4 will be there til the end. Again.
Rookies Struggle Across the Board: The NFL content cycle is SO insane these days, that by the time we’ve hit the season we’ve talked about these rookies for 7 months through the draft, OTAs and training camps. The sheer boredom of not having any ACTUAL football to talk about means we work ourselves into a frenzy about the leagues rookies. And then week 1 comes. And we remember that they are rookies, the rest of the NFL are season, trained, wiley veterans, and the Rooks have some growing up to do. Caleb Williams (14-29, 63 yards) looked mostly lost against the Titans of all teams. Bo Nix threw 42 times for 138 yards. That 3.3 yards for per passing attempt! Turns out the way he played for 6 YEARS in college might not have been a fluke. Jayden Daniels was fine, but is on a bad team and lost to the Bucs & Baker Mayfield by 17, and it didn’t feel that close. And the majority of the “generational” young receivers mightily struggled. Marvin Harrison had 1 catch for 4 yards. Malik Nabers had 5 for 66, although most of it was after the Vikings had completely put the hapless, Daniel Jones led Giants to bed. Rome Odunze, 1 for 11. There we’re two rookie WR bright spots. Brian Thomas went 4 for 47 with a TD, and looks like he could be something special long-term in Jacksonville. And Xavier Worthy is, well, fast. Very fast. Like, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes just got a new toy and want to show it off fast. And that’s not great news for the rest of the league.
A reminder that coaches want to win: Even if fans are always planning for the future, this Week 1 was a reminder that coaches want to win NOW. Their job depends on it. Example A? Jerod Mayo in New England. Everyone knew New England was going to be terrible. Everyone wanted Mayo to start Drake Maye and give him a chance to develop in what was sure to be a throw away season. Mayo and his team had other plans. What Mayo knows is that Brissett gives him the best chance to win, and he’s got 53 guys in his locker that seem refreshed and rejuvenated with a new head coach in charge. The same can be said in New Orleans. For weeks now we’ve heard about Spencer Rattler as the second coming of…I don’t really know who. But Dennis Allen, Derek Carr and the Saints locker room had other plans. They dismantled the Panthers, and announced to the league that they’re ready to compete in 2024. Fans are always planning for the future, but coaches and their players, both whom are fighting for their livelihoods, want to win now.
It’s a Quarterback league, and there are several VERY bad QBs: Week 1 reminded us that to win in the NFL, you have to have a good quarterback. Period. And it also reminded us that there are several QBs across the league that aren’t even close, and their teams should probably start planning for the future now. Daniel Jones was terrible. I mean, terrible. Deshaun Watson hasn’t been a good QB since 2020, and he certainily didn’t look like he’s going to turn it around this year. Bryce Young aint it. I feel bad for the Panthers (and for him to be honest), but he’s just not. And it’s going to be a rough season watching him try. And then there’s everyone on the Raiders.
The Bengals: No pithy title here. We’ve watched the Bengals start slow for 3 straight years now, and they did it again on Sunday, after looking ineffective and uninspired at home against a game Patriots team. Yes, they’ve seemed to turn it around and find their stride mid-season the last couple of years, but this act is getting old. Ja’Marr Chase wants to be paid more than Justin Jefferson, and he absolutely SHOULD NOT be. Our recommendation to Chase – just play and prove it on the field, like Jefferson does every week. And while most of the league like to put Joe Burrow in a league with Mahomes and Allen, without his 1 AFC championship game win against the Chiefs (where Mahomes had an out of body experience…in a bad way) he’s distinctly average (like our model says he is). Sure, the Bengals may turn it around again. But it looks to us like that infrastructure is fraying at the seams.
I think that’s all for now. What an incredible Week 1, and as luck would have it, we’re only 2 days aways from the start of Week 2! Once it’s started, Football season is relentless, and we love it.
As always, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.
