Field Vision's Super Bowl Preview

Here's what to watch for when each team has the ball.

When the Chiefs have the ball:

This year was supposed to be the season the Chiefs got back to being explosive, but that didn’t happen. Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown were going to be the high-octane injection that the offense hadn’t seen since Tyreek Hill. The two deep threats were supposed to create openings for Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, making it difficult for defenses to cover every part of the field.

That didn't happen. Worthy absorbed much of Rice's touches, but Hollywood has not played that much until now. Still, Mahomes and Andy Reid adjusted. Now, the Eagles will have to contend with everyone back except Rice.

Reid has created an offense that attacks the space left underneath coverages. If a defense wants to play man, it uses motion and formations to create leverage for its receivers. The constant pull and push of the offense makes it hard to defend. Still, if a defense gives up space downfield, Mahomes is more than prepared to strike.

Defenses on the Chiefs' schedule attempted to employ more man coverage, targeting what they perceived as a weaker receiving corps. After the regular season, Kansas City’s offense ranked sixth in man coverage percentage against. It didn't matter; KC ended up fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play against man coverage. Teams that opted for zone coverage had slightly better success; the Chiefs finished the season ranked 14th in EPA per play against zone.

The run game has been there, too, but it has been a mixed cast of Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco. Neither has been explosive, but both hard-nosed runners move the chains, which has been a trend this year for the Chiefs. Nothing has been ultra explosive, just a monotonous continual push forward into the end zone.

The Eagles' defense is filled with young talent, as six of their eleven starters have been drafted since 2022. One of the main issues with previous Philadelphia defenses has been their struggle to stop the run. However, this appears to have improved under Vic Fangio and the emergence of their two star interior linemen, Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis.

Philadelphia’s defense uses a Nickel structure (4-2-5) and plays it the third most in the NFL. Ni Cooper DeJean and Safety CJ Gardner-Johnson function as the secondary's leverage points, while All-Pro Zack Baun changes how the defensive front adjusts to formations.

The Eagles started the year poorly on offense and defense, finishing Week 4 with a 2-2 record after suffering a significant 33-16 loss to the Buccaneers. Fortunately, they secured victories against the Browns and Giants, their next two opponents. This was also when Ni DeJean got healthy and was inserted into the lineup. The defense hasn't looked back since.

At the end of the regular season, the Eagles were ranked first in EPA/play, second in EPA/pass, and first in EPA/run. They’ve also been the most dominant defense in the playoffs.

Fangio isn’t known for blitzing like his counterpart in the Chiefs' Steve Spagnuolo. The Eagles finished the regular season 28th in total blitz rate. Fangio uses alignments and coverages as ‘passive’ pressure to counter offenses.

Most think of Fangio as a two-high defensive coach, but that is only part of the scheme. For many fans and pundits, 'two-high' means Cover 2 or Tampa. In reality, the Fangio system is a mixed bag of zone coverages that all look alike at the snap of the ball. The Eagles may not do 'much.' However, they execute at an extremely high level. The coverage acts as a vice, compressing offenses and forcing low throws. The irony is that the Eagles face a team that doesn't mind playing this style. Something will have to give.

When the Eagles have the ball:

The Chiefs create space in the passing game using short motions, shifts, and unique formations. The Eagles' offensive philosophy is much more 'static.' Kellen Moore utilizes spread formations to create one-on-ones for his receivers and manufactures light boxes, meaning defenses must defend the run with six in the box. Their elite O-line handles the rest.

Barkley has had a historic year on the ground and is still one of the best-receiving threats for a RB in the league. Though Kellen Moore’s offense doesn’t feature him at volume as a receiver, he is explosive when he gets the ball in his hands in space. His appearance on the roster has taken away a lot of pressure for Jalen Hurts.

The Eagles' offense features a group of elite players. Saquon Barkley is considered one of the best running backs in the league and rushed for over 2,000 yards. A.J. Brown ranks as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL and currently sits fourth in Field Vision’s Threat Ratings with a score of 84.8. The combination of Brown and slot receiver DeVonta Smith is among the best in the league. Additionally, TE Dallas Goedert is recognized as one of the top ten tight ends in Field Vision's Threat Ratings and is an exceptional deep threat for his position.

While many analysts do not consider quarterback Jalen Hurts among the league's 'elite' quarterbacks, he is making his second Super Bowl appearance in just four seasons. A key factor in his Super Bowl runs has been his impressive rushing ability and tendency to avoid turnovers. Like the Kansas City Chiefs, the Philadelphia Eagles' offense is efficient, although it operates in a completely different style.

Two of their three losses occurred early in the season when Moore was trying to figure out how to incorporate all the talent on the roster. The third loss happened during an unusual shootout against the Commanders, during which Hurts suffered a concussion. Since his return, the offense has appeared unstoppable, particularly in their ground game.

The Chiefs ranked 13th in EPA per play for the season, 17th against the pass, and 13th against the run. When CB Jaylen Watson went down during Week 7 against the 49ers, the Chiefs had one of the stronger defenses in the NFL. Throughout the season, the defense did not perform at an elite level in terms of advanced metrics, but it was steady enough each week to support the offense in winning close games. It's now heading into the Super Bowl healthy.

The Chiefs operate a 4-3 base defense but often employ Nickel (4-2-5) and Dime (3-3-5 and 4-1-6) formations to adapt to their opponents. Their Dime package primarily features a 3-3 alignment, with linebackers Dru Tranquill, Nick Bolton, and Leo Chenal playing key roles. Tranquill and Chenal are hybrid off-ball linebackers capable of positioning themselves near the line of scrimmage.

This season, the Chiefs moved All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie outside full-time, forcing Spags to lean into his talent at LB. Leaving all three LBs on the field allows Kansas City greater flexibility in front structure against the run, which will be critical in their matchup with the Eagles. Spags is known for his ability to throw a counterpunch at just the right time, typically on a crucial down. We saw this against the Bills when they ran a five-man CB pressure to seal the game on 4th and 5. These zone pressures are a staple of KC’s game plans against their opponent’s protection schemes.

Coverage disguise is frequently mentioned concerning the Chiefs. Under Spagnuolo, the secondary has employed various complex rotations. Some of these, like the viral ring-around-the-rosy safety spinner rotations, are primarily for show and don't serve a practical purpose. However, most rotations are designed to confuse the opposing quarterback's reads. Like their offensive styles, the Chiefs and Eagles are on different defensive spectrums.

Spags is known as one of the more aggressive coaches in the league. While the Kansas City Chiefs don't have the highest blitz rates, they utilize Cover 0 at an exceptionally high level, second only to the Raiders. Additionally, Kansas City presses its CBs more than any other team in the league, which allows it to be effective in blitzing—evidenced by the last play of the Bills game and last year’s Super Bowl.

These pressures, whether perceived or concrete, drain opposing offenses, which must constantly stay aware of the Chiefs’ potential pressure points. Hurts, who has struggled versus pressure at times, will have to contend with Spags' onslaught of different looks.

Conclusion

Neither offense stands out as elite on paper, but Kansas City has a significant advantage with Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback. Jalen Hurts will likely need to step up and lead his team to victory by throwing the ball at some point in the game. The Chiefs' Spagnuolo will probably focus on stopping the run. Kansas City may be in a challenging situation if Saquon Barkley can rush for 150 yards and score multiple touchdowns.

The Eagles have one of the most complete defenses in the NFL, and Kansas City will have to be patient and take advantage of opportunities—something they are built for.

Kansas City is known for surprising their opponents with unexpected plays, often waiting for the right moments to showcase them. When the Chiefs faced the Eagles last time, they demonstrated the ‘Corn Dog’ play, which exploited Philadelphia's man coverage rotations in response to quick motions.

In their game against Buffalo, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo held off on pressuring quarterback Josh Allen until the most crucial moment. Expect Andy Reid to unveil a creative play during a critical moment in the game.

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As we dive in, we look forward to the conversation, debate, and your feedback. Hit us up at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.