NFL Championship Round Previews

Bills vs. Chiefs

When Buffalo has the ball:

The Bills don't give up the ball, and Josh Allen doesn't take sacks. Those two factors will be critical to the Bills' success on Sunday. The Chiefs aren't high in rankings for those two metrics, but Kansas City's efficient offense can punish any team that turns the ball over and stalls out a drive because of a sack. Steve Spagnuolo has built a defense that is bend-don't-break in fashion. Spags applies pressure in multiple ways, from coverage disguise to six-man blitzes. Each week is a curated list of concepts to make an offense left-handed.

With All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie moving outside, the Chiefs have struggled to cover the Slot receiver throughout the year. The Bills have an elite slot in Khalil Skakir, an underrated YAC machine. Buffalo will need to use his unique ability to take on the Chiefs. The Bills must mix up their looks on the ground to keep the Chiefs off their scent. A few areas where the Chiefs struggle efficiency-wise are against 12 personnel and outside the tackles. Those are prime concepts for the Bills to run. When in 11 pers., both teams are going strength on strength, so it will be critical to have a game plan that can be multiple, using formations, motions, and play calls to keep the Chiefs guessing. Ultimately, all the pressure sits on Allen, who needs a clean game to keep the Chiefs offense at bay and on the sideline.

When Kansas City has the ball:

The Bills' defense is built similarly to the Chiefs' but more athletic at the D-line position. Buffalo has had to contend with the Bengals and Chiefs for AFC supremacy. The Ravens were a mismatch with their power run game, but the Bills survived and now face the Chiefs. Buffalo, too, is a bend-don't-break system that gives up a lot of first downs, primarily through the air due to their zone coverages. Though they have two of the best zone CBs in the game, their intermediate defense has often been hurt or is lacking in production. The trio of Taylor Rapp (if healthy), Demar Hamlin, and rookie Cole Bishop will need to bring their A-game to stifle the Chiefs' offense.

Travis Kelce is a production monster, and Patrick Mahomes is beginning to step on the toes of Tom Brady for the greatest of all time. The Chiefs will attack the Safety position and Bills' coverages with their Hall of Fame duo. The offense is near the bottom in explosives, but they are an efficient machine, with Mahomes using his pin-point accuracy and mobility to target space. On the ground, the Bills defense is a feast-or-famine system. Buffalo is near the bottom in explosives allowed but at the top in stuff rate. In most cases, making a team one-dimensional would signal that a defense will win the game, but it is a different story against the Chiefs, who view their short passing attack as an extension of the run game.

The key for Buffalo is to get stops and force the Chiefs into kicking field goals. Containing Mahomes will be paramount, and the Bills' active front can do that. Finally, the safety position will have to play at an elite level, and if not, hopefully, Allen and Co., on the other side, will score TDs.

Commanders vs. Eagles

When Washington has the ball:

Jayden Daniels's historic run as a rookie quarterback has led him to a third match-up against the Eagles and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. One of the main issues will focus on the Eagles' ability to pressure Daniels. The Commanders are in the lower third of the sack rate, and though the Eagles are above average, they will need to pressure the young quarterback. Daniels has illustrated his ability to be accurate when not pressured. Though he can run (and will), he wants to push the ball down the field first.

The Eagles' secondary is talented, and though they don't play man at a high rate, Fangio may use that as a change-up. The Commanders took advantage of the Lions man-centric scheme in the last round, but Fangio has more tools in the coverage toolbox. Fangio's whole style of play is to compress the field and force the quarterback to check the ball down or throw it into tight areas.

Kliff Kingsbury comes from the Air Raid tree, but his pairing with Anthony Lynn has given him what he has always been lacking: a real run game. The Eagles sometimes struggle in coverage versus condensed formations but struggle in the run game when they have to play with a lightbox. Like Buffalo, playing opposites when calling plays might be the way to go in the Championship round: spread to run, condense to pass.

When Philadelphia has the ball:

Each week of the playoffs is entirely different, as each team plays them like one-off games that they win or go home. ' Last week, Jalen Hurts only threw 128 yards through the air but was sacked seven times. The Eagles and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore are content with handing the ball off to Saquon Barkley behind one of the best lines in football. Against a high-powered offense in Washington, Hurts will likely have to produce in the passing game to win.

The Commanders' secondary has grown throughout the year; the defense has gotten tremendously better as the season has dragged on. One flaw is in explosive plays, regardless of run or pass. Washington struggles with man coverage and in the intermediate. Both the Commanders' linebackers are not great at defending the pass. Wagner has transitioned into an old-school 'box' linebacker, and Frankie Luvu is a hybrid pass-rush specialist. That doesn't bode well against teams that can pass. This is why Hurts has to be able to throw the ball and get it to AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, and DeVonta Smith.

The Eagles' ability to have explosives in the run game should allow Hurts to pass the ball. If he can keep a clean sheet and not turn the ball over, they should be able to control the game. Plus, when the Commanders do run man coverage, punish them with big chunk plays.

Follow Cody Alexander at MatchQuarters.com, Twitter/X, Instagram, or TikTok.

As we dive in, we look forward to the conversation, debate, and your feedback. Hit us up at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.