The AFC and NFC West free agency outlook

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Cody Alexander
Cody Alexander

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs - 15-2* (Lost Super Bowl)

Strongest Units (Rank/Average Rating):

  1. Tight Ends - 3rd / 76.2

  2. Cornerbacks - 9th / 81.1

  3. Quarterback - 11th / 84.2

Weakest Units:

  1. Safeties - 26th / 70.7

  2. Running Backs - 27th / 67.2

  3. Wide Receivers - 31st / 63.6

Top Free Agents:

1) DeAndre Hopkins/WR - Hopkins is not in his prime, and the Chiefs need to get explosive in that position. He would always be a stop-gap, and having him on a one-year deal was the best option for KC. Hopkins finished as the 42nd-ranked WR (72.1) in Threat and will most likely hit free agency.

2) Justin Reid/Saf - Reid has been a stalwart for the Kansas City defense and runs the backend for DC Spagnuolo like a quarterback. He isn't elite, coming in as the 47th-best Safety in Havoc, but he does too much for the Chiefs to let him walk. It would be a no-brainer if KC could get him on a team-friendly deal.

3) Charles Omenihu/ED - Only played ~20% of the snaps with little production. It's hard to keep him around at $8 million.

4)Marquis Brown/WR - Brown was supposed to be the deep-threat answer at WR but was never able to get off the ground until late in the season. He is a 28-year-old receiver with a tag of $7 million. If the Chiefs feel he still has some gas in the tank and they can get that number lower (and someone doesn't pay him), there is a chance he can come back on a 'prove it' deal. Signed: 1-year and up to $11 million

5) DJ Humphries/OT - Kansas City needs help and is bad at Tackle. Humphreys had an interesting year, as he was benched at one point in the playoffs. He's a veteran and a former first-round draft pick, which means someone might take a waiver on him. If the Chiefs have to compete for his services, they probably let him walk.

5) Joshua Uche/ED - Uche was supposed to add depth at the Edge spot in Kansas City. He had a pressure percentage equal to Karlaftis's, but he only played 22% of the defensive snaps and finished with a Havoc Rating of 61.

*Signed LB Nick Bolton to a 3-year $45 million deal

Potential Targets:

  1. Cam Robinson/OT (Vikings)

  2. Ronnie Staley/OT (Ravens)

  3. Darrell Taylor/ED (Bears)

Los Angeles Chargers - 11-6*

Strongest Units (Rank/Average Rating):

  1. Quarterback - 3rd / 90.1

  2. Safeties - 10th / 77

  3. Wide Receivers - 13th / 70.4 (Ladd McConkey carrying this unit!)

Weakest Units:

  1. Interior Defensive Line - 26th / 66.6

  2. Cornerbacks - 27th / 76.9

  3. Tight Ends - 29th / 63.5

Top Free Agents:

1) Khalil Mack/ED - Mack will want to cash in again and was ranked the 23rd-best Edge last year (77.6). The Chargers have the space, but do they want to bring back 34-year-old Edge at a steep price? I'd argue the answer is no. Joey Bosa was also cut. The Chargers will be looking to reshape their entire defensive line.

2) Morgan Fox/iDL - Fox is an average DT and fits the hybrid scheme DC Jesse Minter wants to run. He played over 50% of the snaps in LA but only carries a 66 Havoc Rating. The Chargers desperately need to shore up the inside of the defense if they are going to play with lighter packages. Fox is a good 'quick' tackle who can pass rush; the question is, will the Chargers want a 'special' player at his price point? He currently sits right above $3 million, so there is a world where he comes back to the Chargers.

3) Kristian Fulton/CB - Fulton had a decent year and was the 73rd-ranked CB in Havoc (77.7). At over $3 million, the Chargers could get him back on the cheap if another team doesn't want his services. As long as his number stays relatively low, I see him returning for another year. He's 27 and played almost 70% of the snaps this year for Minter. The Chargers need quality depth, and he brings that.

Potential Targets:

  1. Josh Sweat/ED (Eagles)

  2. Austin Hooper/TE (Patriots)

  3. BJ Hill/iDL (Bengals)

  4. Drew Dalmon/C (Falcons)

  5. Darius Slayton/WR (Giants)

Denver Broncos - 10-7*

Strongest Units (Rank/Average Rating):

  1. Interior D-Line - 2nd / 76.4

  2. Safeties - 8th / 77.8

  3. Quarterback - 13th / 83.3

Weakest Units:

  1. Linebackers - 23rd / 76.8

  2. Tight Ends - 30th / 61.5

  3. Running Backs - 31st / 64.3

Top Free Agents:

1) DJ Jones/iDL - Jones played 37% of the snaps this year on a $10 million contract. He was ranked the 53rd DT in Havoc this year. It will most likely be at a discounted rate for Denver to bring him back. They will let him hit the market where he will be highly sought after.

2) Cody Barton/LB - Barton was on a one-year deal for only $2.5 million. If the Broncos can get him back around that price, I don't see him coming back if Denver can find a better replacement. He was the 45th-best LB in Havoc last year and would be partnered with the injured Alex Singleton, who was the 33rd-best LB in Havoc last season (81.5). Linebackers are returning en vogue and I'd assume the Broncos want to upgrade.

3) Javonte Williams/RB - He's never been the same since his knee injury and lacks the production for the Broncos to bring him back.

Potential Targets:

  1. Chris Godwin/WR (Buccaneers)

  2. Zach Ertz/TE (Commanders)

  3. Asante Samuel Jr./CB (Chargers)

  4. Azeez Ojulari/ED (Giants)

  5. Isaiah Simmons/LB (Giants)

Las Vegas Raiders - 4-13

Strongest Units (Rank/Average Rating):

  1. Tight Ends - 2nd / 77.2

  2. Edges - 4th / 74.3

  3. Interior D-Line - 6th / 74.7

Weakest Units:

  1. Cornerbacks - 21st / 77.7

  2. Running Backs - 30th / 64.4

  3. Quarterbacks - 31st / 71.9

Top Free Agents:

1) Tre'von Moehrig/Saf - Moehrig has quietly become one of the best Safeties in the NFL. Last season, he finished with an 82 Havoc Rating, putting him as the 20th-best Safety. He was the 27th-best Safety in 2023. The Raiders will pay and keep him with rising star Isaiah Pola-Mao, whom they already extended.

2) Marcus Epps/Saf - Pola-Mao resigned and played most of the snaps last year. With Moehrig likely re-signing as well, Epps is the odd man out. He only played in ~16% of the Raiders snaps.

3) Robert Spillane/LB - Spillbane has been the backbone of the Raiders defense since DC Patrick Graham arrived. Pete Carroll opted to keep Graham, which means he will likely want to keep his defensive quarterback. Spillane was the 19th-ranked LB in Havoc this season (84.8).

Potential Targets:

  1. Sam Darnold/QB (Vikings) Traded for the Seahawks Geno Smith

  2. BJ Hill/DT (Bengals)

  3. Aaron Jones/RB (Vikings)

  4. Charvarious Ward/CB (49ers)

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams - 10-7*

Strongest Units (Rank/Average Rating):

  1. Edges - 6th / 73.8

  2. Running Backs - 8th / 76.2

  3. Interior D-line - 8th / 73.3

Weakest Units:

  1. Linebackers - 18th / 79.1

  2. Cornerbacks - 30th / 75.8

  3. Tight Ends - 31st / 60.9

Top Free Agents:

1) Demarcus Robinson/WR - Though not a significant part of the offense, Robinson was a workhorse for the Rams, and with Kupp out the door, losing depth at the position is not ideal. Robinson ended the year as the 76th-best WR in Threat (66.2) but has a pathway to return as he knows the system. *Signed Devante Adams to 2-year $46 million

2) Christian Rozeboom/LB - The Rams don't prioritize the linebacker position, so he is likely gone if they have to compete with Rozeboom on the open market. If that happens, look for the Rams to draft his replacement. Rozeboom was the 32nd-best LB in Havoc last year (81.1), so LA should make a decent run at keeping him in-house.

3) Michael Hoecht/DL - Signing Hoecht may be the most important defensive signing this offseason. He is a utility player who can play anything from Edge to Nose. Hoecht truly unlocks DC Mike Shula's ability to enhance the skills of his young D-line. LA shouldn't have to break the bank for his services, either. The hybrid D-lineman finished with a Havoc Rating of 65.3 (111th), but don't sleep on his importance, much like Robinson on offense.

4) Bobby Brown/iDL - Brown, like Hoecht, does the dirty work, so star iDL Kobie Turner can fully utilize his skills. Brown is a true Nose, and like Rozeboom, the Rams won't overpay him. He was the 86th-best DT in Havoc (64.9). LA also needs to get better in the run game and an upgrade at Nose might be the answer here.

Potential Targets:

  1. Charvarious Ward/CB (49ers)

  2. DJ Reed/CB (Jets)

  3. Tommy Tremble/TE (Panthers)

  4. Milton Williams/DL (Eagles)

Seattle Seahawks - 10-7

Strongest Units (Rank/Average Rating):

  1. Interior D-Line - 1st / 79

  2. Cornerbacks - 4th / 82.9

  3. Quarterback - 5th / 88.5

Weakest Units:

  1. Running Backs - 15th / 72.3

  2. Edges - 27th / 67.6

  3. Tight Ends - 27th / 63.9

Top Free Agents:

1) Ernest Jones/LB - Jones was a game-changer once he stepped on the field for the Seahawks. He finished the year the 20th-ranked LB in Havoc (84.5) and should only get better under Head Coach Mike Macdonald. Seattle must sign him.

*Signed 3-year $33 million extension

2) iDLs Jarran Reed, Dre'Mont Jones, Jonathan Hankins - A log-jam in Seattle is next to the #1 DT Leonard Williams (93.5). Jones is the youngest at 28, but the Seahawks might go for a discount with the older Reed and Hankins. Reed was a top-20 DT last year in Havoc (77.2). Seattle also has rookie Byron Murphy, a top-60 iDL last year (69.8), and will only get better. I guess that Reed will come back on a short-term deal.

Potential Targets:

  1. Sam Darnold/QB (Vikings)

  2. Byron Murphy/CB-Ni (Vikings)

  3. Sebastian Joseph-Day/iDL (Chargers)

  4. Tyler Conklin/TE (Jets)

  5. Baron Browning/ED (Cardinals)

Arizona Cardinals - 8-9

Strongest Units (Rank/Average Rating):

  1. Safeties - 3rd / 82.9

  2. Tight Ends - 4th / 75.5

  3. Quarterback - 9th / 85.8

Weakest Units:

  1. Linebackers - 28th / 74.9

  2. Edges - 31st / 66.6

  3. Interior D-line - 31st / 65.4

Top Free Agents:

1) Evan Brown/C - Without a premium Center hitting the market, it would be in the best interest of the Cardinals to resign their starting Center.

2) Kyzir White/LB - The Cardinals need a 'box' LB to play beside hybrid Mack Wilson Sr. White is a suitable starter, ranking 57th in Havoc Ratings at the position (76.6). If they become available, Zach Baun or Ernest Jones would be a dream, but Arizona will have to compete with almost every team in an open market. White is a safe choice and most likely will return.

Potential Targets:

  1. Josh Sweat/ED (Eagles)

  2. Azeez Ojulari/ED (Giants)

  3. Mekhi Becton/OT (Eagles)

San Fransisco 49ers - 6-11

Strongest Units (Rank/Average Rating):

  1. Tight Ends - 1st / 80.5

  2. Edges - 2nd / 74.8

  3. Quarterback - 6th / 88.1

Weakest Units:

  1. Safeties - 12th / 75.7

  2. Linebackers - 20th / 78

  3. Interior D-Line - 32nd / 64.7

Top Free Agents:

1) Charvarious Ward/CB - Ward wants to leave the Bay Area, and the 49ers want to shed cap space. Mutually parting ways is trending up.

2) Dre Greenlaw/LB - At one point, Greenlaw was one of the top LBs in the league. He's struggled to play since tearing his Achilles. This is another example of the 49ers wanting to shed money from their cap.

3) Talanoa Hufanga/Saf - The young Safety will likely hit the open market. He was injured for most of last season and will have an asking price the 49ers won't want to match.

4) Aaron Banks/OL - Banks is another cap casualty in an offseason that looks like the 49ers want to reset their cap.

Potential Targets:

  1. Javon Holland/S (Dolphins)

  2. Asante Samuel Jr./CB (Chargers)

  3. Davante Adams/WR (Jets)

  4. Dre'Mont Jones/DL (Seahawks)

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As we dive in, we look forward to the conversation, debate, and your feedback. Hit us up at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.

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