Four Games that Mattered from Week 10
Up to this point in the season, to recap the week that was in the NFL we’ve been focused on our key takeaways from the week that was. Many of those takeaways have been focused on the best teams in the league, but lots have been focused on the league's biggest disappointments as well. We’ve spent A LOT of time talking about the Jets, Cowboys and Bengals.
We’re now at the point in the season where we’ve separated the contenders from the pretenders, and there are a few high-leverage games that we can zero in on as really mattering to the playoff picture. So moving forward we’ll focus our weekly recap on taking a look at the most important games from the Weekend that was, and what we can learn from those games.
This week, we’re focused on four games that didn't disappoint:
Cincinnati vs. Baltimore
Detroit vs. Houston
Kansas City vs. Denver
Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Cincinnati vs. Baltimore: Let’s start in Baltimore, where we easily had the best Thursday Night game of the year, and potentially the game of the year so far.
Pivotal Moment: Chase Brown fumble in the third quarter. Brown's fumble game with Bengals leading 21-7, bleeding clock, and in the middle of a methodical drive that looked like the Bengals beginning to bleed away the clock.
What we learned about Cincinnatti: This is best 4-6 team we’ve seen in quite some time, but at this point they’ll need a miracle to not be the best team to miss the playoffs as well. Joe Burrow is in elite form, maybe the best he’s ever been. And Ja’Marr Chase is just elite, period. This maybe the best they’ve both ever played. But at the end of the day it might not matter for two reasons: 1) The Bengals secondary is atrocious. 2) This team is sloppy, poorly coached, and can’t get out of it’s own way. In this game, it was the Chase Brown fumble when firmly in control in the 3rd quarter (as well as a multiple missed tackled on defense).
What we learned about Baltimore: Lamar Jackson is super-human, and he’s better this year than he was in either of his first two MVP seasons. With that being said, if it’s possible, the takeaway about Baltimore is not a good one coming out of this game. Even with Jackson playing out of his mind, the Ravens we’re a 2-point conversation away from losing this game…and probably should have. While their offense is BY FAR the best offense in the league by Adjusted EPA/play, their defense is all the way down at 21st, making them by far the most unbalanced Top 5 team in the league. If Baltimore doesn’t sure up their secondary, it will be the reason they make another early playoff exit despite having the most dynamic and impossible to cover quarterback in the game.
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Detroit vs. Houston: Jared Goff threw 5 interceptions. Houston dominated the first three quarters. Detroit was never in this game – look at the game chart. And then, Detroit won. Because that’s what the best teams in the league do – win games when they don’t have their best, and things don’t go their way. And the Lions definitely didn’t have their best in this game.
Pivotal Moment: C.J. Stroud's interception to Detroit’s Carlton Davis on a woefully underthrown pass in the End-Zone in the third quarter.
What we learned about Houston: Houston was supposed to contend with the Chiefs for the AFC’s crown. They still might, but after 3 losses in their last 4 games, we are seriously concerned about the Texans, and even CJ Stroud. Stroud’s home/road splits have been widely discussed and debated, but what is less publicized is Stroud’s second half struggles this season. It almost cost them a against Buffalo earlier in the season, and it 100% did cost them on Sunday night against Detroit, as Houston went scoreless in the second half, highlighted by 2 interceptions from Stroud and a missed field goal from Ka’imi Fairbairn that likely cost them the game.
What we learned about Detroit: This team has multiple ways to win, which is what great teams have to have the ability to do. Detroit is the most balanced team in the league – 3rd in adjusted offensive EPA/play, 3rd in adjusted defensed EPA/play, accordingly to Field Vision. What this means is that when both units are hitting on all cylinders, they blow teams out. But they don’t need both to be at their peak to win. They can have an average night from both units, or a completely off night from one (see Jared Goff’s 5 interceptions on Sunday night), and have the other side of the ball carry them. Detroit’s defense didn’t allow a point in the second half on Sunday night and had two takeaways – which allowed Jared Goff and the Detroit offense time to find their footing just in time to win a critical game. Detroit is the best team in the NFC, and their resilience has as much to do with it as anything.
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Chiefs vs. Broncos: Its easy (and lazy) to say the Chiefs were lucky in this game. They weren’t. The breaks they get at the end of games aren’t by accident, as was the case with the blocked punt against Denver, as has been widely covered. But this game did expose a few things about both teams that are worth looking into.
Pivotal Moment: Patrick Mahomes missing Travis Kelce on 3rd down in the back of the end zone on the Chiefs final drive. Had this not happened, we’re not talking about the blocked kick, and would have gotten to see if Bo Nix could have taken the Broncos down for a touchdown drive to tie or seal the game.
What we learned about Denver: This is one of the best defenses in football. We shouldn’t be surprised – they rank 2nd in the league in adjusted defensive EPA/play, but watching this defense against Mahomes, Andy Reid and the Chiefs was a good confirmation exercise. They might have the best 4-man pass rush in the league, Nik Bonitto is an absolute blur and terrorized the Chiefs’ left tackles all afternoon, and when you pair that with a secondary that can play lethal man coverage, its a recipe for success against almost any offense. You pair that with Bo Nix who, while not spectactular, makes all the right throws and doesn’t shrink from the moment (even on the road in Arrowhead stadium against an undefeated, two-time defending champion) and the foundation is strong in Denver.
What we learned about Kansas City: Yes, they’re well coached. Yes, their culture breeds winning and big plays from dudes up and down the roster. Yes, they have the heart of a champion. But there are concerns all over the field coming out of this game for the Chiefs. The most glaring is that left tackle position. Wanya Morris isn’t that good. But let’s be honest, he’s a hell of a lot better than 2nd round pick Kingsley Suamataia, who’s snaps up to this point have been downright devastating to the Chiefs doing anything productive on offense. This is a major problem. If I’m the Chiefs, I’m also starting to worry about this defense, both with it’s ability to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks without blitzing, and holding up in coverage. The injury to CB2 Jaylen Watson really hurt, and if they don’t get elite play from Trent McDuffie (which they didn’t on Sunday) they could be in trouble. We’ll learn more in Buffalo in Week 11.
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Pittsburgh vs. Washington: This was a battle between upstart Washington and a Steelers team that people are still not fully ready to believe in. In the end, we learned that both teams are contenders, and here to stay in both the playoff and championship races in their respective conferences.
Pivotal Moment: Russell Wilson's touchdown pass to Mike Williams on third down to put the Steelers ahead late in the 4th quarter.
What we learned about Washington: Washington lost this game 28-27 against a game, well-coached, veteran Pittsburgh team that was built to win games like this. But the Commanders certainly have nothing to be ashamed of. Jayden Daniels continues to prove that he has what it takes to be an elite quarterback in this league, and seemed poised to lead Washington on the game winning drive before the Commanders drive stalled on what appeared to be a first down by TE Zach Ertz. Washington has another big one coming up against NFC East leader Philadelphia on Thursday, but this team appears to be built for the long haul.
What we learned about Pittsburgh: This might be the best offense that Tomlin has had since (the good version of) Ben Roethlisberger. It's official, Mike Tomlin was right and we were all wrong about the Steelers QB debate. Russell Wilson is a perfect fit for what Arthur Smith wants to do, is complemented by a stout, well-balanced run game, and I think we can all agree that Wilson made throws on that final drice that Justin Fields cannot. A dangerous offense with a stout defense is something that Mike Tomlin hasn't had in years, which is why the Steelers are actually a few games over .500. 5 to be exact. It's time we all start taking the Steelers seriously, even though it appears the Vegas oddmakers do not yet. They are 3.5pt underdogs at home against the Ravens next week.
That's all for now. Until Next week, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.
