Early Game Matchups to Watch
We are finally here! The NFL's 2024 season is upon us. Let's examine the early matchups for this week and what to look for while you watch the games.
Ravens vs. Chiefs (8:20 pm EST, NBC/Peacock)
1) Kansas City's defense vs. the Ravens' run game
A lot has been made about Baltimore's acquisition of Derrick Henry and what his addition will spell for their run game. Lamar Jackson is arguably the best running quarterback to play the game, and adding a battering ram in Henry can only amplify his ability to run. Defenses can no longer overcompensate for his legs.
Though Henry is over 30 and his best days are behind him, he is still very dangerous. Baltimore planned to pair Henry with Keaton Mitchell, who was explosive at the end of last year. That won't happen with Mitchell sidelined for at least four weeks.
Kansas City will have to contend with the duo of Jackson and Henry. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has proven he knows how to attack protections and design coverage schemes to limit passing attacks. One concern heading into this game will be when the Ravens decide to run the ball. The Chiefs had the 27th best Run DVOA last year and are consistently in the bottom half of the league (FTN). The modern game is won by throwing the ball, but if the Ravens can get up on the Chiefs, they can sit on the ball.
2) Lamar Jackson vs. Steve Spagnuolo
Last year, Spags spammed the Baltimore quarterback with pressure, blitzing almost 50% of their snaps. The design was to accelerate Lamar's process and bottle him in the pocket. When running play-action, the Chiefs consistently put pressure on Jackson, who is best at throwing behind run-action.
Lamar ended the day going 20/37 for 272 yards, one TD and one interception. Though he had decent numbers, the Chiefs could keep a cap on the Ravens' passing game. Zay Flowers had a long of 54, and Nelson Agolor had a reception for 39 years, but the Baltimore passing attack was more quantity than quality outside those two passes.
For the Ravens to win this game, they will have to be able to handle the pressure the Chiefs throw at them. Last year, Kansas City won the turnover battle and consistently got the Ravens behind the chains on early downs. Jackson had to throw the ball, and Baltimore could not control a game that ended 17-10 in favor of the Chiefs.
3) Kyle Hamilton vs. Travis Kelce
Though the Ravens lost Geno Stone to divisional rival Cincinnati, they acquired Chicago Bears starting Safety Eddie Jackson. Though that will not excite anyone in Baltimore, the addition allows Hamilton to play near the box on early downs. The ability to run 'Big' Nickel packages will be crucial in this rematch of the AFC Championship Game.
Last year, TE Travis Kelce went off against the Ravens with an 11-catch, 116-yard, and 1 TD performance. The future Hall of Famer tore up the Ravens' use of single-high coverage. Baltimore featured more Cover 1 than they had previously, with Hamilton shadowing Kelce. This year, Baltimore will need a more comprehensive plan to limit Kelce's catches and force others, like Rashee Rice, to pick up the slack.
Last year, Kansas City had the fifth-highest usage of 13 personnel and the fourth-highest usage of 12 personnel. In both cases, the multi-TE groupings were used to pass the ball.
What does this mean? With Hollywood Brown out for Week 1, I can see the Chiefs utilizing 'bigger' formations to get the Ravens into playing more base, which gives Kelce a matchup advantage if Hamilton isn't shadowing him. However, that didn't matter last year.
Packers vs. Eagles (8:15 pm EST. Peacock)
1) Dallas Goedert vs. the Packers Safeties
Outside of Xavier McKinney, the Packers will be trotting out a bunch of unknowns at Safety. Though Green Bay has talent in the backend, three rookies will garner significant playing time against a dangerous offense. The Packers are also a relative unknown, with a defensive coordinator from the college level, where he primarily ran Cover 1 at Boston College and gave nothing away in the preseason.
The defensive system in Green Bay is similar to the one utilized in San Fransisco, New York (Jets), and Houston. There will be a high volume of Cover 1 and Quarters alongside your traditional Cover 3. That will likely put McKinney, who is familiar with Goedert from his days with the Giants, in primary coverage on the TE. Hafley could decide to rotate and place Javon Bullard (5-10 198) on the big TE; the size advantage tips to Philly.
One other factor is the use of Saquan Barkley in the offense. If Hafley feels like offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will begin to utilize the RB in his offense (he has yet to show he will at a high volume), that could shift the Safeties' focus to the RB, placing a linebacker on Goedert, another advantage for the Eagles.
2) DeVonta Smith & AJ Brown vs. Eric Stokes & Jaire Alexander
Alexander is the top-paid CB in the NFL. He only played in four games in '21 and seven games last year. He's been inconsistent since the 2020 season when he finished third in Field Vision's Havoc Ratings. On the other side, former first-round pick Eric Stokes has yet to live up to the hype. Green Bay did not pick up his fifth-year option in the offseason. Essentially, both CBs are playing for their contracts.
The pair is rewarded with a Week 1 matchup against two of the best outside WRs in the NFL. Smith and Brown both can explode for massive gains at any time. Brown is the production monster from the outside, destroying man and zone coverage. Smith is a little more passive but can take over CeeDee Lamb's roles in Dallas or Keenan Allen's in LA under Kellen Moore.
Both CBs will be tasked with competing against these two top WRs all night. If Hafley plans to run more man than zone, both will have little help. Brown has consistently been one of the best man-beaters in the NFL, but Smith can sometimes be inconsistent. He finished 49th in Man Coverage Threat Ratings last season.
3) Kellen Moore vs. Jeff Hafley
The main question here is how Moore will utilize Saquan Barkley, one of the best dual-threat RBs in the NFL. Moore used his RBs less than the league average in the passing game in Dallas and LA. Last year, the Chargers ranked dead last in RB touch rate (35%), receptions (50), and 29th in Target Percentage (14.6%)
Barkley can run a full route tree, but Moore must prove he will do this. Adding the RB into the passing game can change the math in favor of the offense because they can dictate that matchup. Hafley will have to decide how he wants to counter.
If Hafley goes with man coverage, Brown can have a huge day. If the Packers go with more zone coverage, Hafely must vary his schemes to confuse Hurts. Regardless, Moore has proven that his offense can put up big numbers when defenses don't match up with his personnel.
One critical piece is the Packers blitz game. Hafley also stems from the Rex Ryan tree, which has one of the better pressure packages in the NFL. Green Bay showed some of the lowest amounts of pressure in the preseason, most likely to hide what Hafley had planned. Last year, teams sent the house versus Hurts, who struggled to adjust. Moore needs to have a plan to assist Hurts when Hafley sends pressure.
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