Best Bets Sunday Week 11

It's an interesting slate this Sunday highlighted by the Chiefs and the Bills playing for positioning in the AFC. If the Chiefs win, the 1 seed is all but locked up, but if the Bills come out on top, there's a lot of jockeying left to do. There's also the top spot in the AFC North up for grabs with the Ravens and Steelers facing off. Go into the Best Bets tab in the App to see all of our Best Bets, but here's a sampling of our favorites.

1. Jared Goff Over 221 Pass yards: Jacksonville is dead last in our Adjusted Drop back EPA/play on defense this year meaning they've allowed a lot of explosive plays in the pass game. Goff will be looking for a bounce back after a five interception game in week 10. We project him 7.4 percent over his total in this one.

2. George Pickens Over 69.5 Receiving yards: Pickens has been on fire since Russell Wilson took over as the starting quarterback in Pittsburgh. His ADOT this season is 13.9 with a 28 percent target share and he's averaged at least 18 yards per catch in each game with Wilson as the starter. By my math, that's 4 catches to go over this total.

3. Sam Darnold Under 240.5 Pass Yards: Despite their putrid 2-7 record, Tennessee's pass defense has been serviceable this year. They rank 11th in adjusted drop back EPA/play. We expect the Vikings to win and potentially control the game throughout limiting Darnold's opportunity or need to air it out. We project Darnold 5.6 percent under his total in this contest.

4. Drake London Under 60.5 Receiving Yards: So far this season, Zay Flowers is the only receiver in 10 games that's been able to torch the Broncos defense for more than 80 yards, going for 127 in week 9. Denver is 2nd overall in adjusted EPA/play and 7th against the pass. They've also done a great job limiting top targets. We project London 8.5 percent under his total in this one.

5. Christian McCaffrey Over 79.5 Rush yards: McCaffrey seemingly picked up right where he left off in his first week back from injury and the Seahawks rush defense is 28th in the league by our adjusted EPA/play metric. We show advantages for McCaffrey at the point of the attack, with light boxes and in personnel. We like him 9.8 percent over his rushing total in this game.

As always, we look forward to the conversation, debate and your feedback. Hit us at @fieldvisionmi on X, @fieldvisionsports on Instagram, or on our website www.fieldvisionsports.com.