Field Vision's Top 10 Receivers

As we at Field Vision, transition to offense, a new metric comes to the forefront. We evaluate offensive players using our proprietary metric called Threat Rating. You can read more about what is and how it’s calculated in Scott Bouska’s article explaining it. Essentially, we get a holistic view of offensive player performance based on a machine learning model that tells us how valuable certain outcomes are to winning, and gives points to a player every time he is attributed with that outcome. Threat rating uniquely looks at outcomes that a player is responsible for and tries not to account for outcomes that were created by teammates.

With that in mind, we first look at receivers and how they contribute to winning. Receiver is inherently the most dependent position on the field, requiring good Quarterback play to have success, but some receivers elevate their quarterback while others pull them down. We’re looking for the former, not the latter. We broke our top 10 receiver down into two tiers with a third category of honorable mention.

Tier 1: Elite

These players would be good anywhere and they serve to elevate the game of their quarterback. All receiver production is relative to quarterback play, but you could drop these 3 guys on any team, on any continent and they would produce winning football plays. They are the ultimate Alphas at the position.

Justin Jefferson (Vikings): Threat Rating - 99(1st)

Justin Jefferson missed some time in 2023, but on a per game basis, he was still one of the best receivers in the league trailing only Ceedee Lamb in raw Threat. In 2022, Jefferson put up the best raw Threat Score that we’ve seen to date. He’s done nothing but light the league on fire since entering in 2020 accounting for 5,899 yards in just 4 seasons. He enters 2024 as our best receiver in the league against zone coverage to go with his overall best rating. With the Vikings quarterback situation in flux, Jefferson is the ultimate security blanket for whoever has the ball.

Tyreek Hill (Dolphins): Threat Rating - 97.7 (2nd)

Tyreek Hill was traded away from the best Quarterback in the world after the 2021 season and has only seen his production increase. He has produced over 1,700 yards in each of his seasons in Miami and eclipsed 10k yards for his career. Hill brings a diverse skill set to the position. He is top 5 in the league in attacking deep and on short/intermediate routes. Hill is also top 5 against both zone and man coverage. Whatever a team needs on the outside, Hill can provide. The Dolphins have a plethora of skill on offense, but Hill is the key to whole engine.

Ceedee Lamb (Cowboys): Threat Rating - 97.6 (3rd)

CeeDee Lamb checks in at number 3 heading into the season and had the best raw threat score in the league for 2023. It’s not surprising since he had 135 receptions for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. Lamb ranks as our number 1 receiver against man coverage and also has our best Threat Rating in the league when lining up in the slot. However, that does not mean Lamb does all of his damage underneath as he’s top 10 in threat rating on both deep targets and short/intermediate routes. The Cowboys better figure out the Lamb situation fast because they’ll need him in 2024.

Tier 2: Production Machines

These players add obvious value in every situation. Some have elite quarterbacks already, but they serve to enhance that. They’re value can be separated from QB performance and still be apparent. The 7 players in Tier 2 round out our top 10:

Keenan Allen (Bears): Threat Rating - 92.4 (4th)

As Keenan Allen joins the Bears this season, he does so with 5 previous 100 catch seasons under his belt. Allen has not played a full season since 2019, but when he’s on the field, he does damage. He’s 4th in Threat Rating when lining up in the slot and the number 1 Threat receiver in the league on throws in the short to intermediate range, which fits well with D.J. Moore’s skill set as you’ll see below. Allen will join a loaded Bears receiver room to help rookie QB Caleb Williams.

Brandon Aiyuk (49ers): Threat Rating - 88.7 (5th)

Brandon Aiyuk had by far the best season of his career in his 4th campaign with the 49ers last season. He went for 1,342 yards on 12.8 yards per target. Aiyuk is a complete receiver ranking 7th in Threat against zone and 2nd against man coverage. He was also equally effective lining up as a slot or outside receiver and did damage in all areas of the field particularly deep with a 91.8 projected Threat score on deep targets. The 49ers would be wise to keep Aiyuk in the fold for years to come.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions): Threat Rating - 86.5 (6th)

Amon-Ra St. Brown scored a contract extension this off-season and with good reason. He has shown steady progression in production in each of his 3 seasons in Detroit capping out last year with 119 receptions for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns. St. Brown is ranked 3rd in Threat Rating out of the slot, but that doesn’t mean his damage is always close to the line of scrimmage. He is number 1 in our 2024 Projections for Threat of targets deep down the field. The Lions will rely on St. Brown for another monster season with OC Ben Johnson staying in place for another year and Jared Goff on his newly minted deal.

Amari Cooper (Browns): Threat Rating - 85.1 (7th)

Amari Cooper gets lost sometimes when talking about elite receiver production, but in a 9-year career, he’s been over 1,000 yards 7 times. He’s versatile- ranking top 10 in Threat against both zone and man coverage. Cooper also is the 4th best Threat receiver in the league on deep targets. Cooper has produced on 3 different teams in his career and in 2 seasons with the Browns, he’s caught passes from 5 different quarterbacks. Despite the constant carousel, Cooper is a constant as a Threat in the Browns offense. The Browns, of course, are hoping for a full season from Deshaun Watson to make it a little easier in 2024.

A.J. Brown: Threat Rating (Eagles) - 84.8 (8th)

A.J. Brown has been a monster since the off-season trade to Philadelphia two seasons ago. He showed flashes in Tennessee but the consistency over the last 2 years has catapulted him into the conversation among the best receivers in the league. He had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards last season. Brown is top 10 in the league against both zone and man coverage and on deep balls. He’s a true outside threat doing most of his damage lined up on the outside. Jalen Hurts will continue to lean on Brown as a security blanket in their deep threat offense.

Nico Collins (Texans): Threat Rating - 84.5 (9th)

Nico Collins enters 2024 looking to build on the chemistry he established with last season’s rookie darling, C.J. Stroud. Collins went for nearly 1,300 yards and 8 Touchdowns after modest outputs in limited time the prior two seasons. He does almost all of his damage from the outside as our 3rd best in Threat production generated from outside alignment and he also annihilates zone ranking 5th in Threat rating against zone coverage. Collins will have competition for targets this season with the newly acquired Stefon Diggs in the fold, but the Texans offense should be high flying yet again.

D.J. Moore (Bears): Threat Rating - 83.5 (10th)

DJ Moore is armed with a new contract in Chicago and with good reason. His first season in Chicago was his best in terms of Threat Rating since his second season with the Panthers. Moore went for 1,364 yards and 9 touchdowns on a Chicago offense with very limited quarterback play last season. He is our 3rd best receiver in the league against man coverage heading into 2024 and 6th on deep targets, a great complement to the skill set of Keenan Allen. The Bears have provided a diverse weapon set for rookie QB Caleb Williams. Now, he’ll just have to take advantage.

Honorable Mention

All these players have been strong producers, but for one reason or another don’t find themselves in the top 10 heading into 2024. Some (Puka Nacua) might be in one of the top 2 tiers for years to come. While others (Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Mike Evans) may have seen their top 10 days come and go, but they can still produce at a high level for their teams. Lastly, in the case of Jamar Chase, there’s no doubt, Tier 2 and probably even Tier 1 talent exists. He’ll just need to stay healthy and show it more consistently from a production standpoint.

• Puka Nacua (Rams): Threat Rating - 83.5 (11th)

• Davante Adams (Raiders): Threat Rating - 82.8 (12th)

• Stefon Diggs (Texans): Threat Rating - 82.8(13th)

• Jamar Chase (Bengals): Threat Rating - 82.6 (14th)

• Mike Evans (Buccaneers): Threat Rating - 81.9 (15th)

  As we continue to roll-out our Threat Ratings to the world, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback as always. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, and on our website fieldvisionsports.com