Dissecting the NFL's Quarterback Field
It's quarterback week at Field Vision, and the new season is finally upon us. The most critical position in sports is also an enigma for many GMs and pundits trying to wade through data, film, and visual analysis. In the NFL, winning a Super Bowl nowadays is almost impossible without an elite QB. Looking back at the last ten years, it's pretty resounding:
Mahomes, Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Mahomes, Brady, Foles*, Brady, Manning, Brady
Only one quarterback truly stands out in that list: Foles. He caught lightning and led the Eagles to their first Super Bowl ever. The rest are Hall of Famers, and there is at least a baseline argument for the Hall for Stafford.
Great quarterbacks typically are great regardless of how you cut the data. That is the pattern heading into '24, too. With the season approaching, I'll use Field Vision's Threat Ratings to cut up quarterback production and highlight the top five in each metric. Some names might surprise you.
One thing that is different about Threat Ratings for quarterbacks that others do not account for is WR production. We try to cut the cord between the QB data and WR data. Of course, football is a team game, and a quarterback needs WRs to catch the ball and get open, but we try to isolate the position as much as possible.
For instance, Patrick Mahomes doesn't get dinged because he didn't have a WR in the top 64 WRs in Threat Ratings. On the other hand, Joe Burrow illustrates how the quarterback Threat Ratings can isolate play even when you have arguably the best WR corp in the league. Consistency and production matters, which is why you might be surprised Dak and Jared Goff are high on our lists.
Image: Peter Aiken / Associated Press
To start, let's establish our top five projected quarterbacks heading into the '24 season in quarterback Threat Ratings:
Josh Allen (Bills)
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
Jared Goff (Lions)
Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
These projections are based on on-field performance and not preference. As stated, Threat Ratings answer the question about production and performance. For instance, Lamar Jackson (Ravens) is sixth on this list. He typically gets dinged because his passing Threat Ratings are below average. He's ranked 19th in overall passing from '23. But his running ability is far superior to anyone else, which raises his overall grade.
Image: Eric Seals / USA TODAY NETWORK
Best QBs Versus the Blitz? Here's the Top 5:
Josh Allen (Bills)
Jared Goff (Lions)
Jordan Love (Packers)
Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
Brock Purdy (49ers)
>> Who struggles: Trevor Lawrence (Jagaurs) came in at 20th, and Tua (Dolphins) came in 21st.
Image: Ryan Kang / Getty Images
Best QBs when Defenses Don't Blitz? Here they are:
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
Josh Allen (Bills)
Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
Jared Goff (Lions)
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)
>> Who struggles: Jordan Love drops to 20th
Image: AP Photo/Roger Steinman
Best QBs Versus Man Coverage?
Josh Allen (Bills)
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
Justin Herbert (Chargers)
Sam Howell (Commanders -> Seahawks)
>> Who struggles: CJ Stroud (Texans) comes in at 23rd
Best QBs Versus Zone Coverage:
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
Jared Goff (Lions)
CJ Stroud (Texans)
Josh Allen (Bills)
Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
>> Who struggles: The rookie starters Bryce Young (Panthers) and Will Levis (Titans) sunk to the bottom of the rankings versus zone.
Image: USATSI
Who are the best pure Drop Back passers?
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
Josh Allen (Bills)
Dak Prescott (Cowboys)
Jared Goff (Lions)
Derek Carr (Saints)
>> Who struggles: Tua comes in at 21st.
And finally - who are the best when using Play-Action?
Tua (Dolphins)
Jared Goff (Lions)
Josh Allen (Bills)
Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
Geno Smith (Seahawks)
>> Who struggled: Our rookies (Young/Levis) are back, with both finishing near the bottom.
The Beakdown
So, what did we learn? There are only two elite quarterbacks in the game today: Mahomes and Allen. Dak is clearly third, and Goff is right behind him. Goff has had an amazing transformation from a quarterback who couldn't process to one of the best at his position against the blitz.
Some quarterbacks, like Love, T-Law, and Tua, are vastly different depending on what they are doing on the field. Green Bay's $200 million man in Love is great versus the blitz but is below average when required to progress through his reads. The Jaguars' T-Law struggles mightily when teams blitz him, but he can be a top-five quarterback when he has time to breathe. That is why he is such an enigma for pundits and fans. Finally, Tua struggles as a dropback passer, but when placed behind a play-action offense excels and makes the top of our list.
A couple of outliers show up in these top-five rankings as well. Derek Carr is good when asked to drop back and pass the ball. Justin Herbert, who is starting to be viewed similarly to Lawrence, is great against man coverage. Herbert and the 49ers' Brock Purdy have similar player profiles in that they are elite in one or two things but at or near the top ten in everything else.
Seattle backup Sam Howell is excellent against man coverage and dropback passing (#6) but is below average in most other cuts. Speaking of the Seahawks, Geno Smith is one of the best in the NFL when running play-action. He's also good when no one blitzes (#8) and against zone (#7).
Some names don't appear at all, which might be surprising. Joe Burrow, for instance, only played in ten games. In those games, he struggled, finishing 21st in overall passing Threat Ratings. In the previous years, Burrow finished right behind Allen and Mahomes, respectively. There's no reason he can't get back on track in '24.
Aaron Rodgers was hurt on the Jets' first drive of the season. We project him to be the 14th-best quarterback at Field Vision in the upcoming season. Rodgers last had a truly great season in 2020 when he finished fourth in Threat Ratings.
Jalen Hurts is in our top five overall but doesn't appear in any of our top five rankings. He consistently ranks in the top ten in most of our cuts and adds tremendous value in the run game (#4). Hurts finishes high in overall Threat Ratings but misses the top five in other areas. For instance, he finished sixth against the blitz and seventh in dropback passing.
Brock Purdy is in a similar mold to Hurts: consistent. The 49ers quarterback cracks the top five against the blitz, but we don't see his name again. Purdy is in or near the top ten in most metrics. He's elite against the blitz and in the intermediate zone (#5), which is why so many see him as a system quarterback.
Finally, there is Lamar. In reality, Jackson is an average passer. He excels in deep throws (#8) and is in the top five in play-action. Jackson is eleventh against the blitz, 18th when teams don't blitz, twelfth against man and 15th against zone coverage, and 20th in pure dropback passing. Analytically, he struggles at the most quarterback-y elements of the game. Still, he is one of the best running quarterbacks of all time, which, like Hurts, elevates his rankings. We have him as the sixth-best quarterback heading into '24.
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As we dive in, we look forward to the conversation, debate, and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.
