Delineating the 'haves' and have-nots' through 9 NFL weeks

Let’s call this past Sunday “Separation Sunday.” We are halfway through the NFL regular season, and Sunday was a day where we clearly delineated the “haves” and the “have nots” around the NFL. At the current time there are 9 teams (nine!) that are 2-6 or worse: The Patriots, Dolphins, Browns, Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Giants, Panthers and Saints. That’s 28% of the league, effectively done for the season.

On the other end of the spectrum – if you we’re a betting man (which I happen to be), there were 6 teams that we’re favored by 5 points or more in Week 9, and you would’ve hit big if you parlayed all six of those teams to win. +397 to be exact (Don’t ask me why I know that…). That’s the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Bengals, Eagles and Vikings. Throw in the Lions dominant win over the Packers, plus the Commanders and Falcons, and a clear upper tier is beginning to emerge across the NFL.

We are choosing to start our Week 9 takeaways with the positives across the league. But don’t worry – there we’re plenty of negatives, and we’ll get to those as well.

1. The Lions are officially the best team in the league. Let me be clear here. I’m not saying the Lions are going to win the Super Bowl. I did pick the Chiefs to beat the Lions before the year started, and I still think there’s a lot of growth to be had with the Chiefs offense, especially seeing what that offense can be with DeAndre Hopkins on Monday night. But right now, there is no question the Lions are the best team in the NFL. This weekend Dan Campbell’s team went into Green Bay in nasty weather, got their most impactful defensive player thrown out of the game in the 2nd quarter, and still handled the Green Bay packers. This team is now built to win multiple ways. They can maul you in the run game, dissect you with play-action, or use a physical defense to win a sloppy, low-scoring game on the road. The Lions are now 40-15 in their last 55 games against the spread, and it’s because they have been dominating teams. This is a team that is MUCH more balanced than they were last year, have a defense that is improving, and an offense that is absolutely lethal and punishes teams. I get that the Chiefs are the Chiefs, are still undefeated, and still wear the crown until somebody takes it from them (which I think the Lions will have to do in the Super Bowl). But for now, there is no question who the best team is on a week-to-week basis. It’s Dan Campbell’s squad, and I’m not sure it’s particularly close.

   

2. Someone besides the 49ers will win the NFC West (and it won’t be the Seahawks). Why, you ask, are we talking about the 49ers on their bye week? Well, there is no more interesting division in football than the NFC West right now. You’ve got 4 teams between 5-4 and 4-5. It’s anybody’s race. And on Sunday, two teams emerged as legit challengers to the 49ers crown. Let’s talk Cardinals first. I’m not entirely sure what the Cardinals identity is, but they can do a little bit of everything, and they keep winning games. Their run-game is steady, they have playmakers in the passing game, and Jonathan Gannon has their defense playing better every week. This weekend they might have finished the Bears season. They made a team that went blow-for-blow with the Commanders last week look silly and lost on offense. This was never really a game. They have a half-game lead in the division, and have already beaten the 49ers and Rams. It just might be time for us to take the Cardinals seriously. The other challenger in this division is the Rams, who get more healthy by the week. A team that we had left for dead three weeks ago is suddenly 4-4, and just notched back to back wins against the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks in Seattle. The reality is, when this offense is healthy it’s as good as any, the defense is young but improving every week, and this team just knows how to win close games. As I said last week, they are likely the best Coach/Quarterback duo in the NFC West, which means we shouldn’t count them out.

3. The Bears are toast. We said we would get to the bad from this weekend. And now to that portion of the programming. The line in the NFL is a fine one, and the margin for error slim. The Bears were a Tyrique Stevenson brain fart away from being 5-2 and coming off an impressive win against the Commanders. Instead? That hail mary against Washington might have been the turning point in a season that they will be unable to recover from. What a difference a week and 1 play makes. The Bears are now 4-4, just got shellacked by the Cardinals, staring an impossibly hard schedule in the face, and it seems like Eberflus might have completely lost the locker room. The good news for the Bears? They have a promising young Quarterback, and nothing that happens the remainder of this year is likely to change that. The bad news? Any hope of making the playoffs this year is done, and Matt Eberflus is likely to be gone as a result. They could be staring at a fresh start in 2025, which may not be all bad.

4. A fresh start in New Orleans. While we’re on the topics of fresh starts, the Saints fired Dennis Allen on Monday morning. Was it deserved? Absolutely. The Saints lost an embarrassing game on Sunday to the Carolina Panthers, who, by all statistical measures have been a historically bad team. Was it a half a season too late? Also, absolutely. Dennis Allen has a lifetime record of 26-53 as a head coach, and has never really shown the ability to be a competent head coach and leader of an NFL organization. I’m not sure why Mickey Loomis and the Saints thought that was going to change this year. Unlike the Bears, I don’t see a lot of silver lining here. The Saints don’t have a bright future at quarterback (despite the social media craze, Spencer Rattler has looked terrible). They have an aging roster, a terrible salary cap situation, and no vision or direction as an organization. This was 100% the right move by the Saints – it’s time to get someone into the organization that can provide that vision and direction. But it really has to sting that they are now 12-24 months behind that rebuild than they realistically should have been.

5. Finally, the Cowboys. That’s really all I have to say, right? We’ve spared ourselves (and you all) from talking about the Cowboys over the last several weeks here. They didn’t really give us anything worth talking about. But after a loss in Atlanta this weekend which wasn’t near as close as the final score appeared, the Cowboys are officially in a state of disarray, likely unrecoverable in the 2024 season. They are now 3-5, have shown zero ability to beat good teams, have a defense that gets worse by the week, and an offense that can’t run the ball or move with any type of consistency unless they are down by two touchdowns or more. Let’s look quickly at the cornerstones of their organization: The head coach is a lame duck, and likely gone after this season. The quarterback – highest paid in the league, by the way – has proven to be good, but not great and is yet to win meaningful games in the playoffs. They have a retread defensive coordinator who clearly took what was a dangerous defense and turned it into something that is much worse. And finally, a defensive cornerstone who appears to take his job as head of content for bleacher report football more seriously than he does actually playing football. Things have gone from bad to worse in Dallas, and I’m not sure what the path forward is. I'm pretty positive Jerry isn’t sure what the path forward is either. His “all-in” proclamation is looking worse and worse by the day, and likely to leave the organization in flames by year's end. The only thing we have to look forward to from here on out is the content. Could make for a fun Thanksgiving.

   

That’s it for this week. We’ve got haves, and we’ve got have nots. And the battle lines have been clearly drawn….just in time for the NFL script-writers to throw us a curve ball in Week 10. Until Next week, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.