AFC and NFC South Free Agency Outlook
AFC South
Houston Texans - 10-7*
Strongest Units (Rank/Average Rating):
Cornerback - 1st / 90.2
Linebacker - 8th / 81.9
Quarterback - 15th / 83.1
Weakest Units:
Tight Ends - 20th / 65.4
Interior Defensive Line - 23rd / 67.8
Running Backs - 24th / 68.3
Top Free Agents:
1) Stephon Diggs/WR - Diggs finished the season as the 18th-ranked WR in Field Vision's Threat Ratings (79.1) and still holds some juice left in the tank. If the Texans can get him at the right price, they should bring him back. Alongside Nico Collins (WR6/83.6) and Tank Dell (WR39/72.9), Diggs would still make the Texans receiving corps one of the best in the league. With a young Quarterback trying to bounce back in year three, bringing back Diggs on a team-friendly deal makes sense.
2) Folorunso Fatukasi/DT - Fatukasi is a space-eater in the Texans' four-down defense. There is an emphasis on creating one-on-ones outside for the Texans' two star Edges, Will Anderson Jr. (DE12/81.7) and Danielle Hunter (DE13/81.5). Though a starter for most of the season, he did share reps with Mario Edwards, who is also a free agent. Fatukasi ended the season as the 44th ranked Defensive Tackle with a Havoc Rating of 70.9. Several free agent iDLs are about to hit the market, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Fatukasi hit free agency but ultimately return to Houston.
3) Mario Edwards/DT - Edwards is in a similar situation as Fatukasi and finished the season with a Havoc Rating of 67. Both are in their 30s and relatively cheap, but if the Texans were going to go with one, it would probably be Fatukasi since Edwards is probably a better fit in a 3-4 as a DE or 'Big 5.'
Potential Targets:
Milton Williams/iDL (Eagles)
Will Fries/OG (Colts)
Javonte Williams/RB (Broncos)
Trade: Cooper Kupp/WR (Rams) - Trade if Diggs walks
Indianapolis Colts - 8-9
Strongest Units:
Safeties - 2nd / 85.8
Cornerbacks - 2nd / 85.1
Linebackers - 9th / 81.8
Weakest Units:
Edges - 18th - 71.2
Wide Receivers - 18th - 69.2
Tight Ends - 32nd - 60.4
Top Free Agents:
1) EJ Speed/LB - Zaire Franklin gets most of the attention in Indy, and rightfully so; he finished 5th in Field Vision's Havoc Ratings (89.9). Speed has been a good complement and is an adequate partner alongside Franklin. Speed finished as the 54th-best LB last season and is familiar with playing heavy doses of Cover 3, which he will play under Matt Eberflus. Indy should be able to sign him without sacrificing much cap space.
2) Julian Blackmon/Saf - One of the best-kept secrets in football is the defensive talent in Indy. If looking at Havoc Ratings, the Colts have one of the best individual rosters in the NFL but have underperformed under former DC Gus Bradley. Like Speed, Blackmon gets overlooked by his counterpart and is used to playing in a Cover 3-dominant scheme. Nick Cross finished 4th in Havoc for Safeties (91.5), and Blackmon complements his skill set. Blackmon played over 93% of the snaps last year, so I see the Colts bringing him back, especially with his asking price well under $10 million.
3) Ryan Kelly/C - Kelly is 32 years old and exiting a contract with a cap hit of over $12 million. He will probably ask for a similar deal, and O-linemen tend to play well until they can't. Kelly is one of the league's better Centers, and the Colts should sign him regardless of age.
4) Will Fries/OG - Fries is becoming one of the better Guards in the NFL at only 27. Indianapolis has been able to get him on the cheap but will need to start paying him. Continuity at the O-line position is vital, and with an offensive head coach and not many young OLs hitting the market, the Colts will most likely pay him.
Potential Targets:
Tyler Conklin/TE (Jets)
Stefon Diggs/WR (Texans)
Rasual Douglas/CB (Bills)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 4-13
Strongest Units:
Tight Ends - 14th / 68.3
Linebackers - 18th / 79.5
Quarterback - 22nd / 78.7
Weakest Units:
Running Backs - 29th / 64.9
Cornerbacks - 31st / 74.7
Safeties - 32nd / 65.3
Top Free Agents:
1) Brandon Scherff/OG - Scherff is considered one of the best interior O-linemen, and the Jaguars are in no position to let high-end talent walk; this is a no-brainer.
2) Andre Cisco/Saf - The Safety group has been one of the worst for several years, with Cisco starting for much of that time. The Jaguars need to move on, and even if they have to go with an older veteran, it will most likely be an upgrade.
3) Mac Jones/QB - Backup quarterbacks are becoming invaluable as O-line play has become poor across the league, and more QBs are mobile. Jones was serviceable when he had to replace Lawrence and won't ask for a significant pay increase. When you have a quality backup who isn't trying to move on to be a starter (or has any interest in doing so), you keep him.
Potential Targets:
Charvarious Ward/CB (49ers)
Jevon Holland/Saf (Dolphins)
Talanoa Hufanga/Saf (49ers)
Tennessee Titans - 3-14
Strongest Units:
Safeties - 5th / 78.9
Linebackers - 11th / 81
Edges - 16th / 72
Weakest Units:
Tight Ends - 21st / 65.4
Wide Receivers 25th / 67.2
Cornerbacks - 29th / 76.5
Top Free Agents:
1) Jerome Baker/LB - Baker will most likely be the cap casualty. He graded out lower than Luke Gifford (LB27/83.3) and Kenneth Murray Jr. (LB33/80.6). He is also rated slightly higher than Jack Gibbons, a protected free agent. That is three LBs who will most likely take less money even though they used trade capital for Baker when they moved Ernest Jones (LB20/84.5) to Seattle. Baker was the 42nd-ranked LB in Havoc and was supplanted by two younger players in, Murray and Gibbens, with the latter on IR since November.
2) Sebastian Joseph-Day/DL - Joseph-Day is a journeyman utility iDL who finished the year ranked 46th overall for DTs (70.7). The Titans are a base 3-4 but can be very multiple when they need to be. At 30 years old, he is still serviceable. If the Titans can get him at a reduced rate, there is a pathway for him to stay; otherwise, they will use his $4 million cap hit to upgrade other positions and find a rotational piece in the draft or free agency.
3) Quandre Diggs/Saf - Diggs is 32 and only played ~40% of the Titans snaps last year. The Titans need to get younger at the position and give Amani Hooker (S11/84.5) a partner that he can continue to grow with. Last season, they shipped Eric Moden to the Chargers (S37/78.4), who just extended the young hybrid Safety. Look for Diggs to enter free agency again and either be a late edition back to the Titans or on another team as the Titans add youth in free agency or the draft.
4 & 5) Tyler Boyd/WR and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine/WR - The Titans need massive upgrades at the position and still have Burke (WR162/54.3), a former 1st-rounder they need to develop (if it's not too late). The production in Tennessee had much to do with the quarterback position, but no receiver stood out. Boyd (WR106/60.8) is 31 and will likely be on another team next year. Westbrook-Ikhine (WR75/66.9) is younger (28) and will most likely not ask to break the bank, which means he has a pathway to stay.
Potential Targets:
Tommy Tremble/TE (Panthers)
DJ Reed/CB (Jets)
Chris Godwin/WR (Buccaneers)
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10-7*
Strongest Units:
Cornerback - 6th / 81.9
Interior Defensive Line - 9th / 72.2
Quarterback - 10th /85.7
Weakest Units:
Safeties - 19th / 73.2
Linebackers - 28th / 75.1
Edges - 29th / 72.2
Top Free Agents:
1) Chris Godwin/WR - Godwin (WR25/77.2) is coming off an ankle dislocation and a $20 million cap hit, all at 29. The Buccaneers had a great tandem of Mike Evans (WR2/85.6) and Godwin, but with injury and age, Tampa Bay may move off the veteran receiver. The Buccaneers are trying to work out a deal, but I don't see Godwin taking a considerable pay cut or working on a one-year contract.
2) Lavonte David/LB - Last year, the Bucs moved off of Devin White, and David's production plummeted this season (LB47/78.5). The LB position has been an issue all season. With a ~$9 million cap hit, it is unlikely David will come back to Tampa at 35 without a heavily reduced deal.
3) Anthony Nelson/ED - Edge is a critical need for the Buccaneers' defense. There isn't much production outside of Yaya Diaby (DE26/77). Tampa Bay is already set to move on from Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (DE140/61.8). Nelson (DE128/63) is up for a new contract, and it isn't likely that it will come from Tampa.
Potential Targets:
Dre Greenlaw/LB (49ers)
Malcolm Koonce/ED (Raiders)
Mekhi Becton/OG (Eagles)
Atlanta Falcons - 8-9
Strongest Units:
Running Backs - 2nd / 87.1
Safeties - 9th / 77.1
Linebackers - 16th / 79.6
Weakest Units:
Tight Ends - 26th / 63.9
Interior Defensive Line - 28th / 66.4
Edges - 32nd / 65.9
Top Free Agents:
1) Matthew Judon/ED - The trade for Judon (DE73/68.5) was supposed answer to Atlanta's Edge problem. Instead, he was average at best. The position needs a massive upgrade, and at 33 years old, it doesn't seem likely the Falcons will re-up on his contract.
2) Justin Simmons/Saf - Another aging free agent on a one-year deal as a stop-gap. Simmons (S67/69.3) was a serviceable partner for All-Pro Jesse Bates III, but at 32, it is unlikely he will return.
3) Mike Hughes/CB - Unless the Falcons want to make a splash in free agency (there are few good ones that could hit free agency), the Falcons should probably stick with Hughes, who finished the year as the 75th-ranked CB (77.5). There are so many needs at defensive line that it makes more sense to go after premium players at those positions and keep a player you know works in the system. AJ Terrell (CB34/82.5) has already proven he can be a lock-down CB, so having a solid #2 makes more sense. Plus, he won't ask to break the bank.
4) Drew Dalmon/C - Both Centers are free agents this year, and both played about 50% of the snaps. Dalmon is seen as one of the top Centers hitting the market, and with so many needs elsewhere, it may come down to cost. Some are projecting Dalmon to ask between $45-56 million, which is a steep price for a team already looking to rebuild much of the defense. Backup Ryan Neuzil is a restricted free agent and will most likely be retained at a much lower rate.
Potential Targets:
Juwan Johnson/TE (Saints)
Khalil Mack/ED (Chargers)
Josh Sweat/ED (Eagles)
Carolina Panthers - 5-12
Strongest Units:
Running Backs - 5th / 80.4
Cornerbacks - 7th / 81.8
Quarterback - 21st / 78.8
Weakest Units:
Linebackers - 21st / 77.4
Edges - 21st / 70.5
Tight Ends - 27th / 63.9
Top Free Agents:
1) Austin Corbet/iOL - Corbet is often injured and 30 years old. Regardless, if the Panthers feel he will be completely healthy to start next year, he is an option they know is relatively cheap, and he can play on a one-year contract.
2) Mike Jackson/CB - Jackson (CB39/81.9) is coming off a strong year played well opposite Jaycee Horn (CB11/87.6). His production means his initial asking price might be too high for the Panthers, who have more pressing needs in other areas of the defense. During the season, Carolina picked up former 4th-round pick Akayleb Evans. Though he played sparingly to end the season, he had production similar to that of a starter in Minnesota. The Panthers could move Evans into the field CB role and draft a rookie, which would cost less than they would likely have to pay to keep Jackson.
3) Xavier Woods/Saf - Carolina has already stated they will let him hit the market.
Potential Targets:
Juwan Johnson/TE (Saints)
Nick Bolton/LB (Chiefs)
Tre'von Moehrig/Saf (Raiders)
New Orleans Saints - 5-12
Strongest Units:
Linebackers - 7th / 82.3
Running Backs - 7th / 76.2
Tight Ends - 7th / 70.7
Weakest Units:
Interior Defensive Line - 25th / 67.2
Safety - 29th / 70.3
Wide Receivers - 30th / 63.6
Top Free Agents:
1) Chase Young/ED - Too many teams are looking for an Edge, and Young (ED50/72.5) is still considered a highly sought-after commodity. Likely, the Saints will let him walk.
2) Paulson Adebo/CB - Most athletes don't return fully from a femur break. Adebo ended the season as the sixth-best CB (89), and New Orleans might be able to bring him back on a 'prove it's deal at a lower cost. Young and Adebo have more upside at 26, and they are proven commodities as one of the better CBs in the league. To this point, Young has been far below his slotted draft selection.
3) Will Harris/Saf - Harris played exceptionally well last year as a starting Safety and has hybrid skills (Field Vision had him listed as a CB to start the season). With a new DC, he could become a casualty as Brandon Staley attempts to rebuild the roster into his mold. His defense is very different than the one Dennis Allen played. Most likely, Harris will hit free agency.
4) Lucas Patrick/OG - Though injured, Patrick played most of the snaps as a starter before he was hurt. With a new offensive head coach, he will most likely be asked to return on a one-year deal that is relatively cheap, like the one he was already on. He is 32, so New Orleans will probably let him test the market before bringing him back.
Potential Targets:
Talanoa Hufanga/Saf (49ers)
Charvarious Ward/CB (49ers)
Teair Tart/iDL (Chargers)
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